NFL playoff picture: What does Patriots-Dolphins mean for AFC standings in Week 18

Game update (Sunday): With Jacksonville’s win over the Titans, the Jaguars are still alive in the chase for the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. That means New England needs a win over Miami to at least secure the No. 2 spot, otherwise the Patriots would drop to No. 3.

The New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday to close out their 2025 NFL regular season schedule.

While the Patriots will be moving on to the NFL Playoffs, there is a chance New England will secure the No. 1 seed this weekend with a win over the Dolphins, and a little bit of help from around the league.

Here is how the Patriots can secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC this weekend.

New England Patriots playoff picture

As things stand, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a 13-3 record, the same record as the Denver Broncos.

However, the Broncos have a tiebreaker advantage over New England, thanks to a better record against common opponents. Denver won all of their games against the common opponents, while New England’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders back in Week 1 means the Broncos have the edge if they finish tied with the Patriots.

Still, if the Broncos stumble against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, the door is open for Mike Vrable and company. New England will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Miami Dolphins, coupled with a Broncos loss or tie against the Chargers.

New England can also be the No. 1 seed with a tie against the Dolphins, provided the Broncos lose to the Chargers.

It is worth noting that Jim Harbaugh has already announced that the Chargers will rest Justin Herbert, and it is believed Los Angeles will rest more starters on Sunday. Oddsmakers have already listed the Broncos as 12.5-point favorites.

On the other side of things, there is some peril for the Patriots here in Week 18. New England could fall to the No. 3 seed with a loss to Miami. If the Patriots lose to the Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Titans, New England will drop to No. 3.

Tiebreaker implications

With the Dolphins already eliminated from the playoffs, there are no tiebreaker implications in this game for the two teams. The outcome will only impact New England’s position in the playoffs as noted above.