NFL playoff picture: How the Denver Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed in AFC in Week 18

Game update (Sunday afternoon): Jacksonville’s win over the Titans means the Jaguars are still alive in the chase for the No. 1 seed. The Broncos still control their own destiny in that race, and a win over the Chargers clinches the top spot for Denver even with Jacksonville’s win.

The Denver Broncos are closing in on the top spot in the AFC.

And they can lock that down here in Week 18.

The Broncos have already clinched both a playoff spot, and the AFC West title, ahead of Week 18. But Denver can also lock down the top spot in the conference ahead of the playoffs, along with the only bye week in the AFC. While both the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars are both alive in the chase for No. 1, only the Broncos control their own destiny.

Here is how the Broncos can lock down the AFC’s No. 1 seed here in Week 18.

Broncos No. 1 seed clinching scenarios

As noted above, while the Patriots and the Jaguars are both alive in the race for No. 1, only the Broncos control their own destiny. While they have the same 13-3 record as the Patriots, Denver has already clinched a tiebreaker advantage over New England based on their record in common games.

That gives the Broncos an edge this weekend.

With a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and will have a bye week ahead of the Divisional Round. Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has already indicated that Los Angeles will rest starting quarterback Justin Herbert, and it is very likely that the Chargers rest more players in today’s game.

Oddsmakers have already taken note, as the Chargers were listed as 12.5-point underdogs on FanDuel as of Friday afternoon.

Even if the Chargers were to win, Denver can still clinch the No. 1 seed with a loss. If the Patriots lose to the Miami Dolphins, and the Jaguars lose or tie against the Tennessee Titans, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed.

Denver also clinches the top spot in the AFC with a tie, provided the Patriots lose or tie against the Dolphins.

AFC standings entering Week 18

Here are the full AFC standings entering Week 18:

1. Denver Broncos (13-3) – xy
2. New England Patriots (13-3) – xy
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – x
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
5. Houston Texans (11-5) – x
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) – x
7. Buffalo Bills (11-5) – x
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-8) – e
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
10. Miami Dolphins (7-9) – e
11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) – e
12. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) – e
13. Cleveland Browns (4-12) – e
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13) – e
15. New York Jets (3-13) – e
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14) – e

x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
y – Team has clinched division
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention