Patriots fatal flaw that will derail Super Bowl hopes in AFC playoffs

Somehow, the New England Patriots have returned. After years of missing the postseason and a small rebuild, New England is back on top of the AFC East. They’ve done so in style, finishing with a 14-3 record and only losing a tiebreaker to the Denver Broncos for the first seed in the conference. Now, the Patriots are aiming for their first Super Bowl since the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era.

On the surface, the Patriots seem to be a worthy favorite to win the Lombardi. Even with the concerns about the schedule they’ve faced, New England has taken care of their “easy” opponents with ease. However, there is one flaw that the Patriots have that could impact their Super Bowl hopes. Let’s look at what the biggest issue will be for the Patriots in the playoffs.

Patriots’ defense has glaring flaws

The Patriots have been one of the best defenses in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 295.2 yards per game (eighth in the league) and 18.8 points per game (fourth in the league) in the regular season. On paper, this defense seems to be well-equipped to take on any offense in the postseason.

However, there’s been a worrying trend over the second half of the season. The Patriots’ run defense has taken a nosedive over the last two months or so. Starting from Week 12, New England allowed three yards per carry before contact and a 45.2% success rate on when defending run plays. Those numbers are at the bottom of the NFL. From Week 10 onwards, the Patriots have allowed 131.3 rushing yards per game, more than the 75.7 yards per contest they allowed before Week 10.

This is a problem for the Patriots, especially with the teams that they’re likely to face in the postseason. In the Wild Card round, the Pats will face the Los Angeles Chargers, a team that is ranked 7th in rushing yards per game and ran the ball relatively often. They also have rookie running back Omarion Hampton back on the team. Should they advance to the next round, they could face a resurgent Travis Etienne (1,107 yards, seven touchdowns) or the elite James Cook (1,621 yards, 12 touchdowns).

There’s also another aspect of the defense that’s slightly tied to their run defense. While the Patriots are generally a good team at keeping opposing teams out of the endzone, there’s one area in particular that the team struggles to defend. The red zone has been New England’s bane all season long. They have the third-worst red zone touchdown percentage, with opposing teams scoring a touchdown on 67.5% of their red zone trips.

Now granted, there are some good explanations for both points. The Patriots’ run defense’s regression in the second half can be explained by the absence of defensive tackle Milton Williams. Williams suffered his injury in Week 11 and didn’t play until Week 17, which would explain the sudden drop in performance by the defense on that end. The Patriots also didn’t have linebacker Robert Spillane for the last few weeks. Both defenders are set to play in the postseason, giving some much-needed relief on that end.

The Patriots’ red-zone defense isn’t good, yes, but their absurdly high red zone TD allowed percentage is due in part to the number of red zone trips their opponents have. The Patriots have let opponents into the red zone 40 times this season, by far the least out of all teams. The way they crumble in the red zone is concerning, but the fact that they aren’t challenged there often should count for something.

Despite these caveats, these are still exploitable flaws that opposing teams could take advantage of. The Patriots need to prepare and avoid falling victim to their own issues.

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