England’s nightmare path to World Cup 2026 final revealed in quest to end 60-year trophy drought

Dec 5, 2025 - 21:00
England’s nightmare path to World Cup 2026 final revealed in quest to end 60-year trophy drought

England face a potential nightmare route to the 2026 World Cup final in North America next summer.

The Three Lions discovered their group stage opponents during the draw in Washington DC on Friday.

Head coach Thomas Tuchel of England looks on prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Albania and England at Air Albania Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Tirana, Albania. Getty
Thomas Tuchel and England could face a nightmare path to the World Cup final[/caption]
US Draw assistant Tom Brady shows the card reading England during the draw for the 2026 FIFA Football World Cup taking place in the US, Canada and Mexico, at the Kennedy Center, in Washington, DC, on December 5, 2025.
The Three Lions were handed a favourable World Cup draw
AFP

Thomas Tuchel‘s side also learned their possible path to the final during the knockout stages.

The likes of Brazil and France could lie in wait before the showpiece clash if all three teams top their groups.

England were drawn into Group L during the draw ceremony alongside Croatia, Panama and Ghana.

They will begin their campaign against the former in a rematch of their 2018 semi-final on June 17.

Winning Group L will see the Three Lions advance to the bottom half of the knockout stage bracket.

A tie against one of the best third-placed teams would then await Tuchel & Co.

From the 12 groups, the eight third-placed teams with the best record from the group stages will reach the knockout stage.

Of those, England will face the third-ranked team from either Group E, H, I, J or K.

The possible worst-case scenario would be a meeting with Norway, who were the highest-ranked FIFA nation in pot three.

They have been drawn into Group I alongside France and Senegal for their first World Cup since 1998.

Harry Kane of England reacts after missing a penalty during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 quarter final match between England and France at Al Bayt Stadium on December 10, 2022 in Al Khor, Qatar. Getty
A potential semi-final rematch with France could await the Three Lions next summer[/caption]

Norway are unbeaten in their last three competitive meetings against England, winning two of those.

The two sides previously met in qualifying for both the 1982 and 1994 World Cups, but are yet to meet at a major tournament.

Alternatively, however, potential opponents in the last 32 also include debutants Curacao, Cape Verde, Jordan and Uzbekistan.

Beyond the second round, England could face the winner of Group A in the round of 16.

This could be tournament co-hosts Mexico, who will face South Africa and South Korea in the group stage.

Group A is completed by the winner of UEFA path D, consisting of Denmark, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland and North Macedonia.

Endrick of Brazil celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the international friendly match between England and Brazil at Wembley Stadium on March 23, 2024 in London, England.Getty
Brazil have been drawn in the same quarter as England after beating the Three Lions last year[/caption]

England's World Cup record

1930-38: Not a FIFA member

1950: Group stage

1954: Quarter-finals

1958: Group stage

1962: Quarter-finals

1966: Winners

1970: Quarter-finals

1974: Failed to qualify

1978: Failed to qualify

1982: Second group stage

1986: Quarter-finals

1990: Semi-finals – fourth place

1994: Failed to qualify

1998: Round of 16

2002: Quarter-finals

2006: Quarter-finals

2010: Round of 16

2014: Group stage

2018: Semi-finals – fourth place

2022: Quarter-finals

In another blow to Tuchel, their last-16 tie would be in Mexico City, with El Tri potentially having the chance to make their first quarter-final for 40 years on home soil.

Beyond the last-16, England would be in the same side of the draw as Brazil if both sides win their respective groups.

It means the two teams would meet in the quarter-finals if they were to reach that stage.

The five-time World Cup winners have an impressive record against the Three Lions, losing just four of their 27 meetings.

Meanwhile, England have failed to beat Brazil in four matches at the World Cup, including at the quarter-final stage back in 2002.

If they can buck that trend in Miami on July 11, a reunion with France could follow in the semi-finals.

Lionel Messi of Argentina lifts the trophy after winning while sitting on the shoulders of a teammate after the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Final match between Argentina and France at Lusail Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Lusail City, Qatar.Getty
England will avoid defending champions Argentina until the final if they both win their groups[/caption]

The two sides cannot face before the last four if they both win their groups after being seeded by FIFA for the group stage draw.

France knocked England out in the quarter-finals in Qatar three years ago – winning 2-1 in a match that saw Harry Kane miss a penalty.

The 2018 winners have been tipped as the tournament favourites ahead of England by former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger.

Asked if Tuchel’s side are the favourites for the World Cup, he said: “In my opinion, (England) will be one of the favourites of the World Cup.

“They are always nearly there to win it. The semi-final, quarter-final, final. And they have to make the next step. They have the quality to do it.

“I still believe in Europe, personally, by trying to be as objective as possible, that France is the super favourite, just for one reason.

Cole Palmer looks on after England lost to Spain in the Euro 2024 final
England may have to exact revenge on Spain in the final – two years after their Euro 2024 woe
Getty

England's path to the 2026 World Cup final

Possible route to final as group winners

June 17: Croatia – Group stage

June 23: Ghana – Group stage

June 27: Panama – Group stage

July 1: Norway – Round of 32

July 5: Mexico – Round of 16

July 11: Brazil – Quarter-final

July 15: France – Semi-final

July 19: Spain or Argentina – Final

“It’s the country that has more world-class strikers than any other country in the world.

“And by having four knockout stage (matches), to have such a bench and such a quality on the bench, will make a difference.”

Spain and Argentina made up the four seeded teams, with the Three Lions avoiding both sides until the final if they all top their groups.

The latter are the defending champions after beating France on penalties in the 2022 final.

Meanwhile, Spain currently sit top of the FIFA World Rankings having broken English hearts in the final of Euro 2024 last summer.

Argentina have failed to beat England in their last three meetings, including in the group stages of the 2002 World Cup.

World Cup 2026 Winner Odds

Odds courtesy of talkSPORT BET

  • Spain – 4/1
  • England – 6/1
  • France – 7/1
  • Brazil – 7/1
  • Argentina – 8/1
  • Portugal – 12/1
  • Germany – 14/1
  • Netherlands – 20/1

See full World Cup 2026 winner odds at talkSPORT BET

If you’re planning on having a bet on the tournament, make sure to check out our full World Cup 2026 betting preview for all the latest odds, boost and tips.

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However, the three-time winners did knock the Three Lions out of both the 1986 and 1998 finals.

As for Spain, they have not lost in two previous World Cup meetings against England, who have won just one of their last five clashes.

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