NFL playoff picture: How the Patriots can clinch a playoff berth in Week 16

The New England Patriots missed a golden opportunity to clinch the AFC East in Week 15. After jumping out to a 21-0 lead early in the first half — and taking a 24-7 lead to the locker room at halftime — the Patriots squandered those leads to lose to the Buffalo Bills.

That means the Patriots cannot clinch a the division title this weekend, as at 11-3 they are just one game ahead of Buffalo in the standings. But the Patriots can at least clinch a playoff spot this weekend.

Here are how Mike Vrabel and company can punch their ticket.

New England Patriots playoff berth clinching scenarios

The Patriots at least control their own destiny when it comes to clinching a playoff berth.

With a win or a tie against Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, the Patriots are in the playoffs.

They can also get in depending on the results from around the league. If the Indianapolis Colts lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, then the Patriots are in the playoffs, even with a loss to the Ravens on Sunday night.

In addition, with a Houston Texans loss or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, then the Patriots are in the playoffs, even with a loss to Baltimore on Sunday Night Football.

A Colts loss to the 49ers is the most likely path. Houston is heavy favorites over the Raiders, while the Colts are underdogs at home against San Francisco.

As for what a loss would mean for the Patriots, New England can still clinch the division ahead of Buffalo even if they lose to Baltimore on Sunday night.

New England’s final two games are against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins, both AFC East opponents. Right now, the Patriots have a 3-1 record in AFC East games, while the Bills are 3-2 in division play. If the Patriots lose Sunday night (and the Bills beat the Cleveland Browns), the teams will have matching 11-4 records with two games remaining. New England would remain in first place due to the better record in the division.

And as long New England wins their final two games to finish 13-4, even if the Bills win out as well, New England will win based on their record in AFC East games.

AFC standings entering Week 16

Here are the full AFC standings as Week 16 begins:

1. Denver Broncos (12-2) – x
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
7. Houston Texans (9-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) – e
11. Miami Dolphins (6-8) – e
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) – e
13. New York Jets (3-11) – e
14. Cleveland Browns (3-11) – e
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) – e
16. Tennessee Titans (2-12) – e

x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

AFC East standings

Here are the full standings in the AFC East, where the Bills are now just one game behind the Patriots:

1. New England Patriots (11-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
3. Miami Dolphins (6-8) – e
4. New York Jets (3-11) – e

If the Patriots and the Bills finish the season tied, tiebreakers to determine the AFC East winner will start as follows (current status of each tiebreaker is listed):

• Head-to-head record: (Season tied 1-1)
• Division record: (Patriots 3-1, Bills 3-2)
• Record in common games: (Patriots 8-1, Bills 8-2)
• Record in AFC games: (Patriots 6-3, Bills 7-3)