CFP predictions: The 12 teams that will make the bracket ahead of championship weekend

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the 2025 college football regular season is officially a wrap. We just have this week’s slate of conference championship games to get through before it becomes time to finalize the full 12-team bracket for the College Football Playoff.

Everybody loves predictions, so we’ll take a stab at projecting how the full CFP field will line up following this weekend’s slate of league title games. We’ll game which teams will make the cut and which teams will be spending the postseason prepping for a regular bowl game.

1. Ohio State*
2. Georgia*
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech*
5. Oregon
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Virginia*
11. Miami
12. North Texas*
Bold indicates schools with a first-round byes into the quarterfinals
*Indicates highest-ranked conference champions

Locks

Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, Texas Tech, Oregon, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame are all schools who we can assume are safely in the 12-team bracket regardless of what happens over championship weekend. Ohio State and Indiana are both 12-0 and their clash in the Big Ten Championship Game this Saturday will effectively be for the No. 1 seed. I’d imagine the loser will still be rewarded with a first-round bye for going undefeated in the regular season and they’d be joined by a one-loss SEC champ Georgia and a one-loss Big 12 champ Texas Tech as the teams getting a pass straight to the quarterfinal.

Oregon and Texas A&M fell short of making their respective conference games but with one loss each, they are shoo-ins to each host a first-round game. There’s a chance they could backdoor their way into the top four should Georgia and/or Texas Tech lose this Saturday, but we’ll keep them at No. 5 and No. 6 for this projection. Oklahoma and Notre Dame are the strongest two-loss teams in the country and we’ll say that these two blue bloods will end up clashing for a first-round matchup in Norman.

And then there’s Ole Miss, who *should* be safely in the field even with head coach Lane Kiffin leaving for LSU. The CFP committee famously left an undefeated Florida State out of the field in 2023 due to quarterback Jordan Travis suffering a season-ending leg injury, stating the the Seminoles were a completely different team without him. We’ll say that the Rebels will be fine in an expanded 12-team bracket this year, but that prior precedent should be noted.

Bubble Teams – Made the Cut

Saturday’s ACC Championship Game will feature Virginia taking on a five-loss Duke and the Blue Devils winning could potentially risk the conference being left out of the field entirely. We’ll predict that the two-loss Cavaliers save the day with a win in Charlotte, punching their ticket to the dance as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.

That would leave the fifth and final guaranteed spot for a conference champ, a.k.a the Group of Five spot and that will be decided in the American Championship Game with North Texas visiting Tulane. The game will be in New Orleans and both programs are dealing with coaching distractions of their own with North Texas’ Eric Morris accepting the job at Oklahoma State and Tulane’s Jon Sumrall filling the vacancy at Florida. We’ll say that the explosive Mean Green offense led by Drew Mestemaker upends the Green Wave on the road, propelling them to a first-round trip to Oregon.

The other team in this category is Miami, who did not make the ACC title game with a 10-2 record. The big controversy right now is the committee repeatedly ranking Notre Dame ahead of Miami despite the Hurricanes owning a head-to-head victory over the Fighting Irish and both teams having an identical record. While the committee will most likely keep the Golden Domers ahead in the rankings, they’ll make it up to the “U” by including them into the field.

Bubble Teams – Missed the Cut

Alabama’s inclusion into the CFP Field most likely hinges on their ability to knock off Georgia in the SEC title game and that’s not happening in this projection. With three-losses including a now horrific looking Week 1 setback against Florida State, the Crimson Tide will be on the outside looking for a second-year in a row. One-loss BYU was ranked No. 11 in last week’s CFP rankings and will most likely have to play its way in with a win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. Assuming the Cougars lose, they will most likely be jumped by Miami for the final at-large bid.

Other teams that will most likely be left on the outside looking in are Utah, Vanderbilt, Texas, and USC, all of whom were in the top-20 in last week’s rankings. Meanwhile, James Madison is sitting at 11-1 and has a home date with Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game this Friday. All signs point towards the American champ grabbing the de-facto G5 bid, leaving the Dukes’ out in the cold. JMU’s only path towards the CFP is winning on Friday and and hoping for a Duke upset of Virginia in the ACC title game, allowing for two G5 champions in the bracket.