NFL Wild Card Saturday Prime Betting Picks, Predictions January 11, 2025 | Deadspin.com

A whole bunch of markets may qualify as one in all our greatest bets for as we speak. If you’re into faculty basketball, males’s or ladies’s, you’ll not have any hassle discovering a sport. The identical may be stated for NHL and NBA followers. There’s even a UFC Battle Night time in Vegas.

However we are going to give attention to the NFL postseason because the wild card spherical will get underway. The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Houston Texans, and the Pittsburgh Steelers will battle the Baltimore Ravens.

Chargers vs. Texans

UNDER 42.5 Factors at -110 (through Caesars)

The Chargers have the No. 1 scoring protection within the NFL, holding groups to 17.7 factors per sport this season. Houston has struggled on offense for a lot of the yr and can doubtless battle towards one of the best protection they’ve confronted all season. It will be a shock in the event that they scored 20 factors.

As for the Chargers offense, they’re coming off three video games with 34+ factors, however within the three previous to these, they scored 17 factors per sport. Within the three video games with 34+ factors, the passing sport led the way in which, however that’s going to be arduous to do that week towards arguably one of the best move rush within the NFL.

The Chargers will doubtless lean into their run sport, realizing that will probably be arduous to get the passing sport on observe. That can, in fact, hold them from operating up the rating and the whole UNDER 42.5 factors.

Kaimi Fairbairn, OVER 7.5 Factors at +105

Houston has one of many worst pink zone offenses within the NFL this season, scoring touchdowns on 49.1% of pink zone possessions. It’s uncertain that quantity is any higher towards the No. 1 pink zone protection of the Chargers.

Whereas he scored below seven factors within the final three video games, he scored 8+ in 9 of the earlier ten. The Chargers protection has held kickers to six.65 factors per sport however allowed 8+ in 4 of their final 5. This sport will make it 5 of their final six.

Steelers vs. Ravens

Derrick Henry, OVER 20.5 Speeding Makes an attempt at -114 (through FanDuel)

23+ Speeding Makes an attempt at +135 (through Caesars)

OVER 98.5 Speeding Yards at -115 (through DraftKings)

110+/130+ Speeding Yards at +140/+290 (through bet365)

The Ravens’ success revolves round one factor—the run sport. Previously, that meant Lamar Jackson, however this season, it means getting Derrick Henry on observe. When he has had 100+ dashing yards (9 instances this season, together with the final three), Baltimore is 9-0.

The passing sport opens up as soon as groups start to regulate in hopes of stopping/slowing down the run sport, making it crucial that the run sport will get established.

In his 9 100+ yard video games, Henry carried the ball 23+ instances in all however one. In opposition to the Steelers, he had 13 carries (65 yards) in a single and 24 (162 yards) within the different. It will be a shock if Henry didn’t go OVER his 20.5 whole.

When you think about that he ran for 132+ yards within the six video games the place he had 24+ carries, the objective should be 24-30 carries.

As for his yardage whole, 98.5 is a giant quantity, however the Ravens know the way essential establishing the run will likely be on this sport. They’ll’t rely on Lamar Jackson to do it. The Steelers have proven they will comprise him when he runs, and Baltimore needs to take strain off Jackson, not add to it.

In case you desire to guess with warning in thoughts, take OVER 98.5 dashing yards for Henry. However for those who’re okay with a little bit of danger, go together with 110+ to get plus-money odds for this prop. In case you imagine he’ll get 23-25 carries, give some severe thought to 130+ yards at +290.