Heat vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, pick – 12/3/2025

The 14-7 Miami Heat enter their matchup against the Dallas Mavericks with one notable concern, as Norman Powell is listed questionable with an ankle injury after scoring 30 points in the team’s most recent win over the Los Angeles Clippers.

However, being shorthanded has been the norm for the Dallas Mavericks the entire season thus far, with P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II all questionable with ankle-related issues. Kyrie Irving and Dante Exum remain out with knee injuries, which means the Mavs will once again rely on the brilliance of Cooper Flagg, along with his ball-handling.

They come into this game with two wins on the trot. DraftKings has stipulated an over/under of 239.5, with the Heat being seen firmly as the favorites.

Heat vs. Mavericks Odds

Miami Heat: -4 (-112)
Dallas Mavericks: +4 (-109)
Over: 239.5 (-110)
Under: 239.5 (-110)

Heat vs. Mavericks Betting Trends

Miami has been favored nine times this season and has won seven of those games. The Heat are 13-9 against the spread overall and 4-4 ATS when favored by at least four points. 

Dallas has struggled in the early season, winning just four of 15 games as underdogs. However, the Mavericks are 6-4 ATS when catching four or more points. Their recent form has shown improvement, winning two straight and covering in five of their last 10 games.

Miami won the only previous meeting this season, a 106–102 decision on November 24.

Keys to Heat vs. Mavericks Matchup

The Heat enter Wednesday with one of the league’s most efficient and high-volume offenses. They rank second in scoring at 124.3 points per game and lead the NBA in possessions and field goal attempts per contest. 

Their recent performance against the Clippers highlighted their offensive versatility, tying a franchise record with 24 made three-pointers. Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Davion Mitchell have formed a balanced scoring core, and Mitchell’s 7.8 assists per game have accelerated Miami’s pace and spacing.

Defensively, Miami remains vulnerable, allowing 118.4 points per game. Dallas continues to rely on Cooper Flagg. His 35-point performance against the Clippers and subsequent Rookie of the Month recognition reflect his early impact. 

Heat vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Miami’s offensive firepower and recent form provide a clear advantage entering the matchup. The Heat are performing at a high level even as Dallas continues to search for offensive consistency. We expect it to be a high-scoring affair with the Heat eventually being able to take the game away from a faltering Dallas defense.

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