Panthers vs. Buccaneers prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 18

Against all odds, the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off in the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season with the entire division on the line. While most NFL matchups in Week 18 carry no meaning, all eyes will be on Raymond James Stadium on Saturday afternoon to see who will be the final team in the NFC bracket.

The two teams last met just two weeks ago, when the Panthers took a 23-20 victory at home in Week 16. The game was mostly a defensive struggle that ended appropriately, with Carolina safety Lathan Ramson picking off Baker Mayfield with under a minute remaining to seal the victory.

The game was part of the Buccaneers’ brutal 1-7 skid since their Week 9 bye. Tampa Bay entered its break in firm control of the NFC South with a 6-2 record, but has only beaten the injury-plagued Arizona Cardinals since.

The Panthers have not been much better, alternating wins and losses in their last 10. Carolina is coming off a 27-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, but it has still done just enough to remain in first place of the division to keep its playoff hopes alive.

Should the Panthers get the job done, it will end a seven-year playoff drought. Conversely, the Buccaneers’ five-year postseason streak is also on the line.

NFL Week 18 odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers odds

Carolina Panthers: +2.5 (-102)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -2.5 (-118)

Over: 43.5 (-115)

Under: 43.5 (-105)

Panthers vs. Buccaneers key injuries

Panthers

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, OUT (broken fibula)

LB Trevin Wallace, OUT (shoulder surgery)

RB Rico Dowdle, Questionable (back — DNP Tuesday)

OG Robert Hunt, Questionable (biceps — FP Tuesday)

DT Tershawn Wharton, Questionable (hamstring — returned to practice Tuesday)

Buccaneers

QB Baker Mayfield, Questionable (shoulder, knee — LP Wednesday)

OT Tristan Wirfs, Questionable (toe — DNP Wednesday)

OT Luke Goedeke, Questionable (ankle — LP Wednesday)

DT Calijah Kancey, Questionable (pectoral — LP Wednesday)

CB Jamel Dean, Questionable (shoulder — DNP Wednesday)

CB Benjamin Morrison, Questionable (hamstring — DNP Wednesday)

Panthers vs. Buccaneers betting trends

• The Buccaneers will play at home for the first time since Dec. 11; Panthers hit the road for the first time since Dec. 14
• Buccaneers are 5-11 against the spread
• Buccaneers are a league-worst 0-8 against the spread since Week 10
• Buccaneers are 1-6 against the spread at home
• Buccaneers are 1-5 against the spread as home favorite
• Buccaneers are 8-8 to the over
• Panthers are 9-7 against the spread
• Panthers are 4-4 against the spread on the road
• Panthers are 4-3 against the spread as road underdog
• Panthers are 7-9 to the over

Panthers vs. Buccaneers matchup

The injury report will be key to this one, as several key players from both sides could be returning. Baker Mayfield, who has been dealing with a shoulder injury for a few weeks, is clearly the biggest name on the list, but it would be a huge surprise if he sat out.

For the Panthers, they could get standout guard Robert Hunt back in the lineup for the first time since Week 2. Hunt returned to practice in Week 17 and said he is feeling better ahead of the regular season finale. His return would be huge for both Bryce Young and Rico Dowdle, the latter of whom began the week with a DNP due to back pain.

The Buccaneers are hoping for a pair of key linemen to return, with Tristan Wirfs and Calijah Kancey beginning the week as questionable. Wirfs is looking to end a one-game absence, while Kancey has been on injured reserve since he suffered a torn pectoral in Week 2.

Momentum is clearly favoring the Panthers at this point, but the Buccaneers still opened as the favorite. That could be due to Carolina only beating Tampa Bay twice in the last six years, and it has not claimed a victory in Raymond James Stadium since 2019.

Keep an eye on the updated report on Friday, as the line could shift significantly to either side depending on who plays.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers prediction and pick

It might be jarring to see the reeling Buccaneers open as the favorite, but a quick deep dive can justify the line. Since its last win over the Cardinals in Week 13, Tampa Bay has not had luck on its side, losing its last four games by a combined 11 points.

That would seemingly play into the Panthers’ favor. Of Bryce Young’s 14 wins as a starter, 12 have come down to game-winning drives.

However, Carolina’s offense has run the ball at a top-10 rate, relying more on Rico Dowdle than Young. Getting Hunt back would be huge, but, for all their shortcomings, the Buccaneers’ run defense has remained stout. Tampa Bay only allows 104.1 rushing yards per game, seventh-fewest in the league.

The Buccaneers were hoping that Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan’s return would rejuvenate their offense, and they seemed to turn a corner in Week 17. Despite the loss to the Miami Dolphins, Mayfield threw for 346 passing yards, his most since Week 5. He seemed to be back to the version of himself that had fans convinced he was the MVP frontrunner early in the year.

Mayfield was not clicking with Evans and McMillan the last time these teams played, as evidenced by the miscommunication on their final offensive play. Three games later, they seem to have found a groove.

It might feel wrong to trust the Buccaneers, but they are the better team that seems to be on the cusp of turning the corner. Back Tampa Bay to win a nail-biter and sneak into the playoffs.

Panthers-Buccaneers Prediction & Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-118), Under 43.5 (-105)

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