NFL Playoffs’ 8 teams still standing, ranked by 2026 Super Bowl chances

The NFL Playoffs Wild Card round is in the rear view mirror and we move on with the eight remaining teams in the Divisional Playoff Round. This is where the rubber meets the road, with the No. 1 seeds now entering the fray in the AFC and NFC, making the playoffs a whole lot more interesting.

As we move forward here are our rankings of every team left in the playoffs, re-seeded after seeing their performances in the opening round.

Regarding methodology, seven staff members submitted their sets of rankings, and these rankings are an average of the seven submissions.

The blurbs? Well, they’re ours, so if you disagree with something in the blurbs you know who to yell at.

8. San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are headed back to the Divisional Round.

The 49ers went into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions, beating the Philadelphia Eagles by a final score of 23-19. In many ways, the win was emblematic of everything the 49ers have endured this year. They lost star tight end George Kittle to an Achilles’ tear early in the game, but overcame that injury to bounce the defending champions out of the playoffs.

It is another impressive win in a season of overcoming adversity, but things get much harder from here. The 49ers, by virtue of the win, now get to head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks, a team they lost to just two weeks ago when the No. 1 seed in the NFC was at stake.

Oddsmakers have already installed the Seahawks as touchdown favorites, and that Week 18 meeting is a big reason why. San Francisco struggled to get anything going offensively as they lost 13-3, those three points matching his debut game with the 49ers back in 2017 as the lowest-scoring efforts from his offense during Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers tenure.

That rematch is a big reason why, despite what they have overcome, it is hard to see San Francisco making a deep run.

But if they do, it would be yet another hurdle they have overcome.

7. Houston Texans

The Texans defense is absolutely phenomenal, and the compliments end there. This is a team that lives and dies by its defense, which we saw on Monday Night Football against the Steelers. C.J. Stroud couldn’t move the ball through the air, and the Houston running game was abysmal — at least until late in the 4th quarter when the game was decided.

There’s a saving grace to all this, which is that the history of the NFL has shown us that defense is far more important to winning championships than offense — and in these playoffs only the Broncos can really boast an defense that’s as talented in the AFC.

This week the Texans face the Patriots. Drake Maye is considerably better in every regard than this season’s iteration of Aaron Rodgers. He throws deeper, has better connections with his receivers, and a more reliable running game. Houston can’t count on its defense to win this game alone, but if Stroud and the offense can give just a little bit more, well, the Texans could be a team to watch as a potential Super Bowl contender.

6. Chicago Bears

The Cardiac Bears did it again.

On Saturday night it looked as if the Chicago Bears were facing an early exit from the playoffs. Chicago trailed the Green Bay Packers 21-3 at the half, after a first 30 minutes where they struggled to get anything going on offense.

But during the halftime break, head coach Ben Johnson reminded the team of a video he showed them during training camp: A video of New England’s dramatic comeback in Super Bowl LI against the Atlanta Falcons, where they overcame a 28-3 deficit to win the title.

“That was my message to the group,” Johnson said, “just reminding them that this has been done before and rather than saying, ‘Woe is me’ and ‘Oh [shoot], we’re in a hole,’ it’s more, ‘This is a great opportunity for us to turn this around into a game we’ll never forget,’ and that’s what they did.”

Chicago indeed climbed out of that hole, scoring 28 points in the second half to deliver a dramatic 31-27 win over the Packers to move onto the Divisional Round. It was the seventh time this season the Bears won a game they trailed in the final 2:00 of regulation.

The Bears’ resilience has been a staple of their season, given this team a believe that they can overcome any obstacle, and made believers out of everyone in that building, and in the greater Chicago area.

In a wide-open conference, that could be enough for a deep, deep playoff run.

5. New England Patriots

The Patriots didn’t look their best against the Chargers on Sunday night, which is actually a good thing. Drake Maye and the young New England players managed to get out their yips and still win their first playoff game, meaning they should have a better understanding of what it takes in the divisional playoff round.

New England thrives on throwing the deep ball and stretching the field, balancing that on offense with a strong interior running game. Meanwhile their defense is very good in pass coverage, taking away any easy completions and making opposing quarterbacks work overtime. We saw this with Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who struggled to get anything going in Foxboro.

Questions remain over just how good this team really is, but those questions may finally get answered in the Divisional Round. The Texans represent a fascinating challenge, because their defense is so phenomenal — but the offense is absolutely putrid. It will truly be a test of Drake Maye’s mettle, and he’ll have to be the focal point of this team.

4. Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is battered. He is bruised.

He is also headed back to the Divisional Round with the Buffalo Bills.

Allen and the Bills outlasted the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, despite the quarterback making two separate trips to the blue medical tent. He cleared concussion protocol on the first visit, but also had his hand checked out after hitting it on a helmet after making a throw. Allen also twisted his leg awkwardly on a touchdown run.

But in the end, he and the Bills were standing.

What makes the Bills so dangerous is, well, Allen. Their battering ram of a quarterback — as battered as he may be — gives the Bills a chance to win every single time they take the field.

With the AFC as wide open as it is, that could be enough.

3. Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos enjoyed a bye week during Wild Card Weekend, savoring the fruits of securing the No. 1 seed. While the other six teams in the AFC clashed with three spots in the Divisional Round on the line, the Broncos rested at home.

But now it is time for the Broncos to put that No. 1 seed on the line, and join the fray.

There are reasons to believe in Denver, perhaps starting on the defensive side of the football. The Broncos are among the league’s best defenses, particularly when looking at Expected Points Allowed (EPA) against both the run and the pass. Denver also pressured opposing passers on 29.8% of dropbacks this season (second-most in the NFL), records the most sacks in the NFL (68), held opposing passers to an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.7 (fourth-best in the NFL), and limited opposing running games to just 91.1 yards per game, second-best in the league.

If there is a concern, it comes on the offensive side of the football. The Broncos are right around league average in both the running game and the passing game, when viewed through EPA. Yes, there will be questions about how Bo Nix will fare in his second playoff stint, given where he ranked among NFL quarterbacks in several categories this year. Nix ranked 21st in ANY/A among qualified passers, below the league average and 12th among the 14 playoff quarterbacks. Will that be enough in the playoffs?

Maybe with that defense, starting this week against the Buffalo Bills.

2. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams got out of Carolina by the skin of their teeth, but that’s all you need in the playoffs. Los Angeles wasn’t convincing by any stretch of the imagination against a highly questionable Panthers defense that doesn’t have an appreciable pass rush. Still, you’re always going to have a chance to win when you have an MVP caliber QB like Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams.

One thing to watch moving forward will be the Rams’ tight end integration into the offense. This ended up being the biggest difference maker on Saturday as Sean McVay pivoted from utilizing his outside receivers, to working inside with Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson on critical 3rd down situations. As Greg Olsen said on the broadcast: Los Angeles doesn’t have world-beating tight ends, but they are g00d enough to have a major impact when needed.

The Bears make for a fascinating matchup. One area that Los Angeles dominated was their own pass rush, hurrying Bryce Young on a majority of downs and making his life difficult. That will be considerably tougher against Caleb Williams, one of the best escape artists in the NFL when it comes to pressure. The tradeoff is that Williams isn’t as much of a chain mover, and excels throwing deep — which is what the Rams were able to take away from the Panthers on Saturday.

This game could very well be an offensive shootout, which suits Los Angeles just fine.

1. Seattle Seahawks

Similar to the Denver Broncos, an analysis of the Seattle Seahawks starts on the defensive side of the football.

It is perhaps no surprise that Mike Macdonald has built a stifling defense, given his coaching background. Looking at EPA against the run, the Seahawks are far and away the best run defense in the league. But what they do against the pass is almost as good.

And what truly stands out is the fact that Seattle is not heavy on blitzing. The Seahawks blitzed on just 19.3% of snaps this year, the seventh-lowest blitz rate. Yet despite that relatively low blitz percentage, Seattle generated pressure on 26.1% of dropbacks, the sixth-highest pressure percentage in the NFL this season.

It is that old saw about the NFL in action: “If you can get pressure with four … ”

Seattle lives that.

But similar to the Broncos, the questions lie on the offensive side of the ball. How much are you trusting Sam Darnold? What happens if the “Bad Darnold Game” arrives?

The hope for Seahawks fans is two-fold. First, that defense is good enough to overcome the Bad Darnold Game and second, maybe Darnold got that out off his system against the Los Angeles Rams earlier this season.

If those hopes hold, watch out. But it certainly helps that Seattle begins their quest against a team they defeated just two weeks ago.