NFL picks: All the Wild Card round upsets we predict in the 2026 NFL Playoffs

The 2025 NFL playoffs are here! We get six games spread out from Saturday afternoon to Monday night, and only one has a spread higher than 3.5-points at the moment. Also, four of the favorites are road teams. This sets up well for some upsets, especially after a season where no teams really dominated consistently. Even the Rams, who are the biggest favorites this weekend at 10.5-points, lost to their Wild Card opponent, the Panthers, just six weeks ago.

Below, I’ll look at this weekend’s games with an eye toward upsets and I see a couple upsets on the horizon.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

The Bills finished 12-5 and second in the AFC East, while the Jaguars won the AFC South with a 13-4 record. We’ve seen the Bills lose to teams they shouldn’t have, while the Jaguars have come on strong with seven straight wins, albeit against a weak schedule.

The good news for the Jaguars is that they have one of the better run defenses in the league, which matches up well with the Bills offensive strength, which is James Cook and the run game. They’ve allowed the third-worst yards per carry at 3.86 and the fewest yards at 68, while giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

The Jaguars have been worse against the pass, but the Bills have had trouble getting their passing game going, averaging a middle of the road 216 passing yards per game. No receiver has really stepped up for the Bills this season, so it’s been the Cook and Josh Allen show on the ground. The run game has been great and enough for 12 wins, but if the Jaguars strong run defense can slow them down, this will be a tough game for the Bills. To win this game, I expect we need some more hero ball from Allen, which is possible, but not guaranteed.

Winner: Jaguars

New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots beat up on their easy schedule on their way to a 14-3 record and the No. 2 seed. The Chargers dealt with offensive line injuries and some losses to below average teams on their way to a 11-6 record and a second place finish in the AFC West.

The Patriots schedule hasn’t really hardened them for the playoffs, while the Chargers have gone through plenty of adversity, but also got to rest players in Week 18, which was very much needed. Defensively, the Chargers are good against the pass, ranking 10th in DVOA and sixth in EPA allowed. Drake Maye and company have been extremely efficient in the passing game, but I like the Chargers pass defense to slow that efficiency down this weekend.

On the season, the Chargers have allowed 16 passing touchdowns to 19 interceptions and the worst QB rating in the league. They shut down Patrick Mahomes twice, Bo Nix twice, Trevor Lawrence, and picked off Jalen Hurts four times. No quarterback threw for over 288 yards against them, while they gave up two passing touchdowns in a game just four times and never more.

The Patriots defense was good this year against weak competition, but injuries really hurt their run defense in the second half of the season. They ended up giving up 100 yard games to four of the last six starting running backs they faced. I expect the Chargers to get rookie running back Omarion Hampton going early in this game, while looking to shut down Maye’s deep passing.

Winner: Chargers