It is officially NASCAR Cup Series Championship weekend! It’s an exciting moment in our sport. Especially if your favorite driver is one of the final four. Some debate whether or not Phoenix should be the deciding race as usual. Others will debate who they don’t want to see win the championship race.
In the meantime, Kaleb and I have made some choices on who we think are solid choices for this weekend’s final race of the season. As usual, we will give you two drivers we think are solid money-winning picks hopefully, and one who we would stay far away from. So, since it’s the last picks piece of the 2024 season let’s get to it!
Chris’s Picks: Ross Chastain(+1700) & Kyle Larson (+750)
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I know Ross isn’t competing for a championship. However, he wasn’t last fall either and went on to win the race. So he knows how to spoil the party in a sense. Plus another reason I like this pick is really simple. He only has one finish outside the top ten in all five starts at Phoenix with Trackhouse Racing. He likes this track or his team at the very least knows how to bring him a fast car. Ross could upset the championship race and win you some decent money in the process.
Another driver who isn’t competing for a championship. However, it’s Kyle Larson. I mean come on? There are only a few drivers who you know each and every weekend should compete for a win and he’s one of them. Plus to stick with the stats line as I have all season. In his last ten Phoenix races. Kyle has one finish outside of the top fifteen and it was due to an engine issue. It won’t be a huge win financially with these odds, but a win is still a win. Plus why not end the betting season for NASCAR on a high note?
Kaleb’s Picks: #12 Ryan Blaney (+350) & #20 Christopher Bell (+450)
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Might be the first time I’ve picked two heavyweight favorites, but we gotta lock in here, folks. I love Ryan Blaney here at Phoenix. Fastest car in practice, the best 10-lap average which indicates he’ll be awesome on the long run. This race might be wrapped up and done for and the championship might just go to Team Penske for the third year in a row, and to the #12 shop for a second straight season. Blaney has a 4.1 average finish here at this track and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since March of 2020. I am the most confident I’ve ever been in a pick.
As for Christopher Bell, he’s never short on motivation. He missed out on the Championship Four thanks to what NASCAR deemed a “wall ride” and stripped away the position that gave him the lead over William Byron. I think there’s a good chance he shows up with a fire under him, and go out to spoil the Championship Race just as Ross Chastain did last year. He led 50 laps and won here in the spring, but unfortunately suffered an accident in the final race of the year last year, but also finished P6 in the spring of 2023. I like Bell enough here to take a gamble on his motivation.
Chris’s Fade: William Byron (+650)
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Finally a championship four driver, but not where some may expect him. Especially considering he’s won at Phoenix as recently as the Spring ’23 race. Which is good, but that was over a year and a half ago now. My problem isn’t so much how Willy B races at Phoenix though. It’s with how he’s raced this season. After his win at Martinsville, he disappeared minus a few top-five finishes here and there along the way to the playoffs. Now he’s been a lot more consistently in the top ten since Kansas. So he could easily finish in the top ten, but I don’t think that alone will be good enough to win a championship this weekend.
Kaleb’s Fade: #45 Tyler Reddick (+325)
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I don’t want to take Tyler Reddick’s incredible move at Homestead away from him by any means. It was a ballsy move, and since it worked out he’s here in the Championship Four. But let’s also be honest. After winning the regular season championship he’s been lackluster. He didn’t post a top 10 from Atlanta to his win in Homestead. That’s six races without a great drive. I’m sorry, I just don’t see the value here. The Team Penske cars will have some serious gas. Hendrick Motorsports and Chevy have been willing to do anything and everything to put the #24 in the best chance to win. Reddick won’t have a ton of allies on the track, and he hasn’t had awesome performances consistently in a long time. I’ll leave this one to bolder folks than I.
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