Mavericks vs. Warriors 2025 NBA Christmas prediction, odds, pick

We’re back once again to continue Christmas Day in the NBA as we head to the Western Conference for this next marquee showdown. The Dallas Mavericks (12-19) will take on the Golden State Warriors (15-15) in the first meeting for both teams. Check our NBA Christmas odds series for the Mavericks-Warriors prediction and pick.

The Dallas Mavericks are currently in 11th place in the Western Conference, most recently upsetting the Denver Nuggets 131-130. They’ve gone a positive 6-4 over their last 10 games and Cooper Flagg has officially arrived with another breakout performance. They’ll look to give fans a show against the Warriors.

The Golden State Warriors are eighth in the Western standings, most recently beating the Orlando Magic 120-97. They’ve split their last 10 games at 5-5, but ride a two-game winning streak heading into another Christmas Day matchup as the betting favorites at home.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds

Dallas Mavericks: +8.5 (-115)

Golden State Warriors: -8.5 (-105)

Over: 229.5 (-110)

Under: 229.5 (-110)

Mavericks vs. Warriors Key Injuries 

Dallas: Max Christie, Probable (illness) / Brandon Williams, Probable (ankle) / Dwight Powell, Probable (illness) / Klay Thompson, Probable (knee) / PJ Washington, Questionable (midfoot) / Kyrie Irving, OUT (knee)

Golden State: Al Horford, Probable (sciatic) / LJ Cryer, OUT (back) / Seth Curry, OUT (glute)

Mavericks vs. Warriors Betting Trends

• The Golden State Warriors are 9-4 at home. The Dallas Mavericks are 3-9 on the road.
• The Warriors are 14-16 ATS overall, 7-6 ATS at home. The Mavericks are 16-15 ATS overall, 6-5 ATS on the road.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Keys to Mavericks vs. Warriors Matchup

The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors will meet for the first time this season, immediately following the best performance we’ve seen out of the Mavericks all season. Rookie Cooper Flagg was sensational against the Denver Nuggets, posting a game-high 33 points on 14-21 shooting and drawing the highest of praise from fellow big man Nikola Jokic. At this rate, Flagg will run away with ‘Rookie of the Year’ honors and may even single-handedly win some games for his team with similar performances.

Aside from Flagg, however, there isn’t much to write home about when it comes to this Dallas offense as they rank in the NBA’s bottom-third in points per game (113.6). The Warriors are only right above them (114.2 PPG) in the rankings, so we could actually be in for another close matchup despite the wide betting odds.

Stephen Curry has been leading the Warriors in scoring (28.7 PPG) and has done so over their last two games, both resulting in wins. He’s played in 11 Christmas Day games, averaging 17.6 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 4.3 RPG throughout his career and giving fans some memorable performances. Curry’s three-point percentage is just around 39.8%, slightly under his career mark of 42.3%. Despite all this, however, we can still expect Curry to shoot the ball at will while Jimmy Butler handles some of the facilitating duties.

Warriors’ Quinten Post has also been impactful in filling Al Horford’s shoes, posting 10 or more rebounds in two of his last three games. His matchup against Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis in the low post will be an interesting one, but the success from the Warriors’ defense comes from a team effort. If the Warriors are able to put recent drama behind them and play a disciplined game on defense, they should do enough to silence Cooper Flagg and come away with a convincing win.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

With this being the first meeting between these two teams, we’ll particularly be keeping an eye out on the matchup between NBA veteran Draymond Green and rookie Cooper Flagg. Green has been known to get under the skin of talented players in the past, so this will truly be a litmus test in the maturation process for Cooper Flagg. Given his poise against a player of Nikola Jokic’s caliber during their last game, we’re confident that Flagg will come away from his first NBA Christmas with a great performance.

However, the Golden State Warriors have been clicking as of late and they’re the much deeper team in terms of their scoring ability on the bench along with their ball movement and defense. They’re simply more cohesive when it comes to moving the ball around and as long as they’re able to contain Flagg and Davis, they should have a significant edge in this game.

For our final prediction, we’re going to roll with the Golden State Warriors to win and cover the spread. While I see this being a close game for much of the first few quarters, eventually the Warriors pull away thanks to a few deep makes from Steph Curry.

Final Mavericks-Warriors NBA Christmas Day Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors -8.5 (-105); OVER 229.5 (-110)

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