NFL playoff picture: How New England Patriots can clinch AFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 18

Jan 4, 2026 - 22:30

Game update (Sunday afternoon): With Jacksonville’s win over the Titans, New England needs a win to remain in the No. 2 spot. The Patriots could fall to No. 3 with a loss to Miami.

After a dismal 2024 season, the New England Patriots are back in the playoffs as the winners of the AFC East.

But today, the Patriots can secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the first time since the 2017 season.

However, they will need a little bit of help from the Denver Broncos to lock that down.

New England Patriots playoff berth clinching scenarios

As things stand, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a 13-3 record, the same record as the Denver Broncos. However, the Broncos have a tiebreaker advantage over New England, thanks to a better record against common opponents. Denver won all of their games against the common opponents, while New England’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders back in Week 1 means the Broncos have the edge if they finish tied with the Patriots.

Still, if the Broncos stumble against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, the door is open. New England will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Miami Dolphins coupled with a Broncos loss or tie against the Chargers.

New England can also be the No. 1 seed with a tie against the Dolphins, provided the Broncos lose to the Chargers.

It is worth noting that Jim Harbaugh has already announced that the Chargers will rest Justin Herbert, and it is believed Los Angeles will rest more starters on Sunday. Oddsmakers have already listed the Broncos as 12.5-point favorites.

Also, New England could fall to the No. 3 seed with a loss to Miami. If the Patriots lose to the Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Titans, New England will drop to No. 3.