Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction, odds, pick for CFP quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl

Ole Miss looks to avenge their only loss of the year as it faces off with Georgia at the Sugar Bowl in the College Football Playoff. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Ole Miss-Georgia CFP quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl prediction and pick.

Ole Miss comes into the game at 12-1 on the campaign. They opened up the season 6-0, with wins over Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU, plus a three-point victory against Washington State. The Rebels would lose their only game of the season on the road aganst Georgia, losing 43-35 on the road to the Bulldogs. They have since won six straight games, including a win over Oklahoma and their rival, Mississippi State. Last time out, the Rebels rematched against Tulane in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss dominated the game, on the way to a 41-10 victory over Tulane.

Meanwhile, Georgia is 12-1 on the year as well. They opened up 3-0 on the season, including a win over Tennessee in overtime. They would then fall at home to Alabama 24-21. Since then, it has been complete domination for the Bulldogs. They have won nine straight games, with just three games being within a score. One was the neutral site rivalry game against Florida, and the other was another neutral site rivalry game against Georgia Tech. The final one was the first meeting with Ole Miss. The team would then face off with Alabama in the SEC Championship. Georgia controlled the game, winning 28-7.

In the first meeting between the tw teams, Ole Miss had the lead going into the halftime break, leading 21-20. Ole Miss scored touchdowns on each of their first five possessions of the game, but was unable to slow down Georgia. Ole Miss held a nine-point lead going into the fourth quarter, but they fell apart in the fourth, failing to score and giving up 17 points, losing 43-35.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Odds

Ole Miss: +6.5 (-112)

Georgia: -6.5 (-108)

Over: 55.5 (-112)

Under: 55.5 (-108)

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Key Injuries

Ole Miss- CB Antoio Kite (Questionable), RB Kewan Lacy (Questionable), DB Dante Core (Questionable)

Georgia- WR Colbie Young (Questionable), TE Ethan Barbour (Questionable), DE Gabe Harris (Doubtful), S Kyron Jones (Doubtful), S Joenel Aguero (Questionable)

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Betting Trends

– Ole Miss is 8-5 against the spread this year, and 2-2 on the road, but has not played at a neutral site.

– Georgia is 6-7 against the spread this year, and 1-2 at neutral site games this season.

– When an underdog, Ole Miss is 1-1 against the spread, failing to cover by one point on the road against Georgia, and winning outright over Oklahoma.

– When the favorite, Georgia, is 6-7 against the spread, and is 2-2 in the last four games as a favorite.

– The under has been the right side for Ole Miss games in seven of 13 matchups. This inlcudes four of the last five games.

– The over has hit in just four of 13 games for Georgia, but has not hit in the last four games.  

Keys to Ole Miss vs. Georgia Matchup

The Georgia defense has been one of the best this year, but the pass defense has not been at the same level as the run defense. That makes the key for Ole Miss quarterback Trindiad Chambliss. The Rebels’ offense has been stellar this year, sitting tenth in points per game while sitting second in yards per game. They are 27th in the run, but fourth in the pass. Chambliss was not the original starter this season, but got the job with the help of an injury to Austin Simmons. He passed for 3,298 yards and 19 touchdowns this year while also finding the endzone on the ground eight times.

His streak of three straight 300-yard passing games was broken last time out, but he still completed 23 of 29 passes for 292 yards and one passing touhdown. He also found the endzone on the ground twice. Last time against Georgia, he passed for 263 yards and a score, but did not get help from Kewan Lacy. Lacy also needs to be solid in the game. He ran for just 31 yards in the game against Georgia, his worst game of the year. He has also run for 1,366 yards and 21 scores this year.

Meanwhile, the Georgia defense has been great this year. They are tenth in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 11th in opponent yards per game. They are also fourth against the run and 47th against the pass. CJ Allen has been great for Georgia this year. He was a first-team All-SEC player, leading the team with 85 tackles. Further, he has 3.5 sacks, with four pass breakups, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery.

The key for Georgia is going to be the running game. The Georgia offense was solid this year, sitting 19th in the nation in points per game and 35th in yards per game. They are just 74th in the pass, even though Gunner Stockton was great this year. He passed for 2,691 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, plus he ran for 442 yards on the ground, scoring eight times. Still, the run offense has been great this year, sitting 31st in the nation. Nate Fraizer has run for 861 yards and six scores, while Chanucey Bowens has run for 516 yards and six scores. Neither scored in the first game, but Stockton did after running for 59 yards in the game.

Still, the Ole Miss defense has been solid this year. They are 27th in opponent points per game and 47th in opponent yards per game. They have been solid against the run, sitting 42nd, while also sitting 42nd in FBS against the pass. The Rebels need TJ Dottery to step up in the game. He led the team with 3 tackles, while having half a sack, two pass breakups, and two forced fumbles

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Kirby Smart is dominant when facing teams for a second time in a season. This includes in SEC Championships and bowl games, as he has gone 4-0 when facing a team for the second time. This includes knocking off Alabama in the SEC Championship when the Bulldogs won. There is a small difference in this game, and that is Pete Golding is now the head coach for the Rebels. Ole Miss has been solid on both sides of the ball this year. They also controlled the game for three quarters against Georgia last time the two faced. Still, Georgia has one area where it is much better. Ole Miss is 63rd in red zone scoring and 100th on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, Georgia is 14th in red zone scoring, while sitting tenth on defense. That will be the difference in this one.

Final Ole Miss vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick:  Georgia -6.5 (-108) and Under 55.5 (-108) 

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