F1 Drivers’ Championship scenarios for Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri

Now that we have caught our collective breath …

We can look ahead to the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen’s win in the Qatar Grand Prix (aided by a strategic blunder from McLaren when they decided not to pit Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris under a Safety Car on Lap 7) kept the Red Bull driver’s hopes of a fifth Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship alive. Now the grid heads to the season finale with Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri all still alive in the chase for the Drivers’ Championship.

But what does each driver need to do at Yas Marina to take home the hardware?

Let’s answer that question.

First, we will look at the current state of play among the three title contenders, and then we will examine what each would need to secure a title in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

What are the current F1 standings?

Here is the current state of play among the three title contenders:

Norris heads to Abu Dhabi not only with a points advantage — he leads Verstappen by 12 points and Piastri by 16 — but also an advantage with his eight second-place finishes. This might seem like a minor point, but ties are broken first by the number of Grand Prix wins first, then by the number of P2 results, and down through the results until a winner is determined.

Therefore, in the unlikely scenario Norris finishes tied with either Verstappen or Piastri, and neither driver won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Norris would win the title based on his second-place finishes this season as he has clinched that tiebreaker.

How Lando Norris wins F1 title

Here is a look at how Norris can secure his first F1 Drivers’ Championship:

Not only does Norris head to Yas Marina with an advantage, he is also the only driver of the three who controls his own destiny. If Norris finishes on the podium in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he is guaranteed a title, regardless of where Verstappen and Piastri finish.

His current lead in the standings even means that if he finishes outside the points, he can still win the title if Verstappen finishes no better than fourth, and Piastri finishes no better than third. For example, if Norris finishes outside the points, Verstappen finishes fourth, and Piastri finishes third, then Norris and Verstappen would finish the 2025 F1 season level on 408 points, with Piastri just one point behind at 407.

Both Norris and Verstappen would have 7 Grand Prix wins, meaning the title would be decided by Norris’ eight second-place finishes.

How Max Verstappen wins F1 title

Now let’s work through the ways Verstappen can finish off one of F1’s greatest comebacks, and secure his fifth Drivers’ Championship:

At the outset, Verstappen faces a narrower path to his fifth F1 Drivers’ Championship.

The Red Bull driver needs to finish on the podium to have any chance at securing a title. If, for example, he finishes fourth then he would pull level with Norris on points, and as we outlined above in a world where Norris and Verstappen finished tied — and Verstappen has not won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix — then Norris finishes ahead of Verstappen based on second-place finishes.

If Verstappen does finish on the podium, he would still need some help. With a win at Yas Marina, Verstappen would clinch the title if Norris finishes fourth, or worse. A win would move Verstappen to 421 points on the season, and a fourth-place finish from Norris would see the McLaren driver finish with 420 points, just a single point behind Verstappen.

In this scenario, even if Piastri finishes second, he would remain behind Verstappen, as a P2 in Abu Dhabi would move the Australian driver to 410 points.

The path narrows more if Verstappen finishes second or third. With a P2 finish, Verstappen would need Norris to finish eighth or worse, and a P2 also brings Piastri into play, as Verstappen would also need Piastri to finish second or worse. And if Verstappen finishes third, he would need Norris to finish no better than ninth, while also seeing Piastri finish second or worse.

It has been rare this season for McLaren to deliver the kind of bad weekends that Verstappen would need to claim the title, even with a win. For example, only five times this year did Norris finish fourth or worse: Saudi Arabia (P4), Canada (P18), Netherlands (P18), Azerbaijan (P7), Las Vegas (DQ), and Qatar (P4).

How Oscar Piastri wins F1 title

Piastri faces the toughest road to the Drivers’ Championship, but he does have a path to the title:

At the outset, Piastri needs to finish first or second at Yas Marina to keep his title hopes alive. If he crosses the line in P3, he would add 15 points to his account and finish the season with 407 points.

One point shy of where Norris currently stands.

Even if he finishes first or second, Piastri would need some help to claim the title. If he wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Piastri would finish the year with 417 points. That would eliminate Verstappen from title contention as outlined above (with a P2 finish Verstappen would end up with 414 points), but Norris would need to pick up just a P5 result to get the points he would need to climb above Piastri.

If Piastri finishes second, both Norris and Verstappen would have a chance to claim the title. Norris would win the title if he finishes ninth or better (and Verstappen finishes fourth or worse), while Verstappen would win the title if he finishes third, and Norris finishes ninth or worse.

So, those are the potential title scenarios for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Now we wait to see what actually happens.