NBA power rankings: Updated championship chances for all 30 teams

The start of the 2025-2026 NBA season has been full of surprises. The Eastern Conference was thought to be a New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers showdown, but so far the Detroit Pistons have emerged as the top team with the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat as their biggest challengers. The West always felt destined to be an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets slugfest, but the Houston Rockets are making the case that they’re also a legit contender with the Los Angeles Lakers not far behind.

The picture at the bottom of the league also has some surprises. No one expected the Los Angeles Clippers to be this bad, and somehow that means another top draft pick could be going to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who controls their selection. The Pacers wasted no time in entering the tank race, while a team like the Jazz is punching a bit above its weight so far.

It’s time for another league power rankings with the calendar changed to Dec. Let’s dive in.

30. Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have the bleakest future in the league in my eyes. I wasn’t a fan of their five-man rookie draft class, but obviously there’s still plenty of time for them to prove me wrong. There’s a high volume of young players on the roster, but I just don’t think any of them look like long-term franchise pillars. At least Michael Porter Jr. has been fantastic, and should command real interest come February’s trade deadline. Without Houston owning pick swaps in 2027 or 2029, the Nets are desperate to find a franchise player in the 2026 draft. A lot of teams need lottery luck this year, but no one needs it as badly as Brooklyn.

29. Washington Wizards

The Wizards have some things they can be excited about this year: Alex Sarr has taken a substantial leap in his second season, Kyshawn George looks like a keeper on the wing, and they’re once again going to have maximize lottery odds at a top pick. This rebuild would suddenly look promising if it added Darryn Peterson, A.J. Dybantsa, or Cameron Boozer as the new primary option and knocked everyone else down a peg.

28. Indiana Pacers

The value of the Pacers’ gap year will be determined during the lottery, but Indiana has to like its odds of grabbing a top pick. As if losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner in free agency wasn’t enough, the Pacers have had most of their remaining roster decimated by injuries to start the season. Can Indiana just fast-forward to July already? Next season could be very fun again if Haliburton is fully health — especially if he lands a blue chip prospect next to him.

27. New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are praying they drop on lottery night after sending their unprotected first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks for the rights to Derik Queen. Queen has been outstanding thus far as a bulldozer driver with an impressive combination of touch, power, and balance, and his passing already looks a lot better in the NBA than it did at Maryland. Queen and fellow rookie Jeremiah Fears give the Pelicans hope even as Zion Williamson’s value disintegrates, but the good vibes will be dented irrevocably if they hand over a top-3 pick to Atlanta.

26. Charlotte Hornets

Kon Knueppel would win NBA Rookie of the Year if the season ended today, and that alone is enough to mark this as a successful Hornets season. Add in Ryan Kalkbrenner and Sion James, and the Hornets easily boast the best rookie class this season. Unfortunately for Charlotte, there’s still has no further clarity on if LaMelo Ball can be its franchise player, whether last year’s top-10 pick Tidjane Salaun is even an NBA player, and what it looks like to have a fully healthy Brandon Miller. The Hornets are at least showing signs of something, and one extra talented prospect could take this thing to the next level. Please just get rid of Miles Bridges already.

25. Sacramento Kings

About nine out of every 10 Kings seasons are absolutely terrible, and this one is no different. Keegan Murray and rookie wing Nique Clifford might be the only long-term keepers on this roster as a flawed veteran core is just waiting to blow up. It feels like everyone from Domantas Sabonis to Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to Keon Ellis and Devin Carter could be dealt by the deadline. I’m sorry Kings fans, I want good things for you.

24. Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg is the youngest player in the NBA, and he’s starting to string together great performances after an understandably slow start to his rookie season. The Mavericks are still compiling a lot of losses and just biding their time until an Anthony Davis trade market emerges. This is all going to be worth it if Dallas lands a top-3 pick to be Flagg’s co-star, and there should be some pretty good consolation prizes (Mikel Brown Jr., Kingston Flemings, Nate Ament) should the Mavs fall. Without control of their first-round pick in 2027-2030, Dallas really needs to make a good pick this year to set up the rest of the Flagg era for success.

23. Utah Jazz

The Jazz’s first-round draft pick is top-8 protected in the 2026 draft, otherwise it is owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder in what would be another nightmare for the rest of the league. I would expect the Jazz to get serious about losing in short order, but there have been some encouraging signs in the early season. Lauri Markkanen is having the best season of his career as a 7-foot scoring virtuoso, Keyonte George is taking a big step forward in this third season, and rookie Ace Bailey has shown some enticing flashes. Give head coach Will Hardy a top-3 pick and look out.

22. Los Angeles Clippers

Almost everything has gone wrong for the Clippers this year. Last season’s No. 3 overall defense has completely fallen off and now ranks near the bottom of the league. Swapping out Norm Powell for Bradley Beal was a massive bust. Kawhi Leonard still isn’t reliable (shocker), and head coach Ty Lue hasn’t figure out how to balance his lineups even with a seemingly deep bench. Just about every move the Clippers made this offseason has gone wrong, and they owe their draft pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder in what’s a catastrophic situation for the rest of the league. At least James Harden has been excellent, and suddenly might have some real trade value. The Clippers have pushed the Kawhi era as far as it could go, and it’s bound to have a morbid ending.

21. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls’ 6-1 start feels like a mirage now. Chicago has clawed out several last second wins thanks to Nikola Vucevic’s clutch shot-making before free-falling down the standings with losses to many of the worst teams in the league (Pelicans, Hornets, Nets, Jazz, Pacers). Blowing these easy games has completely ruined the good work Chicago did at the start of the season without Coby White and Zach Collins, and now it seems like the season is effectively over. The Bulls might end up making the play-in tournament in the soft Eastern Conference, but they shouldn’t be proud of it.

20. Memphis Grizzlies

It’s been a nightmare season for the Grizzlies. This team seems like it’s always decimated by injuries, which again took a toll to start the season. While shorthanded, Ja Morant started beefing with the coaching staff to force their hand on a one-game suspension before suffering his own injury. There is some hope for the future: rookie wing Cedric Coward looks outstanding and could end up being a stud, while Zach Edey has smashed the doubters to become arguably the league’s top sophomore. The Morant situation is hanging over Memphis, and Phoenix’s surprisingly good season means a top 2026 draft pick likely isn’t on the way. I trust this front office to figure things out, but this has been a bummer of a start.

19. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks’ nightmare scenario is here: Giannis Antetokounmpo is essentially asking out, and he reportedly wants to control his next destination. Milwaukee already took on significant five-year cap anchor by waiving and stretching Damian Lillard in an effort to appeal to Giannis (and sign Myles Turner), but it’s completely blown up in their face. The Bucks started 4-1 and then it all went downhill. A Giannis trade feels inevitable now, and if he gets to pick his landing spot, the Bucks’ future is going to be incredibly bleak without control of their future first-round picks through 2030.

18. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers were supposed to be a defensive powerhouse this year, but instead they’ve remained competitive by chucking threes, pounding the offensive glass, and playing at one of the NBA’s fastest paces as the defense has struggled to hit its stride. Deni Avdija has taken a massive scoring jump and looks like a worthy first-time All-Star, Jrue Holiday is giving Portland good-looking veteran minutes, and Scoot Henderson should be back from injury before the new year. The Blazers’ playoff fate will ultimately be determined in the play-in.

17. Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the early season, and they certainly look a lot more competitive than I expected. First-year head coach Jordan Ott has Phoenix playing competent ball around Devin Booker on both ends of the floor, with Dillon Brooks’ defensive bite, Grayson Allen’s shooting, and a deep center rotation all helping keep the team afloat. Phoenix’s schedule is about to get tougher and I’m a bit skeptical it can keep securing offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers at its current excellent rate, but the baseline play is so, so much better than last year, and that’s worth celebrating.

16. Boston Celtics

A gap year will not be in the cards for the Celtics it seems. The offense is top-5 in efficiency right now with a characteristically three-point heavy shot-profile that now includes extra punch on the offensive glass. Neemias Queta looks like a real find up front, Jordan Walsh is starting to emerge as a legit defensive stopper, and Jaylen Brown just never tires as a volume scorer. If Derrick White (who has been dominant defensively) and Payton Pritchard can finally get hot again as shooters, maybe the Celtics really can be a factor if Jayson Tatum eventually rejoins the team from his Achilles rehab later in the season.

15. Philadelphia 76ers

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Sixers are ramping up. Paul George has looked good early into his return from a knee injury knowing he doesn’t have to do the heavy lifting on this team (sorry for calling you one of the NBA’s most underwhelming players). Jared McCain is also back from injury and showing some of the per-minute scoring brilliance he displayed in his limited rookie season. Joel Embiid should be a factor again soon too … at least until his next absence. This is now fully Tyrese Maxey’s team, and he’s playing at an All-NBA level while somehow playing a league-leading 40 minutes per night. If VJ Edgecombe can get past the rookie wall and the veteran stars can give them anything, Philly should be a top-6 East team by the end of the year.

14. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were the most difficult team to rank in this exercise. Golden State brought a very old roster into this season, and they’re already seeing injuries and age-related decline pile up. The hope for one more vintage Al Horford season hasn’t transpired yet, and maybe that was always a delusional wish at age-39. The offense turns the ball over way to much, doesn’t play with power on the offensive glass, and sits outside of the top-20 in free throw rate. The Warriors just don’t have the athletes to win the possession game on most nights, but there’s enough talent here to be a major pain in the playoffs if they can get healthy. Stephen Curry is still one of the best players in the world when he’s on, but it’s impossible for him to be that player every night over 82 games at 37 years old. Draymond Green’s offense has been just awful with 49.4 percent true shooting, 52.4 percent rim finishing, and a huge turnover rate. Jonathan Kuminga’s feel-good bounce-back story lasted like two weeks as he’s dealt with a knee injury, and a big leap from Brandin Podziemski hasn’t happened, either. The Curry-Green-Jimmy Butler trio is still going to be hell to play against if the Warriors can make the playoffs, but ultimately this team just isn’t good enough.

13. Orlando Magic

The Magic look like a more cohesive team without Paolo Banchero, and now his challenge will be proving he can adapt his game upon his return from injury to give this team the extra offensive firepower it needs. Orlando is off to a 7-3 start without their former No. 1 pick which follows a trend from last season when the team was much better with Franz Wagner on and Banchero off. I’ve always been a believer in Banchero’s talent and he was starting to play really well before he got hurt, but the Magic’s offense just makes more sense when it’s centered around Wagner’s on-ball driving, and Paolo needs to show that he can fit in around it. Orlando hasn’t escaped the bottom 10 in offensive rating in more than a decade, and right now they’re playing at a top-10 level with the slowest offensive pace of any team in the NBA. This team’s identity starts with defense, and they keep getting better on that end, too. With Anthony Black looking like a legit breakout player so far, Orlando could possibly regain East contender status if Paolo and Franz can finally make each other better.

12. Toronto Raptors

Someone from the East’s purported middle tier had to breakthrough this season, and it turns out it might be the Raptors. Toronto’s bold decision to add Brandon Ingram to its already expensive core is paying off nicely, with the veteran’s tough shot-making giving the team just enough offensive juice to complement its very good defense. The Raptors’ defense has been flirting with top-5 status all year and it doesn’t seem like a fluke: they have a ton of length on the perimeter defensively, boast a legit shutdown stopper in Scottie Barnes, and have a plus rim protector in Jakob Poeltl. The offense is near the bottom of the league in three-point volume, and they don’t get much back on the offensive glass, so I fear there’s a chance the bottom could fall out over time. Still, this starting lineup is proving it’s pretty damn good with bounce-back seasons for Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, and the bench led by Sandro Mamukelashvili and Jamal Shead looks solid, too. There’s some fluke potential for the Raptors’ hot start, but I’m buying it more and more.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are tracking as a solid Western Conference playoff team, but they don’t look fully right yet. The offense has been better than the defense for the first time since the Rudy Gobert trade, benefitting from Anthony Edwards’ efficient scoring explosions and Julius Randle’s continued All-Star-caliber bully ball. Edwards is truly becoming one of the best three-point shooters in the league right now by making 41 percent of 8.8 attempts per game from deep, but his mid-range game and decision-making as a passer will be under a big spotlight come playoff time. Gobert remains really good at age-33, with a +18.9 net-rating for his on/off minutes. The Wolves could really use a real point guard, but the bold trade for Rob Dillingham on 2024 draft night is looking like a bust. After two straight conference finals appearances, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves tried to make a big move at the deadline if they still haven’t hit their groove.

10. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta has been hot since Trae Young went down with a knee sprain that will keep him out a while longer. It’s no surprise the Hawks’ defense looks more formidable without the diminutive point guard, but the offense’s ability to find new contributors every night is particularly impressive. Jalen Johnson is morphing into Atlanta’s engine as a killer transition scorer who can pass like a point guard and clean the glass as well as any forward in the NBA. The Hawks are constantly finding new co-stars around him, from Onyeka Okongwu turning into a knockdown three-point shooter overnight to Vit Krejci’s occasional scoring explosions to Nickeil Alexander-Walker looking really good on both ends of the court. Young can take this offense to an even higher level upon return as long as he’s shooting the ball well, but a more egalitarian approach is looking good on the Hawks right now. This team is set up really well to trade for Giannis. Will they want to play ball, or prefer keeping the best of the Bucks and Pelicans pick?

9. Miami Heat

The Heat revamped their offense, dug their heels in defensively, and became one of the most pleasant surprises of the early season. Miami went away from screens (not just ball screens, all screens!) and cranked up the pace to league-leading levels for an iso-heavy offense that has lifted them from No. 21 last year to No. 13 this year. The offseason trade for Norman Powell was a brilliant move, giving them an engine who can mix usage and efficiency (66.3 percent true shooting) to keep the offense going even when Tyler Herro was injured. With Herro looking pretty good in his return, Kel’el Ware breaking out in his second season, and Jamie Jaquez returning to form after a down sophomore season, the Heat have some real weapons to work with, and Erik Spoelstra is maximizing every piece. Spo has been considered the best coach in the NBA for years, but he’s still never won a Coach of the Year award. If the defense stays this dominant and the offense can stay in the top-half of the league, the Heat are going to win enough games to finally give him the award.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs have looked nothing like an Eastern Conference front-runner 20+ games into the season, and it’s fair to be at least a little concerned right now. Cleveland remains really beat up with Darius Garland barely playing this season and Max Strus still out with a foot injury, so maybe this is just a case of the team needing to get healthy. Still, the Cavs don’t really have an identity on either end of the floor right now. Evan Mobley is regressing a bit after last season’s breakout, Ty Jerome’s flamethrower shooting off the bench has been missed, and Lonzo Ball doesn’t look like a miracle-worker yet. The Cavs’ regular season success last year proved that less is more with Donovan Mitchell, and this year he’s back to being a massively high-usage guard, and the team has been worse of for it even though Mitchell has been amazing. The Cavs were a Finals-or-bust team coming into the year, and at least to this point most of the signs are pointing to bust.

7. Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are ascending into the next great young team in the Eastern Conference. Detroit’s scorching start can mostly be owed to an elite defense, but there’s to believe this offense can be built for playoff settings, too. The guard/center battery of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren is built to get tough buckets in the halfcourt. Cunningham is emerging into one of best players in the East, and while his turnovers and scoring inefficiency can be frustrating at times, he consistently delivers in the clutch while also playing a vital role on defense. Duren is turning into a full-blown monster at age-22, showing improved attacking off the dribble and elite rebounding on both ends. The Pistons also have the best depth in the conference, and at this point it’s hard for head coach JB Bickerstaff to give everyone minutes. I think the Pistons are real, but Bickerstaff still needs to prove himself in the playoffs before I say they’re winning the East. For now, this has been an incredible start for Detroit, and it feels like the first step in what should be a sustained stretch of contention.

6. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have kept rolling even with Victor Wembanyama out of the lineup with a calf strain. De’Aaron Fox is stepping into a starring role after missing the start of the year, and he’s earning every penny of his massive extension so far. Fox’s speedy shot-creation off the bounce is something San Antonio has been desperately missing in the Wemby era, and it’s helped that he’s been hot from three so far. The free agent addition of Luke Kornet is also looking like a masterful move, giving the Spurs real rim protection even in Wembanyama’s absence and a high-level reserve when he’s healthy. This team hasn’t even really worked in its two rookie lottery picks yet, and I’d expect No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper to break out soon. If Wembanyama comes back as a top-5 player, it now seems like the Spurs have the horses to not just make the playoffs, but make a little noise once they get there.

5. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are rolling through the first 20 games. Luka Doncic is playing at a top-3 level in the world, Austin Reaves is an easy All-Star who could push for All-NBA consideration, and LeBron James hasn’t even hit his groove yet in his return from sciatica. Doncic is posting the highest usage rate in the league, and he’s operating at very good efficiency to set up scoring chances for himself and his teammates. Reaves is playing the role of the shifty secondary creator next to Luka once mastered by Jalen Brunson and Kyrie Irving, and he’s been every bit as excellent in the job as those two were. Doncic is making players like Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton look better than ever before, and JJ Redick continues to push the right buttons and looks like a long-term fit at head coach. I’m still worried about the Lakers’ defense long-term, but this start has been as good as anyone could have hoped for, and Doncic is such a playoff killer that Los Angeles will always have a puncher’s chance.

4. New York Knicks

The Knicks feel like a sizable favorite to come out of the East after the start of the season. The offense is humming in the early days of the Mike Brown tenure, the glass is getting cleaned at a league-best level on both ends of the floor, and this team just doesn’t beat itself very often. Jalen Brunson remains the workhorse for New York and he’s playing great ball to start the year, but it feels like he doesn’t have to do quite as much because everyone is chipping in. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby look like the best wing combo in basketball once the latter returns from a hamstring strain, with both shooting the lights out and boasting tons of matchup versatility defensively. Mitchell Robinson has been a monster with his rebounding and shot-blocking, and New York has to pray he can stay healthy. Karl-Anthony Towns is the one Knick who hasn’t been at his best yet, but he’s still been fine in his role. The Knicks need to watch out for a Robinson injury and for playoff teams hunting the Towns/Brunson pairing defensively, but it feels like New York has both the highest floor and highest ceiling in the conference right now.

3. Houston Rockets

People who say every NBA team plays the same way these days should look no further than the Rockets (and the other two teams ahead of them on this list). Houston has made itself a legitimate championship contender despite being the lowest volume three-point shooting team in the league, because they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in league history. The Rockets are rebounding like 40 percent of their misses, and all those extra possessions are making an elite offense (No. 2 right now) even without shooting. While Houston’s volume is super low, it is making 40 percent of the threes it does take, as good as anyone in the league. Reed Sheppard has started to pop into a real contributor in his second season, Kevin Durant can still carry the team for stretches without having to do too much, and Steven Adams remains one of the NBA’s best role players. With Alperen Sengun making the leap that was predicted and a young roster still seemingly getting better every month, Houston has a fantastic set up for both this year and the future. The Rockets play with so much physicality and power that the two teams ahead of them on this list should be praying to be on the opposite side of the bracket from them entering the playoffs.

2. Denver Nuggets

How good has the Nuggets offense been so far? If the season ended today, Denver would boast the best offensive rating in league history. Nikola Jokic might still be getting better, and he’s at the controls of a brutally efficient offense that rips the nets from three, avoids turnovers, gets extra possessions on the glass, and consistently gets to the foul line. Jokic’s dominance is comical at this best as he leads the league in assists and rebounds while scoring nearly 30 points per game, and he has an improved supporting cast around him. Jamal Murray is having a fantastic season and could finally make his first All-Star team. Aaron Gordon’s leap last season was real, and he’s more than just a great fit next to Jokic at this point — he’s one of the best forwards in the NBA. Cam Johnson has gotten off to a slow start as the big offseason acquisition, but Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas have been really good. There should be some concern about the defense here, but Denver feels like the biggest contender to basketball’s undeniable juggernaut right now.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are even better than last year’s championship team, they’re only going to continue to get better in the future, and that’s terrifying for the rest of the league. Not since the Kevin Durant Warriors has the NBA seen such a dominant front-runner, and this OKC group has run away from the pack in a totally different way. The Thunder have one of the best defenses ever by blurring the lines between fouling and physicality, and their ability to rack up steals that turn into easy layups is unprecedented in this era of the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best guard alive and the most consistent superstar in basketball, and by the way he’s shooting nearly 44 percent from three this year. Chet Holmgren is playing like an All-NBA player, and Jalen Williams has looked good in his return from injury. The emergence of last year’s second round pick Ajay Mitchell has filled arguably the Thunder’s biggest hole as a bench creator when SGA is resting. Isaiah Hartenstein is also having an awesome season and gives them the physicality needed to matchup with Denver and Houston. My prediction that the Thunder would be the third team in league history to cross 70 wins is looking good so far. The fact that they’re about to land a top pick in a loaded 2026 NBA Draft from the pathetic Clippers just feels unfair. Everyone is chasing OKC for the foreseeable future.