Lions vs. Vikings bold predictions for Week 17 Christmas Day game

The Lions and the Vikings were two of the best teams in the NFL last year during the regular season. They are two of the most disappointing teams in the league this season.

Despite winning their last three games, the Vikings (7-8) have been mired in last place in the NFC North. The Lions (8-7) still have an outside chance at gaining a playoff spot, but they are on life support. They need to win their last two games against the Vikings and Chicago Bears, while the Green Bay Packers must lose their last 2 games against the Baltimore Ravens and Vikings.

That’s the dream scenario for Dan Campbell and the Lions. The more realistic situation is that they are going to Minnesota with the hope of staying out of last place in the division. The two teams will exchange places if the Vikings win this matchup and sweep the season series from the Lions.

Vikings QB JJ McCarthy is injured again, Jefferson will be limited

The Vikings have a chance to end the season on a 5-game winning streak if they can beat the Lions and Packers. That might give them some momentum heading to the offseason and give general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell some answers, but quarterback J.J. McCarthy has an injured right hand and may not be able to play.

The quarterback has already had 3 significant injuries since being drafted in 2024 and this could be the 4th. He had to come out of the 16-13 victory over the Giants in Week 16 and he did not practice Monday. If he can’t play, free-agent rookie Max Brosmer will get his second start, and that can’t be good news for skill-position players like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson and RB Aaron Jones.

Jefferson was ranked as the No. 1 receiver in the league before the start of the season, but the Vikings struggles at the QB position have shunted him down the list. Jefferson has caught 72 passes for 917 yards and 2 TDs this season and he will almost certainly go past the 1,000-yard mark, but that’s not good enough for a player of his ability.

If the Vikings have to go to Brosmer, big passing plays are likely to be scarce. That clearly impacts Jefferson and Addison, and the Lions defense will focus on slowing down running back Aaron Jones. He has missed 4 games this season, but Jordan Mason has an ankle injury and could miss his first game of the season.

If the Vikings are going to win this game with an injured McCarthy or a limited Brosmer at quarterback, the defense will have to step up.

Lions’ Jared Goff should throw for 225-plus yards and 2 TDs

The Lions were a team that hit opponents with a devastating offense at various points this season, but they have had a difficult time sustaining their success.

Quarterback Jared Goff gives them a huge advantage in this game because he is one of the most accurate passers in the game. He still has a great rapport with Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) and Jameson Williams, but the Lions offense has suffered without tight end Sam LaPorta.

The Lions have done better than most opponents when facing Brian Flores’ defense with the Vikings, and St. Brown’s aggressiveness is a big reason why. He leads the Lions with 98 receptions for 1,194 yards and 11 touchdowns. He is a dependable receiver who can make big plays on a consistent basis and he is likely the key to the Lions offense in this game if his knee injury does not slow him down.

The Lions rank 3rd in total offense as they are averaging 378.7 yards per game and they are second with 30.1 points per outing this year. While those numbers are encouraging, Campbell’s tendency to go for it on 4th down is no longer a positive for the Lions. He will avoid field goal attempts and punts on 4th-and-short, and that strategy has not worked as well this year as it did last season. The Lions have been successful on 15 of 29 4th-down tries after making 22 of 33 last year.

Vikings defense will limit Lions running game, and keep game close

The Viking have allowed 13 points per game in the last 3 weeks, and the defense has performed well for O’Connell and Flores. However, the Lions are much more challenging than the Commanders, Cowboys or Giants.

Blake Cashman leads the Vikings with 120 tackles, while linebacker Eric Wilson has a team-leading 6.5 sacks. While that is not a robust number, Jalen Redmond (6.0 sacks), Andrew Van Ginkel (5.5 sacks) and Dallas Turner (5.5 sacks) can all get to the quarterback and slow down the Lions offense.

Look for the Vikings to stay close, but Minnesota’s limitations with an injured McCarthy or Brosmer at quarterback will give the Lions an opportunity for a road victory.

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