Actually felt like déjà vu yesterday, falling unexpectedly within the latter innings of the primary over/below wager earlier than claiming a win on an below within the nightcap. That’s occurred two days in a row, however right this moment brings about just one whole to have funds on.
At Kauffman Stadium this night, the Colorado Rockies and Kansas Metropolis Royals will start their interleague three-game set. There’s an attractive pitching matchup within the collection opener, with Ryan Feltner taking up Kris Bubic.
The story of Bubic is an attention-grabbing one. He debuted through the 60-game COVID season and manufactured respectable outcomes as a rookie, pitching to a 4.32 ERA in 10 begins whereas registering practically a strikeout per body (49 Ks in 50 innings).
Bubic’s efficiency the subsequent couple of seasons step by step dropped off, however he did start displaying indicators of lastly harnessing his abilities within the 2023 marketing campaign with three promising outings. Sadly, the previous first-round draft choose then bought damage and required Tommy John surgical procedure, costing him greater than a full calendar yr of motion.
Late final season is when Bubic would return — as a reliever — and the 27-year-old fared very effectively in his restricted innings, etching a 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an eye-opening strikeout price of 11.6 Okay/9 in 27 appearances.
Fortuitously, the choice was made to have Bubic return to the rotation, which he additionally earned with a really encouraging spring coaching — so encouraging, in actual fact, that the left-hander was personally one in every of my prime three sleepers getting into the season.
Bubic has delivered effectively so far for these of us who labeled him a breakout candidate. Sure, it’s solely been 4 begins, however it appears he’s selecting up from the place he left off a yr in the past, honing a 1.88 ERA. Moreover, Bubic is limiting opposing batters to a mere .217 common and nonetheless sustaining a wholesome strikeout price (10.1 Okay/9). Each marks are much better than what he’s ever churned out beforehand as a starter.
In his quest to maintain it going, Bubic is getting a light-hitting adversary tonight. Usually, that’s not a time period that might be utilized to the Rockies, however that’s the state of affairs with Denver baseball lately. They’re third from the underside of baseball in runs scored (68) and close to the underside in staff batting common (.218), on-base proportion (.289) and slugging proportion (.350).
Colorado can be struggling towards left-handed pitching. Not solely are they hitting .215 off southpaws, however they’ve additionally punched out 65 instances in 186 at-bats with a lefty on the hill — that is a price of greater than as soon as each three ABs!
Surprisingly, the Royals are additionally off to a troublesome begin on the plate. Okay.C. is tied for the fewest runs scored (67) within the league and its collective .210 batting common ranks third worst.
Do we’ve got a beginning pitcher on the rubber that may maintain them down? I feel we do.
Feltner is arguably the most effective pitcher within the Rockies’ rotation, establishing himself final yr with a 4.49 ERA throughout 30 begins — together with a standout 3.00 ERA in 10 assignments following the All-Star break. His 1.15 WHIP by means of this stretch was spectacular, too.
Of word, the previous Ohio State Buckeye threw the ball quite a bit higher on the highway in comparison with hitter-friendly Coors Area. In 15 highway outings, Feltner constructed a 3.93 ERA and usually stored batters in test by yielding a .234/.306/.375 slash line. Bettors ought to really feel alright backing him away from Colorado.
I used to be actually hoping this recreation would draw a complete of 9. If this had been the very starting of the season, it in all probability would have, however given Bubic’s emergence, he’s beginning to get extra respect now from the oddsmakers. Anyhow, at 8.5, I’m nonetheless on it.
Choose: UNDER 8.5 (-122, FanDuel)
2025 MLB Betting Document: 16-14-1, -0.69 unit
Over/Unders: 14-10-1
Props: 2-3
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Outcomes: Reds-Marlins Underneath 8 (“loss”), Brewers-Giants Underneath 8 (WIN)
Every wager graded as if it had been to win one unit except in any other case indicated.
Comply with me on X (previously Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential extra picks.