Mel Kiper’s first NFL mock draft had 6 big surprises

The NFL Scouting Combine is a month away and we’re already hitting draft season. At this point everyone knows that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick, barring something catastrophic happening — but what happens from there on is anyone’s guess.

Mel Kiper Jr. is already to work with his first mock draft of the year, and while there are a lot which align with our own latest mock here at SB Nation, there are also some absolute stunners. Kiper is known for marching to his own beat when it comes to the draft and not always aligning with national sentiment, so let’s dive in.

David Bailey is the second EDGE off the board

It really could be splitting hairs when it comes to the top pass rushers in the 2026 class after Arvell Reese, but it’s still a little wild to see Texas Tech’s David Bailey passing Rueben Bain Jr. of Miami. It wasn’t long ago that Bain was projected as the No. 1 overall pick (assuming at the time the Titans were picking and didn’t need a QB), but Bailey really came on towards the end of the season.

The big question for Robert Saleh and the Titans when it comes to a pass rusher is whether or not they want more scheme versatility (which Bain Jr. offers), or perhaps a more polished player (in Bailey) who would purely be relegated to outside linebacker.

Sonny Styles at No. 12

Make no mistake: Styles is a BEAST, but this would be phenomenally early for a middle linebacker to go in the draft. This would be the earliest a linebacker without a pass rush skillset would be taken since Devin White in 2019, and Luke Kuechly in 2012 before him.

Kiper calls Styles “a Top 10 player” in this year’s class, which very well could be right — but it’s a factor of linebacker being a lesser valued position where there isn’t that much of a difference between having a Top 3 middle linebacker, and someone in the 5-to-10 range. Still, the Cowboys have talked a lot about wanting to bolster their pass rush, which is why he fits the bill.

The Jets still go quarterback

There’s absolutely a need for quarterback in New York, but I’m highly skeptical that taking Ty Simpson with the No. 16 pick (as Kiper does) is the right move for them. This is a team that needs to get off the hampster wheel of QB development and develop a team that doesn’t need a young passer to flourish. There is a very good chance the Jets will be back in the Top 10 in 2027, as well being in a spot where they’ll own three first round picks — which could allow them to move up and truly get a franchise QB.

Simpson is promising, but risky. The Jets can’t afford to throw bad money after good in desperation to land a QB.

Mansoor Delane falls

We had Delane as the No. 1 corner in our mock, going to the Miami Dolphins with the No. 11 overall pick. Kiper has him at No. 18 to the Minnesota Vikings. That isn’t so far off, but it’s more that Kiper has Jermod McCoy of Tennessee going earlier that is a little shocking.

This would be a dream scenario for the Vikings, however. They need secondary help in the worst way, and landing Delane later in the first round would be incredible for them.

C.J. Allen in the Top 20?

The multi-role linebacker from Georgia is seen as an early second round pick by most analysts, but much like the Styles pick early in the draft, Kiper is going linebacker earlier than expected once more. The Carolina Panthers take Allen at No. 19 in the mock, which is justified by the possibility they’ll lose starter Christian Roseboom in free agency.

Taking a linebacker in the first assumes the Panthers are happy with the development of their pass rush, which remains a bit of a mess. This is definitely a surprise.

The NFL goes receiver happy

This is a really good crop of receivers, but Kiper is all-in on teams going heavy into pass catchers. We had five going in the first round in our mock — which felt high, but Kiper has six.

Perhaps the most surprising is Chris Brazell II of Tennessee sneaking into the first round and going to the Bills, rather than Kevin Conception — who is seen as having more upside as a burner in the NFL. One thing about Brazell is that you can’t teach size, and at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds he’s an intriguing pick.