NFL MVP pick and prediction for Drake Maye vs. Matthew Stafford

As we move into the final stretch of the season the MVP race has realistically been distilled to two players — and yes, they’re both quarterbacks. We can litigate the nature of the MVP award until the cows come home, but for the foreseeable future it’s always going to be a defacto trophy for the best passer in the NFL.

That means it’s entirely down to Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford this season, and essentially everyone else is out of the picture. Maye and Stafford are the runaway favorite right now on Fanduel, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean anything outside of where the money is riding — it does show that the perception is that this is a two horse race.

The Top 10 in odds right now are:

• Drake Maye (-125)
• Matthew Stafford (+125)
• Dak Prescott (+1600)
• Jordan Love (+1600)
• Josh Allen (+3000)
• Caleb Williams (+5000)
• Bo Nix (+10000)
• Jonathan Taylor (+10000)
• Justin Herbert (+10000)
• Sam Darnold (+10000)

The only player who reasonably had a shot outside of the two quarterbacks was Jonathan Taylor, but that was incumbent upon him breaking LaDainian Tomlinson’s single-season rushing touchdown record (28), but Taylor numbers have fallen off and he won’t hit that mark now — effectively taking him out of the running. So let’s look at the comparison of Maye and Stafford to try and work out who deserves the award more.

Drake Maye

3,412 yards, 71.5% completion, 8.8 YPA, 23 TD, 6 INT
Projected: 4,462 yards, 71.5% completion, 8.8 YPA, 30 TD, 8 INT

What Drake Maye has achieved this season is mind-boggling. We haven’t just witnessed the ascent of the NFL’s next great quarterback, but nobody at the position is doing more with less talent at the receiver position. Maye leads the NFL in passing yards, despite his top three targets being a 32-year-old Stefon Diggs, TE Hunter Henry, and Mack Hollins — but herein lies the magic of what the Patriots QB has done this season.

Despite having a motley crew of pass catchers around him, Maye has given SIX players 35+ targets this season. While there’s obviously a preference for his No. 1 in Diggs (79 targets), it’s far more a case of Maye reading the entire field, and consistently finding the best option. These aren’t dink and dunk plays either, with Maye being the best downfield passer in the NFL this season, with 2,045 yards completed air yards this season.

This means that Maye isn’t leaning on YAC for his numbers, but he’s throwing players open. He is the one making the plays. If you removed Drake Maye from the Patriots there’s a very real chance New England tops out as a five win team. Instead they’re unseating the Bills atop the AFC East, will cruise into the playoffs, and give Patriots fans what they’ve been craving since Tom Brady left.

If we go by the letter of the law then Maye might not be the best quarterback this season, but there is no question he’s the most valuable player to his team.

Matthew Stafford

3,073 yards, 66.3% completion, 7.7 YPA, 32 TD, 4 INT
Projected: 4,353 yards, 66.3% completion, 7.7 YPA, 45 TD, 6 INT

In a year where quarterbacks around the NFL have largely struggled, Stafford is turning back the clock with mammoth numbers. As it stands he’s set to reach 4,000 passing yards for the first time since 2021 — but the big difference is the efficiency with how the Rams’ QB is throwing the ball.

A staggering 8% of Stafford’s passes this season have gone for touchdowns. That’s a full 1.2% better than when he won the Super Bowl with Los Angeles. The big reason for this is that the front office made the move to upgrade his weapons, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams being the most fearsome, complementary 1-2 in the NFL. Nacua’s gift for moving the chains, being strong at the catch point, and muscling his way for hard yards is perfectly complemented with Adams’ unbelievable knack at finding the soft spots in defenses in the red zone, where he’s turned into a touchdown machine.

Stafford + Puka + Adams is a football cheat code that few teams have had an answer for, and the QB already broke an NFL record this season for most consecutive touchdown passes without an interception.

Essentially the Rams offense operates on one, almost-unstoppable level: We have more talent than you do, and we bet you can’t beat these three guys. Over, and over, and over again Stafford targets Nacua or Adams in sequence, and defenses really haven’t had an answer. So much of this is about how, and where Stafford is throwing the ball — as well as a such a profound understanding of football that he can ensure either one of his top targets has a chance to make a big play on any down.

There is no doubt that Stafford has been the best quarterback this season. This is not a case of scheme opening things up for him, but the QB having the stones to deal the ball to his two top guys and always giving them a chance to complete.

So, who wins the award?

This is profoundly difficult to really answer, because there’s always a lot of voter tilt when it comes to awarding the MVP. Heck, look at last year: We had Joe Burrow throw for damn near 5,000 yards and 43 touchdowns, but he lost out to Josh Allen who was 14th in passing. Sure, Allen ran for yards and TDs as well, but a lot of the voting came down to the rub that Allen had been so close so many times before and therefore was “owed” this one.

Stafford has never been the MVP. At 37-years-old this might be his last rodeo. There’s just this feeling that voters won’t be able to help themselves in giving him the trophy as part of a career achievement award, as much as anything else. Especially when we might need to split hairs to argue over which of these two players deserved it more.

For my money the MVP is Drake Maye. I think if you took a replacement level QB and put them on the Rams right now the team would probably still be a nine win team at worst. That’s just what happens when you have Sean McVay drawing up an offense with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on it. However, I think if you stuck any other mid-tier QB on the Patriots instead of Maye then the team wouldn’t sniff the playoffs. Maye is showing that he is going to be a problem for the rest of the NFL for a long, long time — and watch out when this team gets upgrades at receiver with some younger, more dynamic talent who can give him more YAC.

Stafford is the better QB who will probably win the award. Maye is the most valuable player, who be snubbed. At least that’s how I see it.