Spurs vs. Thunder 2025 NBA Cup Semifinals prediction, odds, pick

Two of the hottest teams in the league collide in the NBA Cup semifinals for their first meeting of the 2025-2026 season. The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have combined for just one loss in December and will both ride momentum into their Saturday night prime-time matchup.

The Thunder bring an NBA-best 24-1 record into the meeting and have not lost since dropping a 121-119 contest to the Portland Trail Blazers on Nov. 5. The defending champions look even better this season than ever before and enter the semifinal matchup off a dominant 138-89 win over the Phoenix Suns.

The Spurs enter the game on a mini two-game win streak and winners in four of their last five outings. San Antonio has surprisingly been one of the most consistent teams over the last month, going 9-3 in its last 12 games, all without Victor Wembanyama. The 21-year-old is expected to return for the first time since Nov. 14.

NBA Cup odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Spurs vs. Thunder NBA Cup odds

San Antonio Spurs: +10.5 (-105)

Oklahoma City Thunder: -10.5 (-115)

Over: 232.5 (-105)

Under: 232.5 (-115)

Spurs vs. Thunder key injuries

Spurs

Victor Wembanyama, Probable (Left calf strain)

Thunder

Isaiah Joe, Out (Left knee contusion)

Spurs vs. Thunder betting trends

• The game will be played at the T-Mobile Arena, making it the Spurs’ fifth consecutive game away from home
• Thunder own a league-best 24-1 record, but are just 14-11 against the spread
• Thunder are 14-11 to the over
• Thunder are 10-6 against the spread as a double-digit favorite
• Thunder are 7-6 against the spread on the road
• Spurs are 12-10-2 against the spread
• Spurs are 4-6-2 against the spread with Wembanyama playing
• Spurs are 14-10 to the over
• Spurs are 5-7-1 against the spread on the road

Keys to Spurs vs. Thunder matchup

The biggest key to the matchup is Wembanyama’s expected return, which theoretically boosts the Spurs’ surging stock. San Antonio actually has a better record without its star center than with him, but is clearly a better team with the 7-foot-4 specimen on the floor.

The Thunder have been elite at shutting down opposing centers, but they have not faced many like Wembanyama. Nobody compares to Wemby, but Oklahoma City struggled to defend Alperen Sengun and Jaren Jackson Jr., the two most athletic big men it has faced thus far.

Wembanyama’s return is the headline, but the Spurs will need to sustain their elite three-point production to keep their upset bid alive. San Antonio is only average from deep on the year, but it has increased its production over the last month, during which it has sunk 14.4 triples per game.

If there is one weakness to this Thunder defense, it is behind the arc. Oklahoma City allows 14.2 three-pointers made per game, 23rd in the league. They also rank in the bottom half of the league in three-point attempts allowed and opponent three-point percentage.

On the flip side, the Thunder have been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads an isolation-heavy offense, with Oklahoma City averaging the third-most points per game from isolation.

However, the Spurs only allow 6.5 points per game off isolation, seventh-fewest in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander figures to face the physical defense of Stephon Castle for the majority of the NBA Cup semifinal.

Wembanyama’s presence also bolsters the Spurs’ defense, which occasionally struggled to defend the paint without him. Wembanyama now brings his 3.6 blocks per game back to the table to pair with their aggressive perimeter defense.

Both teams enter the game off three days of rest, but travel could be a factor for the Spurs, who have played nine of their last 10 games on the road. The schedule has not affected them too much, however, with San Antonio looking its best over the last month.

Spurs vs. Thunder prediction and pick

The Thunder have been the best team in the league by a country mile, but the Spurs have quietly been creeping up to that level over the last month. While Oklahoma City should still be favored, it is interesting that the line has not moved much since the news of Wembanyama’s return, which should not be the case.

The Thunder, as dominant as they have been, are not great at covering double-digit spreads. The Spurs have only lost by 10 or more points three times this season, and only once with Wembanyama in the lineup.

Both teams are nearly identical in pace and have gone over the total in eight of their last 10 combined games. But with Wembanyama bringing his elite 105.3 defensive rating back to the lineup, expect a tougher, more calculated battle with increased stakes and each team neutralizing each other’s strengths.

Spurs-Thunder NBA Cup Semifinals Prediction & Pick: Spurs +10.5 (-105), Under 232.5 (-115)

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