Blue Jays are signing Dylan Cease: Here’s 3 reasons why the move will backfire

The Toronto Blue Jays and starting pitcher Dylan Cease reportedly agreed to a seven-year contract worth $210 million. The Blue Jays are still facing questions with Bo Bichette remaining in free agency, but Toronto clearly wanted to upgrade the starting rotation. While the Blue Jays going out and spending money in MLB free agency is respectable, there are multiple reasons to doubt this specific signing.

Cease endured a down 2025 campaign with the San Diego Padres. Could he bounce back? Absolutely. However, the decision to give him a seven-year deal is fairly surprising.

Here are three reasons why the Blue Jays’ Cease signing will backfire.

Cease vs. the AL East

Cease spent five years with the Chicago White Sox in the American League before pitching in San Diego for the last two seasons. Although the White Sox play in the AL Central, Cease still faced AL East teams on a fairly consistent basis. His numbers against teams in the division are concerning, however.

According to StatMuse, Cease has pitched to a 4.61 ERA across 29 outings against AL East teams in his career. He has struck out 199 hitters and recorded a 7-8 overall record as well. For the most part, Cease has failed to find success against the division, but the situation becomes even more concerning when looking at his numbers versus specific ball clubs.

The New York Yankees — who will likely be the Blue Jays’ biggest threat for the division crown — have absolutely dominated Cease over the years. In six starts, Cease has a lackluster 5.34 ERA and has given up five home runs. It gets even worse for Cease against the Boston Red Sox, as his 6.04 ERA versus the team is concerning.

Dylan Cease’s undeniable inconsistency

Cease features the ceiling of a Cy Young candidate. In fact, he’s finished second and fourth in Cy Young voting in the past. Cease is also a pitcher who sometimes loses the strike zone and allows no shortage of walks. He has led the league in base-on-balls twice in his career.

The good news is that the Blue Jays’ new right-handed hurler has proven to be quite durable, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons. Still, that doesn’t change his inconsistent statistics.

Cease holds a career 3.88 ERA. In 2022, he turned in a career-best 2.20 ERA despite leading the league with 78 walks. Following his performance, Cease pitched to 4.58 ERA during the 2023 campaign. After rebounding in 2024 with a 3.47 ERA, Cease pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 2025 with the Padres.

Cease’s 2025 effort also saw him walk 71 batters. He still made 32 starts and struck out 215 hitters, but his overall performance was not especially encouraging.

He’s a guy who is going to get you strikeouts, but the lack of pitching command is a huge question mark.

Will he decline with Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays decided to give Cease a seven-year contract despite the inconsistency concerns and struggles against AL East teams. They are confident he can play a big role in the rotation for years to come. Even if Cease enjoys a strong 2026 season, the seven-year deal comes with risk.

Cease is going to be 30 years old in December. Many pitchers begin to decline in their 30’s. Even if he still has a few big years remaining, one has to wonder if decline will begin mid-way through the contract.

Are there pitchers who have performed well late into their 30’s? Yes, but it is not an especially common occurrence. Signing Cease to a contract that promises to pay him a lucrative amount of money well into his 30’s is a risky decision.

The Blue Jays’ Dylan Cease signing features plenty of reason for concern, but perhaps the new hurler in Toronto will prove the doubters wrong. Only time will tell.

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