Selecting chalk within the NCAA Match is, satirically, a daring prediction.
Simply as soon as within the event’s trendy period has the Remaining 4 featured all 4 No. 1 seeds — in 2008. This yr’s crop simply occurs to be the highest-rated quartet for the reason that daybreak of KenPom.com. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn all charge greater than plus-35, one thing by no means earlier than seen for the reason that metrics web site started monitoring knowledge in 1997.
Once I ran this train again in late January, I settled on Duke, Houston, Auburn and Michigan State as a superb Remaining 4 wager. However now we’ve got areas and brackets laid out earlier than us. Tempting as it’s to interchange the Spartans with Florida and name it a day, let’s motive these out one area at a time.
South Area
Auburn misplaced three of its final 4, convincing some people to avoid the Tigers. These losses got here in opposition to a few of the greatest groups the SEC has to supply, so let’s not overreact. And after getting previous a woefully underseeded No. 8 Louisville, the Tigers would take pleasure in an opportunity to sink their enamel right into a revenge sport in opposition to No. 4 Texas A&M, which beat them two weeks in the past.
However the No. 2 seed right here is Michigan State, which has a reasonably simple highway to the Elite Eight (since No. 3 Iowa State will likely be down a key starter in Keshon Gilbert). That is Tom Izzo’s greatest crew since earlier than the pandemic, and the Spartans are higher than Auburn in two key areas: rebounding and attending to the road. I’ve this unshakable feeling we’re getting one final Izzo run to the Remaining 4.
Choose: No. 2 Michigan State
East Area
Feb 5, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks with guard Cooper Flagg (2) in opposition to the Syracuse Orange in the course of the first half on the JMA Wi-fi Dome. Necessary Credit score: Wealthy Barnes-Imagn Photos I mentioned this Monday: Duke has the simplest path of the No. 1 seeds, a lot in order that it may make the Candy 16 with Cooper Flagg in avenue garments, resting his sprained ankle. As soon as Duke’s there, I’m not involved a few 12-loss Arizona within the No. 4 spot, although a really well-rounded Oregon may give the Blue Devils bother because the No. 5 seed.
In the meantime, your different greatest candidates are No. 2 Alabama, whose protection I don’t belief, and No. 3 Wisconsin. Duke-Alabama and Duke-Wisconsin may make for some actually enjoyable Elite Eight matchups, however neither of those groups is prepared for the model of grind-it-out protection the Blue Devils play.
Choose: No. 1 Duke
Midwest Area
PHOTO USA TODAY SPORTS IMAGES Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) appears for a path round Florida defenders in the course of the second half of the Southeastern Convention event championship at Bridgestone Enviornment in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 16, 2025. What a enjoyable area. No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Tennessee have been knocking on the door for years now. The No. 3 seed is Kentucky, in Mark Pope’s first season as coach, and Purdue, Clemson and Illinois have all had moments this season the place they’ve seemed elite.
Between their terrific defenses and the sluggish tempos they every prefer to play, a Houston-Tennessee Elite Eight matchup seems like first one to 50 wins. The Cougars are additionally the most effective 3-point taking pictures groups on the market — however the Vols have the No. 1 perimeter protection in Division I. In the event that they chase the Cougars off the arc, I like the scale of Felix Okpara and firm to cease a Houston crew that’s beneath common on 2-pointers.
Choose: No. 2 Tennessee
West Area
Working in opposition to top-seeded Florida is that the West is probably the most tough area, residence to 5 of the highest 15 KenPom groups. The Gators may face two-time defending champion UConn within the spherical of 32, a red-hot Maryland crew within the Candy 16, and St. John’s, Texas Tech, Missouri and even Kansas within the Elite Eight. Even conceding the truth that UConn and Kansas aren’t severe title contenders, it is a meat grinder.
But I preserve coming again to the Gators’ profile and may’t discover a matchup that I don’t like for them. They’re a wildly environment friendly offense that may make 3-pointers whereas stopping the three on the different finish. They shield the ball and rank eighth in offensive rebounding share, in order that they’ll management possession. That is my different No. 1 seed choice for San Antonio.
Choose: No. 1 Florida