Miami vs. Ole Miss prediction, odds, pick for CFP semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl

For a second straight season, the second and third seeds in the CFP have been eliminated. Miami and Ole Miss both took wins in the quarterfinal and are now one game away from the National Championship.  It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Miami-Ole Miss CFP semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl prediction and pick.

Miami is now 12-2 on the season.  It was a solid start with five straight wins, including defeating Notre Dame and South Florida, before their first loss. It was a three-point loss at home to Louisville. After a win over Stanford, the Hurricanes took their second loss of the season, falling to SMU. The team finished with four straight wins, including a 31-point victory over Pitt to close out the regular season.

Despite not playing for the ACC title due to losing a five-way tie-breaker to Duke, Miami got a spot in the playoff. In the first round, they hit the road to face Texas A&M, winning the game 10-3.  Then the Hurricanes would face Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl. Miami was once again dominant on defense. They intercepted Julian Sayin twice, including a Miami pick-six on the way to a 24-14 victory, and a date with Ole Miss.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 13-1 on the campaign, after two CFP wins. They had a 6-0 start until they fell to Georgia on the road by eight points. The Rebels then finished the season with five straight wins, including defeating fellow CFP team Oklahoma. This would lead to a rematch of an earlier season with Tulane in the first round. The Rebels dominated Tulane at home, winning 41-10. This would lead to another rematch for Ole Miss, as they faced Georgia in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl. Unlike the first matchup, Georgia built the first-half lead with the help of a defensive touchdown, leading 21-12. Georgia gave up the lead in the fourth quarter, but tied the game with 56 seconds left. The Rebels drove the field and hit a field goal with six seconds left, and then added a safety on the way to a 39-34 win.

These two teams have faced off three times in the past. Ole Miss won the first two games, and Miami won the most recent meeting. Still, the two wins for Ole Miss were in 1936 and 1940, while the Miami victory was in 1951. The winner will head to the National Championship Game. Miami has won five National Championships, with the most recent being in 2001. They defeated Nebraska in the 2002 Rose Bowl, which was the BCS National Championship Game. They fell in the BCS title game in 2003 to Ohio State at the Fiesta Bowl, closing out the 2002 season.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss has three claimed national championships, with the last one being in 1962.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Odds

Miami: -3 (-118)

Ole Miss: +3 (-102)

Over: 51.5 (-115)

Under: 51.5 (-105)

Miami vs. Ole Miss Key Injuries

Miami- WR Tony Johnson (Questionable), WR Daylyn Upshaw (Out), TE Dylan Reiman (Out), TE Jackson Carver (Out), WR Chance Robinson (Out), DT Ahmad Moten Sr. (Questionable), CB Damri Brown (Questionable), CB OJ Frederique (Questionable)

Ole Miss-  TE Hayden Bradley (Questionable), WR Samari Reed (Out), WR Caleb Cunningham (Out)

Miami vs. Ole Miss Betting Trends

– Miami is 9-5 against the spread this year. They have covered in three straight and four of the last five, while also covering in their only neutral site game.

– Ole Miss is also 9-5 against the spread. The Rebels have covered in three straight and in their only neutral site game.

– When a favorite, Miami is 6-5 against the spread. The Hurricanes have covered just twice in their last five games as a favorite. They have also lost twice outright as a favorite.

– Ole Miss has been the underdog just three times this year, going 2-1. When the team has covered, they have won the game outright.

– The under has been the right side for Miami games in ten of 14 matchups, and has hit in four of the last five games.

– The over has hit in seven of 14 games for Ole Miss, but has hit just once in the last three games.   

Keys to Miami vs. Ole Miss Matchup

The key for Miami in this game is to get the running game going. The offense has been one of the top in FBS this year. They are 26th in points per game while sitting 50th in yards per game. The Hurricanes have been average on the ground, sitting 69th in the running department, but they are 44th in passing. Carson Beck has been great, passing for 3,313 yards and 27 touchdowns. Still, the key to this game is going to be Mark Fletcher Jr. He has run for 947 yards with ten touchdowns this season. He has also scored twice in the receiving game. He has been phenomenal in the last two games, running for 262 yards with 25 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.

The Ole Miss defense has been stellar this season. They are 39th in opponent points per game while sitting 46th in opponent yards per game. Further, they are 39th against the pass, but just 66th against the run. The Rebels need TJ Dottery to step up in the game. He led the team with 87 tackles, while having half a sack, two pass breakups, and two forced fumbles. He has been great in the playoffs with ten tackles and a forced fumble over the two games.

Miami has been one of the best defensive units in the nation this year, which will make for an amazing clash between them and the top-level Ole Miss defense. They are ninth in points per game and second in yards per game. The Rebels are 31st in rushing yards per game and fourth in passing yards. While Trindiad Chambliss is looking for an extra year of eligibility, he has been sensational this year. He has thrown for 3,660 yards with 21 touchdowns while running for 520 yards and eight scores. Against Georgia, he threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns.

The Miami defense has been great this year. They are fourth in opponent points per game while sitting tenth in opponent yards per game. They are fourth against the run while sitting 44th against the pass. Star safety Jakobe Thomas will be the key player for Miami in this game. He is second on the team in tackles with 64. He also has 3.5 sacks, four pass breakups, five interceptions with a touchdown, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. The Canes defender has 16 tackles, with half a sack and a pick so far in the playoffs.

Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Ole Miss was able to torch a strong Georgia defense as Chambliss threw two touchdowns while not being sacked. Further, the offense was balanced with Kewan Lacy running for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Miami did two great things on defense against Ohio State, picking off Sayin twice and sacking him five times. Chambliss has thrown three interceptions all season, while being sacked at the seventh-lowest rate per dropback in the country. He has not thrown an interception while being sacked just once in the last three games. Ole Miss may be missing some assistants, but they will have their line and star quarterback, which will be enough in this one, as the over hits as well.

Final Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick: Ole Miss +3 (-102) and Over 51.5 (-115) 

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