Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa prediction, odds, choose for UFC Mexico

It is time for one more betting prediction and choose for the UFC Mexico Prelims as we flip consideration in the direction of this subsequent bout within the Featherweight (145) Division. Roufusport MMA’s personal Christian Rodriguez will tackle the rising prospect of Melquizael Costa of Brazil. Examine the UFC odds sequence for our Rodriguez-Costa prediction and choose.

Christian Rodriguez (12-2) has gone 5-2 contained in the UFC since debuting in 2022. He strung collectively four-straight wins earlier than falling to Julian Erosa through submission. Nevertheless, he managed to bounce again most lately with a unanimous resolution over Austin Bashi and can look to mount one other successful streak right here. Rodriguez stands 5-foot-7 with a 71.5-inch attain.

Melquizael Costa (22-7) has gone 3-2 contained in the UFC octagon since 2023. He is driving a two-fight successful streak heading into this bout following wins over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Andre Fili most lately. Now, he’ll come within the slight betting underdog seeking to enhance his inventory on an enormous stage. Costa stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch attain.

Listed below are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Mexico Odds: Christian Rodriguez-Melquizael Costa Odds

Christian Rodriguez: -155

Melquizael Costa: +130

Over 2.5 rounds: -195

Beneath 2.5 rounds: +150

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Why Christian Rodriguez Will Win

• Final Combat: (W) Austin Bashi – U DEC
• Final 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Christian Rodriguez comes into this bout following a dominant win over a UFC newcomer in Austin Bashi. Rodriguez has been tasked with preventing debuting fighters on various events and has come out on prime every time. He’ll see a extra skilled fighter than himself in Melquizael Costa, however Rodriguez has the benefit of dealing with the higher UFC competitors up thus far. He is a handful to cope with on the ft and has nice really feel for boxing inside the pocket. He lands over 3.5 important strikes per minute at a 48% accuracy, however his protection can be some extent of emphasis as he is capable of slip punches and counter successfully.

Rodriguez can be a really expert wrestler and has solely been submitted as soon as in his profession, nevertheless it’s evident he will not need to combine issues up on the bottom towards a harmful finisher like Costa. Together with his opponent being the extra energetic grappler, Rodriguez should lean on his 69% takedown protection and maintain this battle standing the place he is most comfy. He is absolutely able to a canine battle and given the aggressive hanging of his opponent, we may see each fighters resort to that by the later rounds.

Why Melquizael Costa Will Win

• Final Combat: (W) Andre Fili – SUB (guillotine choke, R1)
• Final 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB

Melquizael Costa is on a mini sizzling streak with two consecutive submission wins in his final two fights. He is extraordinarily efficient in taking the again of his opponents and instantly chasing submissions when he hits the bottom. His final two opponents weren’t as eager to combine issues up on the bottom, however Costa does an excellent job of breaking down alongside the fence and taking the battle the place he is most comfy. He additionally pushes a frantic tempo on the ft and may be very efficient in forcing his opponents to make errors from there.

Throughout this battle, Melquizael Costa should supply completely different seems and catch his opponent off-guard to have the higher hand. Rodriguez may be very essentially sound and does not usually make many unforced errors, so it will be as much as Costa to power him to turn out to be uncomfortable alongside the fence whereas he threatens takedowns. On the bottom, Costa is the marginally faster fighter and can consistently be chasing a shock submission towards his opponent.

Ultimate Christian Rodriguez-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Choose

This battle has all of the makings of a “Combat of the Evening” candidate as each males are not any strangers to ending the battle. The slight hanging benefit will go to Christian Rodriguez because of his basic boxing and talent to slide punches from within the pocket. Whereas Costa is a little more erratic, he is very intent on throwing his jab out from and controlling opponents at a secure hanging distance.

On the bottom, we have now to offer the benefit to Melquizael Costa because of his submission grappling as he is more likely to twist his opponent right into a compromised spot on the bottom. Nonetheless, it will be very troublesome to convey Rodriguez down behind a 69% takedown protection price and it could take a fast back-take to be able to give Costa the benefit.

Nonetheless, I feel Melquizael Costa has extra methods to win this battle and his chin will not be in a lot hazard given his means to soak up pictures and maintain transferring ahead. If he can power an unpleasant battle that finally hits the bottom, we should always see him take management of this bout along with his means to movement via the jiu jitsu transitions. Let’s roll with the underdog to get the shut win throughout this one.

Ultimate Christian Rodriguez-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Choose: Melquizael Costa (+130)