Oregon vs. Indiana prediction, odds, pick for CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl

It is a Big Ten regular-season rematch as Oregon faces Indiana in the College Football Playoff semifinal. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Oregon-Texas Tech CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl prediction and pick.

Oregon has moved to 13-1 so far this campaign, after a second CFP win. They opened up 5-0, with a double-overtime win over Penn State. They would then lose to Indiana 30-20. Since then, Oregon has displayed a level of domination, ending the season with six straight regular-season wins, including wins over Iowa and USC. While it did not earn them a spot in the Big Ten Championship, it got them the five seed in the CFP. The Ducks opened up with a 51-34 victory over James Madison, and then Oregon completely dominated Texas Tech at the Orange Bowl. The Ducks held the Red Raiders to just 215 yards of total offense, while forcing four turnovers on the way to a 23-0 victory.

Meanwhile, Indiana remains the only undefeated team left in the nation and the only team that had a bye in the CFP in the past two seasons to win in the quarterfinals. They are 14-0 on the season, with a 12-0 regular season record. They then took care of business against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, slowing down the Ohio State offense and winning the game 13-10. This would lead to Indiana getting the top seed and taking on Alabama in the CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl. Indiana put up 17 points in the second quarter to lead 17-0 at the halftime break. They would extend the lead to 24-0 before Alabama finally scored via a field goal. Still, they closed the door in the fourth quarter, as Indiana defeated Alabama 38-3.

While current Big Ten foes, Oregon and Indiana, have only played four times against each other. They have split the all-time series, with Oregon winning in 1963 and 1964, but Indiana winning in 2004 and this year.

It was a tight first game of the season between the two. They were tied at ten in the second quarter when Oregon missed a field goal. Indiana would drive the field and close the half with a field goal to lead 13-10. Oregon would tie the game in the third, but Indiana answered that with a touchdown. In the fourth quarter, Fernando Mendoza made one of his few mistakes of the year, as an interception was returned for a touchdown to tie the game. The next drive, Mendoza threw a touchdown pass to Elijah Surrat to give Indiana the lead. The defense would intercept Dante Moore twice, and the offense added a field goal to close out the game with a 30-20 victory.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Oregon vs. Indiana Odds

Oregon: +3.5 (-108)

Indiana: -3.5 (-112)

Over: 46.5 (-115)

Under: 46.5 (-105)

Oregon vs. Indiana Key Injuries

Oregon- WR Evan Stuart (Questionable), OL Bryce Boulton (Out), WR Dillon Gresham (Out), RB Da’Juan Riggs (Questionable), OT Gernorris Wilson (Doubtful), S Trey McNutt (Questionable)

Indiana- RB Lee Beeber Jr. (Out), WR Omar Cooper Jr. (Questionable), K Brendan Franke (Questionable), LB Amari Kamara (Questionable), RG Bray Lynch (Probable), DE Mikail Kamara (Probable)

Oregon vs. Indiana Betting Trends

– Oregon is 9-5 against the spread this year, but 1-0 at a neutral site this season.

– Indiana is also 9-5 against the spread this year. They are 2-0 ATS at neutral site games this season.

– When an underdog, Oregon,  has covered both times, winning both games outright

– When the favorite, Indiana, is 7-5 against the spread.

– The under has been the right side for Oregon  games in seven of 114 matchups, including in two of the last three

– The over has hit just seven times in the 14 games for Indiana this year, but just once in the last five games.

– In the first game between the two, Indiana covered, while the under of 51 points cashed by a single point.

Keys to Oregon vs. Indiana Matchup

Oregon took a step up in defensive competition from JMU to Texas Tech, and took another step against Indiana. Still, the game plan should be very similar to the last two games. Oregon has been a top offense this year, sitting 12th in the nation in points per game and ninth in yards per game. They are 16th in the run while sitting 39th in the pass.

The running game has been the better aspect of the offense, but Indiana has been nearly perfect against the run. This means the game will be placed on Dante Moore, who has led the Oregon offense. He has passed for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns. He has just eight interceptions this year as well. The Ducks quarterback has also done a great job of spreading the ball around. He has six receivers with over 25 receptions and over 300 yards. Moore showed vulnerability against Texas Tech, passing for just 234 yards without a touchdown and with an interception. He has thrown three interceptions in the playoffs so far.

Moore will have another tough test in this one, as the Indiana defense has one of the best in the nation. They are second in the nation in opponent points per game and third in opponent yards per game. They are third against the run and 21st against the pass. Oregon does have a balanced offense, which is going to put the pressure on Rolijah Hardy. Hardy leads the team in tackles, while having eight sacks and four pass breakups. He also has 14 tackles for a loss, including 2.5 in the last two games.

Indiana showed last week that when they get the ground game going, they are difficult to stop. The Hooisers are fourth in points per game while sitting 11th in yards per game. They are also 11th in the run and 56th in the pass. Fernando Mendoza has been great, leading to his Heiman victory, but his 36 passing touchdowns and 3,172 yards are not the key; it is the running game. Roman Hemby has been fantastic with 1,007 yards and seven touchdowns. Also, Kaelon Black has run for 898 yards and eight scores. Mendoza also has been solid on the ground, with 256 yards and six scores. The trio ran for 204 yards against Alabama.

Oregon has been great on defense this year, as seen last week. They are sixth in the nation in opponent points per game and fourth in opponent yards per game. They have been amazing against the pass, sitting second, but they are 22nd against the run. Bryce Boettcher will be the main player against the run. He leads the team with 125 tackles while having 4.5 tackles for a loss on the campaign.

Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Mendoza and Moore could be the top two picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, and they get to show off head-to-head on this big stage. Mendoza has been great as of late, accounting for 11 touchdowns with just one interception in his last four games. Moore has nine touchdowns with four interceptions in his last four games. Meanwhile, the Oregon defense showed some weakness against James Madison, giving up 34 points, even though they shut out Texas Tech. Indiana has allowed 23 points in the last four games combined. While the Ducks got the impressive number with the shutout, holding Alabama to just three points, and Ohio State to just ten points, it is just as impressive by the Hooisers. They get the win and put up enough points for the over to hit.

Final Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick:  Indiana -3.5 (-112) and Over 46.5 (-115) 

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