‘Cupcakes moving forward’ – Kirk Herbstreit’s ominous softer schedule warning as Texas walk CFP tightrope

The College Football Playoffs are just a couple of weeks away.

Every year, the College Football Playoffs (CFP) selection committee come together to choose and determine the seeding of the teams that will be competing.

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But with that responsibility comes challenges, as they have to decide which of the teams that are on the cusp, get a spot in the shoot out to be crowned national champions.

This year, that team is the Texas Longhorns, who finished the season with a 9-3 record that was only good enough for fifth place in the final SEC standings.

Spearheaded by quarterback Arch Manning – nephew of NFL icons and Hall of Famers Peyton and Eli – the Longhorns entered the 2025 campaign with a host of hype behind them.

However, they fell to reigning champions Ohio State – and the current No. 1 team in the country in their season opener, and suffered a 29-13 defeat to Florida just four weeks later.

Wins against ranked teams Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M – with their celebrations of the latter in the final week of the regular season causing a stir – saw them stack up quite a resumé.

Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian pleaded his case to the CFP committee but in the CFP’s penultimate 2025 rankings, Texas – despite having one of the most demanding out-of-conference schedules – find themselves on the outside looking in, holding the 13th spot.

Even Ole Miss – who have lost head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU – found themselves moving up a spot into sixth in the wake of his departure.

Texas’ out-of-conference schedule may save them

With the possibility that Texas may get left out, former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky believes that this will see SEC teams schedule softer out-of-conference games.

“If Texas is left out of the top 12, I think what you’ll see is teams specifically from the SEC no longer scheduling challenging out-of-conference games early in the season, a lot like we saw Texas going to Ohio State this year,” Orlovsky said in a video posted to X.

“Texas has accomplished a lot this year, whether you think they’re one of the 12 best teams or deserved, or earned, or all those phrases. I think they’re the only team that at the time when they played, the opponent has three wins against top 10 teams.

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“They’re the only team, I think right now, that has presently ranked two wins against top 10 teams. They’re the only team that has three wins against top 15 teams. And I think the first team since 2019, LSU, that has three wins against the top 10.

“But there’s three losses in there. So if they are left out, I do think because of that week one on the road win against Ohio State and non-conference power.

“Teams from the SEC, specifically because they’re obviously one of the, if not the best, conferences in football, teams will sit there and go, ‘We’re not going to schedule challenging out-of-conference early-season games because there’s no need to, because if we lose, we’ll get penalized more than the benefit of winning.’”

A similar sentiment was echoed by College GameDay’s Kirk Herbstreit in light of Alabama announcing that they were making changes to their non-conference schedule.

“Get ready to see this happen all over the sport,” Herbstreit posted to X. “If it’s only about how many wins ya have and not who you’re playing and where you’re playing, you’re gonna see every AD make these same moves.

“Kiss meaningful non-conference games in late August and early September goodbye. Cupcakes moving forward till teams get to conference play.”

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Fan reaction to the debate of whether the Longhorns should reach the CFP has been mixed.

On one hand, some believe that Texas deserve their place due to the wins they did muster.

“Texas has the most wins over projected playoff teams of ANY SCHOOL IN THE COUNTRY. Texas has the most wins over Top 14 teams of ANY SCHOOL IN THE COUNTRY. THE TEXAS LONGHORNS SHOULD BE IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF!,” one fan posted to X.

“If the 9-3 Texas Longhorns miss the playoff after scheduling real competition like Ohio State, the reigning National Champions and No. 1 team in the nation, then the CFP is basically telling teams to stop playing tough non-conference games,” a second fan said.

“Texas lost by ONLY 7 points, outgained OSU by 200 yards, and proved they can compete with anyone.”

On the other hand, one fan made the point that, “They went to overtime with Kentucky who fired their coach, a sorry Mississippi state team, got ran off the field by UGA, another L to Florida who also fired their coach, they simply aren’t a top 12 team.”

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