By Karl Matchett
In principle that’s magic development for Aston Villa below Unai Emery, however as ever, context is king: Villa have fallen away from final 12 months’s consistency, received solely three of their final 12 in all competitions and have received solely half of their residence league video games this time period. And but, improbably, that’s much better than the champions are faring proper now.
In the identical stretch of a dozen matches, Pep Guardiola’s facet have received solely twice. But a dozen video games exactly reaches again to the beginning of their current malaise: a 1-0 residence win over backside membership Southampton was 12 video games in the past, and since then it’s a single win in 11. Residence or away, home or Europe, Guardiola goes by a spell he by no means has earlier than as a coach, and positively this group of gamers haven’t both.
Heading into the match there’s yet another potential merchandise of context to notice: nearly a full week of coaching floor time for Man Metropolis since their final defeat, that late one to native rivals Man United, which is a primary full week of tactical and organisational work Guardiola has been in a position to do since mid-August. The draw back of that’s, Villa have additionally had a full week to arrange.
Kind
Narrowing the lens to more moderen matches, Villa broke their winless streak by claiming three victories on the bounce in opposition to Brentford, Southampton and Leipzig. None are excellent outcomes however ought to actually have boosted confidence, earlier than Nottingham Forest ruined the rebuild with two late targets every week in the past. For Metropolis, the identical crew proved a false daybreak: they lastly picked up a primary win in eight in opposition to Forest and most anticipated them to easily decide up once more; as a substitute they drew at Palace, misplaced at Juventus and had been completely shocked by United final week. Confidence can have been at all-time low proper then – how a lot can it change in six days?
Group information
Jacob Ramsey is the one particular absentee for the hosts, however Leon Bailey can be a doubt. Tyrone Mings might miss the sport too however wouldn’t begin anyway. For Man Metropolis, it’s simply the identical long-term absentees as has been the case of late: Rodri, Oscar Bobb, Manuel Akanji and now Nathan Aké. John Stones is again although and possibly begins.
Key participant?
This match hosts the gamers with one of the best targets per 90 fee (Jhon Durán) and one of the best xG (Erling Haaland) however absolutely victory comes from which defence stands agency for as soon as, after so many errors. No crew has missed extra huge possibilities (37) than Villa within the league this time period, with Ollie Watkins (15) the prime offender. We’ll make Joško Gvardiol the one to look at as he has most interceptions and tackles per 90 of any Metropolis defender, but in addition has impression going ahead.
Prediction
An error-fest of two groups determined for wins however riddled with anxiousness, and ultimately, no person wins: Villa 2-2 Man Metropolis!
(Cowl picture from IMAGO)
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