Chargers’ patchwork offensive line has toughest test yet coming against Texans

The Los Angeles Chargers have dealt with as many injuries as just about anyone so far this season, but they keep winning games. A strong defense under Jesse Minter and some more great quarterback play from Justin Herbert have Los Angeles sitting at 11-4 on the season, already with a playoff berth in hand.

On Saturday, the Chargers will face arguably their toughest test yet as they look to keep pace with the Denver Broncos in the AFC West race. Los Angeles will host the Houston Texans in Week 17 in a clash of two teams that look like they will be in the AFC playoffs in a few weeks.

Of course, this is a rematch of the 2024 AFC Wild Card, when the Texans routed the Chargers 32-12. Houston’s defense picked off Justin Herbert four times in that game, and the quarterback was under siege from the Texans’ talented pass rush throughout the contest.

This season, the Texans’ defense is even better and the Chargers’ offensive line is even worse after losing Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, among others, to season-ending injuries. With massive playoff stakes on the line on Sunday, Herbert and company have their work cut out for them if they want to stay in the division race at the top of the AFC.

How can the Chargers attack the Texans, and can they do enough to get a win on Saturday?

Can Los Angeles hold up in pass protection?

The Chargers have been one of the worst pass-protecting units in football all season long, even before Alt went down with his injury. Since he went down, things have gone downhill even more.

Los Angeles was able to protect Herbert in Week 16 against the Dallas Cowboys, but that was the first time this season that the star signal-caller was not sacked at all in a game.

The season-long numbers still are not pretty. Herbert has been sacked 49 times, the third-highest mark in the league behind just Geno Smith and Cam Ward. In Week 14 against the Eagles, he took a career-high seven sacks and still led the Chargers to a win. His 252 pressures is the most in the NFL by a mile, and his 43.7% pressure rate faced is also the highest among qualified passers by a landslide (Jacoby Brissett is second at 40.2%), according to Next Gen Stats.

It almost doesn’t matter who the Chargers play or what they can do, Herbert is going to have to operate in the face of pressure. That will be no different against a Texans pass rush that features two of the best and most explosive edge players in all of football. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter both rank in the top 10 in the NFL in sacks and have combined for 24.5 on the season. The two stars have combined for an incredible 140 pressures on the season, and Anderson has recorded a pressure on more than 20% of his pass rush snaps.

Herbert has average numbers under pressure this season while facing more of it than anybody, but a lot of that comes down to an average target separation under three yards on pressured dropbacks. When Herbert is feeling the heat, his guys aren’t getting open at a high clip early in the down and he is forced to throw the ball into tight windows.

Chargers have to win first down

The Texans’ pressure and sack numbers as a team won’t blow you away, but they dominate with their pass rush because of how often opponents are forced into obvious passing downs against them. That comes down to how good Houston is on first down, forcing a lot of second- and third-and-longs where Anderson and Hunter can pin their ears back and get after the QB.

In general, most defenses have worse numbers on first down than their overall splits because the entire playbook is open to the offense. That isn’t the case for Houston, which boasts a -0.20 EPA per play allowed on first down according to Next Gen Stats, a number that leads the league by a mile (the Browns are second at -0.12). Against first down passing plays, that number sinks down to -0.24.

This is all really bad news for a Chargers offense that, quite frankly, stinks on first down and relies on Herbert’s late-down wizardry for a lot of its production. Los Angeles ranks 28th in the NFL in EPA per play on first down (-0.10), and it ranks bottom-10 in both the run game and the pass game.

That trend is not encouraging for the Chargers, who will likely have to win first down in this matchup against the Texans in order to protect an offensive line that is beat up and not playing well at the moment. Herbert has proved to be a monster on late downs when the Chargers need him to bail them out, but that will be nearly impossible with these two edge rushers bearing down on him. If he and this offense want a chance to move the ball consistently in this game, they must win on early downs to keep Houston honest.

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