Texas Tech football bold predictions for Orange Bowl CFP quarterfinal vs. Oregon

New Year’s Day has three College Football Playoff games, kicking off with the Orange Bowl as Oregon faces Texas Tech. As the two prepare to face off, it is time to make three bold predictions about Texas Tech at the Orange Bowl.

The Red Raiders finished 12-1 on the year. They opened up 6-0 before a four-point loss to Arizona State. In that game, they were without Behren Morton, their stud quarterback, and the Sun Devils still had Sam Levitt in the offense. The team would rebound to win five straight to end the regular season, including a 22-point win over BYU. They had a rematch with BYU for the Big 12 Championship, and were dominant, winning 34-7.

Meanwhile, Oregon has been solid this year as well. They are also 12-1 on the season. After opening 5-0, they would suffer their only loss of the season, falling 30-20 to Indiana. They would win their six games of the regular season, but fail to qualify for the Big Ten Championship due to both Indiana and Ohio State being undefeated. The Ducks faced James Madison in the first round of the CFP, dominating the game 51-34.

Now the two teams will face off for a spot in the semifinals, but while Texas Tech is technically the underdog, it will be their game to lose.

Dante Moore turns the ball over at least once

Oregon has been one of the top offensive units in the nation this year. They are ninth in the nation in points per game and eighth in yards per game. They are 13th in the run and 41st in the pass. Dante Moore has been the star of the Oregon offense this year. He has passed for 3,046 yards and 28 touchdowns this year. He has also run for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the quarterback has thrown eight interceptions this year. Two of them came against James Madison last game. Still, another one was in the close victory over Iowa, in which he threw for just 112 yards and was without a touchdown. Further, he threw two picks against the other top defense that the quarterback played this year. In the game against Indiana, he passed for just 186 yards, a touchdown, and two picks in that game.

The Indiana defense is the most difficult defense that Oregon has faced this season. Indiana was able to get pressure on Moore, sacking him six times, and also having the pressure lead to two turnovers. Texas Tech is 23rd in the nation in sack rate this year. This starts with David Bailey. He led the team with 13.5 sacks, while also having three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. Meanwhile, Romello Height has nine sacks this year, with two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.

The pressure is going to help Brice Pollock or Jacob Rodriguez force a turnover. Pollock has six pass breakups and five interceptions, plus a fumble recovery. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has six pass breakups, four interceptions, seven forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. One of those two will come away with a turnover in this game at the expense of Moore.

Cameron Dickey puts on a show

Texas Tech has been stellar on offense this season. They are third in the nation in points per game and ninth in yards per game. Meanwhile, they are 12th in the pass and 37th in the run. Behren Morton has been great. He has passed for 2,643 yards and 22 touchdowns this year, while throwing just four interceptions. While Morton has been a star this year, he is not going to be the star of this game. The biggest weakness in the Oregon defense has been against the run, where they are 22nd. Texas Tech is going to take advantage of that.

J’Koby Williams has been solid on the ground this year, with 787 yards and six touchdowns. Still, the star of this game is going to be Cameron Dickey. Dickey has run for 1,095 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. He has scored in five of his last six games on the ground. In the one game he did not score on the ground in the second half of the season, he scored in the receiving game. Only once this year has Dickey not scored either on the ground or through a reception.

He is also averaging nearly 100 yards of offense between rushing and receiving yards per game in the last five games. With the Oregon defense needing to focus on Morton and the passing game, Dickey is going to have a massive game in this one. He is going to run for over 80 yards and score twice in this game, helping Texas Tech secure the victory.

It is a low-scoring defensive battle

Texas Tech is second in the nation in opponent points per game and second in opponent yards per game. They are the best in the nation against the run and 21st against the pass. Further, Texas Tech has been exceptional on third downs on defense. They are eighth in the nation in opponent third-down conversion, which is going to lead to plenty of punts. If the Ducks can drive the field, Texas Tech has also been great in the end zone. They are 41st in opponent red zone scoring this season.

Meanwhile, the Ducks have been stellar on defense as well. They are eighth in opponent points per game and fifth in opponent yards per game. They have also been great at stopping big plays, primarily in the pass game, where they are third against the pass. Oregon is 28th in defensive third-down conversions as well. The one major difference has been their defense in the red zone. Oregon is 121st in opponent red zone score. Texas Tech is going to have some trouble moving the ball at times in this game, but they will score when they get into the red zone.

This is going to result in two things. First, Texas Tech is going to win the game, upsetting the Ducks. Secondly, it is going to be a low-scoring game. Texas Tech gets the 24-17 win in this game and moves on to the semifinal at the Peach Bowl.

The post Texas Tech football bold predictions for Orange Bowl CFP quarterfinal vs. Oregon appeared first on ClutchPoints.