Final 4 teams ranked by men’s March Madness national championship chances

The 2026 men’s Final Four looked like it was mostly going chalk before one of the greatest shots in March Madness history changed the feeling of the national semifinals.

Braylon Mullins’ 35-foot buzzer-beater lifted UConn over Duke after the Huskies spent the entire game trailing, and anyone who watched it is still catching their breath. There had never been consecutive years featuring three or more No. 1 seeds in the men’s Final Four, and that streak extends with the Blue Devils’ stunning loss. So much for my Sweet 16/Elite Eight predictions looking mostly accurate. What’s left is two teams who should feel happy just to be here, and two other teams who entered the tournament knowing they would be disappointed with anything less than a national championship.

UConn, Illinois, Arizona, and Michigan are the last four teams standing in the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. Let’s rank by all four by their national championship chances.

4. UConn Huskies

When a team wins a game the way UConn beat Duke on Sunday evening, it’s only reasonable to believe they’re capable of going all the way. Are the Huskies a team of destiny? Are they supported by a higher power? What we know for sure is that UConn has the best coaching staff in America, led by Danny Hurley with the country’s sharpest assistant in future Boston College head coach Luke Murray, who hopefully isn’t too distracted from his current duties right now. The Huskies can create good looks, but those looks don’t always go in. They started 1-of-18 from three in the Elite Eight against Duke, and somehow hit 4-of-5 from deep to end the game, including Mullins’ iconic buzzer-beater. UConn only ranks No. 144 in three-point percentage and No. 162 in three-point rate (percentage of field goal attempts from three) this year, and they’ve actually been winning with defense. Hurley’s top-10 defense will have to prove itself against an Illinois team with tons of firepower. UConn will have to shut off the paint and hope the Illini have a cold shooting night. It will have to feed Tarris Reed down low and hope his strength can win out over the length of Illinois’ Ivisic twins. It will need to lean on Alex Karaban’s big game experience, as the senior forward competes in his third Final Four in four years with the Huskies. Duke was so dominant all year — only three losses by a combined five points! — and UConn beat them with better coaching and better execution down the stretch. This team is capable of keeping it going with two more wins for Hurley’s third ring. It’s just going to require two more upsets.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini

I’ve seen the Illini three times in person this year: in Nov. against Alabama, at Northwestern in Jan., and then in their Big Ten tournament loss to Wisconsin in the middle of March. It’s wild to see how much the team has changed from the start of the season until now. The first time I watched the Illini live, Keaton Wagler was playing on the wing and struggling against Bama’s pace-and-space approach. I compared him to Cam Christie at the time — which felt like decently high-praise for the No. 150 recruit in the class who barely had any high-major interest out of high school. A couple months later, Wagler was hitting stepback daggers against the Wildcats and hanging 46 points on Purdue after becoming the team’s point guard. At that point, he looked like a lottery pick who was drawing comparisons to Jamal Murray and Tyrese Haliburton. By the end of the season, almost no one in the mainstream discourse is doubting Wagler’s credentials as a top-10, maybe even a top-5 pick, in June’s NBA draft. As his rise has unfurled, it has put significantly more pressure on Illinois to make this season count.

I wrote that “anything less than a Final Four berth will be considered a disappointment,” for Illinois during my deep-dive in January. There was even some pushback from their fanbase for that line at the time. The reality is the computers have loved the Illini all year, seeing them as an easy top-6-or-7 team in the country entering March Madness. They got a great draw in the bracket to be paired with the weakest No. 1 seed in Florida, who they never had to play. The Sweet 16 win over Houston answered all the questions people had about their front court toughness. Outlasting Iowa in the Elite Eight shows Brad Underwood’s high-level in-game coaching as well as the abundance of talent at his disposal. The name of the game in modern basketball is skilled size, and Illinois has it. Wagler’s rise from a three-star recruit to an instant impact superstar is the type of impossible outcome that you have to capitalize on. Illinois should be happy to be here after making its first Final Four since 2005, but they’re also good enough to extend this run to Monday night. At that point, anything can happen.

2. Arizona Wildcats

It was shocking to see Purdue get a seven-point lead on Arizona in the first half of their Elite Eight matchup, because it feels like the Wildcats have barely trailed the whole year. Arizona’s big second half surge to secure a 15-point win and a Final Four berth was less surprising: this is what they do, run over teams with a rare mix of size, strength, and athleticism. The Final Four game against Michigan truly feels like a toss up: these are the two most complete teams in the country, and the only bummer is that we’re getting it on Saturday instead of Monday night. The only thing that’s been holding me back on crowning Arizona the overall favorite the entire year has been the fact that they’re almost the lowest volume three-point shooting team in America. There’s 365 DI teams, and Arizona ranks No. 362 in three-point rate. Obviously that hasn’t mattered as they’ve bludgeoned their opponents inside and in transition all year, but it could be a problem against Michigan — which is the first time they will see a frontcourt better than their’s. The Wildcats certainly have an advantage in the backcourt. Jaden Bradley has been nails in his senior season, and Brayden Burries looks like the best player on the team on some nights. Arizona knows exactly how it wants to play, and it has proven that it’s a winning formula. I really think Arizona vs. Michigan has the potential to be an all-time great college game in terms of the level of play. I give a slight, slight edge to the Wolverines, but I don’t feel great about it.

1. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan’s 33-point beatdown of Tennessee in the Elite Eight showed why this team was being mentioned in all-time great conversations earlier in the season. The Wolverines’ defense is No. 1 in the country with a 7’3 Spanish giant patrolling the paint in Aday Mara, a jacked 6’9 forward who can defend all five positions at the college level in Morez Johnson, and a two-way superstar in Yaxel Lendeborg filling in all the cracks without ever forcing it. The offense ranks top-5 in the country by pounding the paint with intricate high-low sets, timely cutters, and overpowering finishers. The Wolverines have made 61.2 percent of their two-pointers on the season, the second-best mark in all of DI. The guard play can get a little erratic at times, and in many ways it feels like Elliot Cadeau will make-or-break Michigan’s season. If Cadeau is steady in avoiding live-ball turnovers and making his spot-up threes, Michigan is a wagon. They haven’t seen anything like Arizona this year, and it’s totally possible star 7’2 center Motiejus Krivas can neutralize the advantages Michigan enjoys over every other team. Mara will need to play with a mean streak and show he has real scoring touch for Michigan to win on Saturday. Lendeborg will have to be the best player on the floor. This is the ultimate slugfest between two college giants, and these teams feel evenly matched. I just feel like Michigan’s best game can edge out Arizona’s best game if they both turn it in. Let’s hope we see it.