Illinois basketball’s evolution shows how to build a contender in the modern era

EVANSTON — Who does Illinois men’s basketball go to when they need a bucket? On Wednesday at Northwestern, the Illini brandished a complete assortment of weapons even on a night when it didn’t have the full arsenal at its disposal.

With under 10 minutes left in regulation, it was Keaton Wagler, perhaps the most surprising freshman in the country, who delivered a step-back dagger from three-point range with his signature long, slow, and controlled strides. As the Wildcats chipped into the lead over the next five minutes to trim their deficit to four points, Kylan Boswell stepped up with a herky-jerky lefty drive from the right wing before changing hands to finish the layup. When Illinois needed a final blow late, it was 7’1 giant Tomislav Ivisic ripping a pair of pick-and-pop threes set up by Wagler to ice the win.

“Tough day,” Illini coach Brad Underwood said in his opening statement, not usually something you hear from a coach after a 79-68 victory over an in-state conference rival. Underwood explained how his team was without forward David Mirkovic for the last few days as he battled the flu, and even had to get him an IV just before the game. Wagler was fighting back spasms that slowed him down in the first half. Junior wing Andrej Stojakovic had an off night with only four points, while Zvonimir Ivisic played just 14 minutes after picking up two early fouls and never really seemed to find a rhythm.

The reality for Illinois is that it has so much firepower that it can withstand illness, injuries, and off-nights and still look like one of the most explosive teams in the country. The Illini scored 1.33 points per possession in the win, a massive number that equates to a 133 offensive rating. What would be a season-best day for most offenses is just par for the course for the 2025-26 Illini, who boast a 128 offensive rating on the year, which ranks No. 3 in DI.

Illinois already ranks as a top-5 team in both KenPom and BartTorvik right now even before it starts firing on all cylinders. Just imagine what could happen if this team gets all of its talented pieces clicking at the same time.

Underwood arrived at Illinois as a coach who built his reputation on havoc-style defense. His journey in Champaign to this point shows a full evolution of on-court style and creative recruiting solutions that suddenly feels like a prerequisite for any coach who hopes to have staying power in this era of college hoops.

After a heartbreaking round of 32 loss to Loyola-Chicago in the 2021 tournament with a team led by Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, Underwood decided he needed to move away from plodding bigs and get more spacing at the five while also utilizing the transfer portal. He built an Elite Eight team led by Terrence Shannon Jr., Coleman Hawkins, and Marcus Domask, but it got steamrolled by eventual champ UConn on the doorstep of the Final Four. Underwood knew he needed more NBA talent, so he brought in a pair of one-and-done first-round picks in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley the next year. When that team lost in the Sweet 16 to Kentucky, Underwood pivoted to threading the needle on landing pro talent with more experience.

The result is this year’s roster that looks far more like a European pro team than a typical college team. Underwood went to the Balkans to pull out four players who were professionals in Europe before being enticed by all the NIL money that’s flowing through college basketball right now.

Illinois’ embarrassment of riches starts with the Ivisic twins. Every team at every level of basketball would love to play five-out right now, but few have even one 7-footer who can stretch the floor from three. The Illini have two from the same family. Tomislav starred for SC Derby in Montenegro before Illinois convinced him to come over a year ago, and then retained him after the NBA and other programs honed in on a 7’1 big who hit 35.7 percent of more than 150 attempts from three. His experience at Illinois was so good that he convinced his brother Zvonimir to leave John Calipari to join him. Zvonimir is an even more intimidating rim protector and rebounder with a massive 14.3 percent block rate this season that ranks No. 3 in America, but he can also rip it from deep.

Mirkovic was putting up big numbers in the Adriatic League last year as a 6’9, 250-pound four man. He certainly does not look like a typical freshman as a high-motor 20-year-old who can bang down low and comfortably step out to three-point range. Guard Mihailo Petrovic was an even bigger Serbian star at KK Mega Basket last year, and many people thought he’d be Illinois’ leading man during training camp. Instead, he’s barely played as he battled hamstring issue preseason and has yet to really break into the rotation.

Andrej Stojakovic would have been the biggest offseason addition for most programs. The son of Peja Stojakovic picked Illinois over North Carolina and Stanford for his junior year of college ball, and has been a power slasher and dynamic transition threat who can take over a game when he gets going offensively. Illinois just doesn’t need Stojakovic every night because they have so many other weapons.

Wagler is the biggest surprise, and at this point, he looks both like Illinois’ best player and a possible NBA lottery pick. Wagler was only ranked No. 150 in the recruiting rankings coming out of Kansas City partially due to his lack of athletic explosiveness. As scouts over-indexed on his run-and-jump ability, they missed a long 6’6 guard who can play on- or off-the-ball with pull-up shooting, advanced footwork on drives, and a keen understanding of how to set up a pick-and-roll.

There’s one more holdover who can’t go overlooked, and that’s Boswell. A Champaign native, Boswell played a big role for the Arizona Wildcats as a 17-year-old freshman when he started his college career. Now a senior, the 6’2 guard is in his second year at Illinois as the ultimate glue guy who is a defensive pest, a smart decision-maker, and a capable floor spacer.

“All caps problem solver,” Underwood said on Boswell after the win over Northwestern. “We put him on Cooper Flagg last year, and he did a really good job. To have a player that strong, that athletic, that committed … “It’s just nice to have a guy that versatile.”

The Illini have so much size, shooting, and now ball-handling with Wagler’s breakout that they force opponents to pick their poison every night. At the same time, it feels like this team is just getting started. Tomislav Ivisic had to get back his conditioning after getting his tonsils out and then coming down with strep throat early in the season. When I saw Illinois lose a close one to Alabama at the United Center in Nov., Wagler looked like a connective wing who needed to hit shots to impact the game. Ever since, he’s essentially been Illinois’ point guard who can roast bigs on switches with his step-back and slow-roll his way to the rim for crafty finishes. Coming into the night, Wagler was top-10 in the country in RAPM, an advanced metric that estimates a player’s impact per 100 possessions based on teammates, opponents, and game context. Illinois’ offense has been 13 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor.

These kind of breakouts just don’t happen every year. With Wagler turning into a true stud, Illinois has the horses to match any team in America.

Illinois still looks like a team that’s figuring things out, and maybe it has to be that way in today’s landscape of college basketball. These players were scattered all over the world last year, and now they’re learning how to complement each other on the fly in a season where anything less than a Final Four berth will be considered a disappointment.

The Illini’s offense is punishing with shooting everywhere and some dominant forces on the offensive glass. The defense very much remains a work in progress, ranking only No. 80 in DI right now. Getting the Ivisic twins up to speed over the next two months should help as Underwood plays with the idea of double-barrel rim protection, but Wagler can die on screens, Mirkovic doesn’t have a ton of lateral quickness, and Stojakovic typically looks more concerned with hunting his next transition opportunity than getting stops. Illinois is just about the worst team in America at forcing takeways on defense, ranking No. 360 in defensive turnover percentage, which only ranks ahead of Creighton and South Dakota in all of DI. It’s hard to get out on the break when you can’t get steals or deflections, and that means Illinois has to maximize every ounce of its halfcourt offense.

Usually a team this bad defensively can’t go on a real March Madness run, but with Illinois it feels possible. The offense is just that elite, and the defense at least has the size to play with anyone. Going through the Big Ten gauntlet will make Illinois battle-tested for March, but of course anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament.

All those years of Illinois basketball being criticized for not making recruiting inroads with Chicago Public Schools feels comical in hindsight when they’re now landing 20-something pros out of Europe. This is what college basketball looks like in 2026, and Illinois has adjusted to it as well as any program.

It truly feels like Underwood will stop at nothing to bring Illinois a national championship. If this team falls short, expect his next move to once again be on the sport’s cutting edge.