Ravens vs. Steelers prediction, odds, pick for Week 18 AFC North rubber match

The AFC North crown and a spot in the NFL playoffs are on the line as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in the final game of the NFL regular season. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Ravens-Steelers prediction and pick.

The Ravens come into the game at 8-8 on the year. They struggled to start the season, opening up just 1-5 with the only win coming over the Cleveland Browns. They would then win five in a row before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Steelers. The Ravens avenge their loss to the Bengals with a 24-0 victory, but then fell to the New England Patriots. Last time out, the Ravens kept their season alive. Facing the Green Bay Packers, they took a 41-24 victory.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are 9-7 on the season. They opened up the season strong, going 4-1 with the only loss being to the Seattle Seahawks. They would then lose three of their next four, but did defeat the Indianapolis Colts. After a win over the Bengals, they lost their next two games. The Steelers then defeated the Ravens as part of a three-game win streak. Last time out, the Steelers had a chance to clinch the AFC North, but they fell to the Cleveland Browns 13-6.

It was a tight game the first time these two teams faced. Pittsburgh held a 17-9 lead going into the halftime break. They extended the lead to 27-16 on a Jaylen Warren touchdown in the third quarter, but the Ravens began the comeback. They made it a five-point game, but turned it over on downs on fourth and five from the Pittsburgh eight-yard line. After forcing a punt, the Ravens began to drive again, but ran out of time, losing 27-22

NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings. 

Ravens vs. Steelers Odds

Ravens: -3.5 (-105)

Steelers: +3.5 (-115)

Over: 40.5 (-112)

Under: 40.5 (-108)

Ravens vs. Steelers Key Injuries

Ravens- QB Lamar Jackson (Back- Questionable), DT Taven Bryan (Knee- Out), RB Justice Hill (Neck- Out), LB Adisa Isaac (Elbow- Doubtful)

Steelers-  LB TJ Watt (Lung- Questionable), TE Darnell Washington (Arm- Out), G Isaac Seumalo (Triceps- Questionable), CB James Pierre (Calf- Questionable), CB Brandin Echols (Groin- Questionable), LB Malik Harrison (Bone Bruise- Questionable), DK Metcalf (Suspended- Out)

Ravens vs. Steelers Betting Trends

– The Ravens are 6-10 against the spread and 4-3 ATS on the road this season.

– The Steelers are 8-8 against the spread, while also going 4-3 against the spread at home this year.

– The Ravens are 1-2 against the spread when the underdog this year. They have won outright the only time they covered as an underdog.

– As a favorite, the Steelers are 4-4 against the spread.

– The over has hit in ten Ravens games this year, and in three of the last four games.

– The under has hit in just seven games for the Steelers this year. The over is 1-1-1 in the last three games.

Keys to Ravens vs. Steelers Matchup

The key to the Ravens in this game is going to be Derrick Henry. The Ravens have been solid on offense this year, sitting 11th in points per game and 16th in yards per game. They are just 28th in the pass, though. Lamar Jackson has been solid, throwing for 2,311 yards and 18 touchdowns this year. The offense has been great in the run. They are the best run offense in the NFL. This is all led by Henry. He is third in the NFL with 1,469 yards while sitting second in the NFL with 16 touchdowns. Last time out, he ran for 216 yards and four touchdowns. He has run for over 100 yards in each of the last three games. Last time Henry faced the Steelers, he ran 25 times for 94 yards, but did not score.

The Steelers’ defense has been solid this year. They are 15th in the NFL in opponent points per game and 28th in opponent yards per game. The team is 30th against the pass, but 12th against the run. If the Steelers are going to slow down Henry, Patrick Queen is going to need to have a massive game, especially if T.J. Watt is out in this game. He has 118 tackles with eight tackles for a loss so far this year.

The key for the Steelers is going to be Aaron Rodgers. The team is 15th in points per game while sitting 26th in yards per game. The Steelers are 26th in the run and 22nd in the pass. Rodgers has been solid for the team. He has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 3,028 yards and 23 touchdowns. Rodgers has also been intercepted seven times. He struggled last time out, throwing for just 168 yards and going without a touchdown. He was good against the Ravens the first time they played. The former Packer passed for 284 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers also ran in a touchdown on the ground, the only one of the year.

The Ravens have been middle-of-the-pack on defense this year. They are 23rd in opponent points per game and 25th in opponent yards per game. The defense is 11th in the run game and 29th against the pass. Marlon Humphery is going to need to have a big game. He leads the team with four interceptions this year, while he also has 12 pass breakups.

Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction and Pick

This will be a playoff game atmosphere for the Ravens and Steelers. The Steelers had a chance to make this game not important if they had been able to defeat the Browns last week. The offense was not good, though. Pittsburgh struggled on offense last week. They were just 3-15 on third down, and had just 291yards of offense. It was clear that Rodgers was missing DK Metcalf, and the receiver will not be back for this game either. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is heating up at the right time. He was a monster against the Packers last week, and even without Micah Parsons, the Packers are strong on defense. If the Steelers cannot slow down Henry, it is going to be a long game.

Regardless, with the playoff atmosphere and everything on the line, this is going to be a tight game. Getting over a field goal with the home team is huge, and is the right side in this one. Further, this could be a very low-scoring slugfest. The weather in Pittsburgh is currently looking like a very cold night, but without much wind or precipitation. The weather will not be a factor, but hard-nose defense will, as the under hits as well.

Final Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction and Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-115) and Under 40.5 (-108) 

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