By Karl Matchett
Since Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Bournemouth got here up from the Championship in 2021/22, it’s appeared a a lot harder activity for second tier sides to climb to the highest after which keep there. Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all did the yo-yo throughout ‘23 and ‘24, then Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich repeated the trick in limp trend from ‘24 to ‘25. Early days in 25/26 it’d nonetheless be, however Sunderland specifically are making an amazing begin to bucking that development: 4 wins from eight up to now and seventh within the still-fledgeling desk. However the Black Cats aren’t outscoring the opposition a lot as staying in video games by organisation and defensive decision, earlier than seeking to let their final-third high quality inform. And an enormous motive for that’s the new No. 1 on the Stadium of Gentle: Dutch goalkeeper Robin Roefs.
Defence doesn’t lie
Have a look down the previous couple of years of Premier League soccer and, whereas clearly factors is the defining issue, the objectives conceded column tells an identical story too – groups are significantly much less more likely to be relegated if they’re permitting fewer than 70 a season. For context, Burnley are already heading in the right direction to concede 71, Wolves 76, West Ham 85.
Sunderland have let in solely six throughout their eight video games, and whereas that price might not maintain throughout the complete marketing campaign, there’s a minimum of scope to really feel very optimistic about their possibilities of preserving the tallies towards them down.
Within the xG conceded desk, they sit a powerful seventh with 9.7. And as for under conceding six up to now, that’s the place Roefs is available in.
Roefs on hearth
Alisson Becker began the season in nice kind, however is injured once more. David Raya has established himself as top-of-the-line two or three in England over the past couple of years and is once more in good kind. And one other new addition, Gigi Donnarumma at Man Metropolis, comes with the pedigree and status of a a number of trophy winner at membership and nation stage.
There’s an argument to recommend Roefs has been higher than all of them, comparatively talking, within the early stretch of the season.
For starters, he’s only one clear sheet (4) behind Raya and Nick Pope (5), who lead that specific standing. And if that’s a team-wide effort, then Roefs’ contribution to it’s evident in making 3.4 saves per 90 – third-highest within the league. That stated, saves per recreation by itself is a bit like move completion percentages for a centre-back: with out further context it won’t imply an terrible lot.
So, Roefs also can current two further items of knowledge to again up his declare. First, his save proportion – at 82% this season within the league, solely Raya can higher him. However in stopping 3.0 objectives up to now, no person can get close to him. Just one different keeper (Dean Henderson, 2.7) is above 2.0 objectives prevented, with Raya down on 0.3.
The Dutch stopper is halting greater than 4 out of 5 efforts thrown at him and they’re good high quality scoring probabilities. Add in that he’s saved a penalty and ranks increased than 99% of different high European league goalkeepers for top claims up to now 12 months, and it’s clear the 22-year-old is an actual expertise with the approach and mentality to thrive within the Premier League.
A watch on the World Cup?
As famous, there’s an extended strategy to go in terms of staying up, even with an in-form goalkeeper – they haven’t but performed any of the highest 5, for starters. However there’s a last a part of the equation value keeping track of as an enormous motivating issue in terms of subsequent summer season for Roefs – the World Cup.
He’s uncapped proper now, however has made the previous couple of nationwide crew senior squads and it absolutely gained’t be lengthy earlier than he will get a possibility below Ronald Koeman if his kind continues this manner. Roefs is an U21, however his rise has been swift – that is successfully solely his second season as a senior starter, having damaged by at Dutch membership NEC with a handful of appearances in 23/24. Final time period he grew to become a starter, earlier than Sunderland swooped for a deal which could possibly be value a complete of about £11.5m.
That appears an absolute steal up to now.
His competitors for a shirt with the Oranje makes for simple comparability: Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen is barely half a 12 months older at 23, however has over 100 senior video games behind him and 24 caps. Whereas numbers in fact don’t inform the entire story, they do present the south coast man is a way behind his youthful rival in kind up to now: a 59% save proportion, 1.1 extra objectives conceded than anticipated.
Mark Flekken, now at Bayer Leverkusen, presents the older choice, but when the Dutch seal qualification to World Cup 2026 of their subsequent match in November, a primary likelihood for Roefs within the lifeless rubber towards Lithuania is perhaps a touch at future plans.
That’s all for a lot additional sooner or later; throughout the subsequent six weeks, Roefs and Sunderland will face the likes of João Pedro, Viktor Gyökeres, Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland. By Christmas we’ll have a clearer image of his stage – and that of his membership.
(Cowl picture from IMAGO)
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