Irrespective of the place you flip, from faculty basketball analysts to betting consultants, Duke is favored to win the nationwide title.
The Blue Devils got odds as quick as -110 as soon as the all-chalk Remaining 4 was finalized. They’re dealing with a Houston crew that’s on a 17-game profitable streak, then whichever SEC consultant emerges from the Florida-Auburn sport.
Why would I play the contrarian for the heck of it? I simply noticed Duke with my very own eyes. Give me the Dukies over the sphere.
A median faculty fan is aware of concerning the KenPom stat I discussed yesterday—how these Remaining 4 groups personal 4 of the ten greatest KenPom adjusted effectivity scores of all time. However I don’t suppose we’re making sufficient of a unique factoid.
Duke might develop into the primary crew in KenPom.com’s historical past (since 1997) to complete with an adjusted offensive score above 130 factors per 100 possessions. They’re at 130.1 via the Elite Eight.
The Blue Devils’ effectivity was evident once I lined them within the East Regional in Newark. Cooper Flagg is a menace anyplace on the courtroom, however in addition they boast an unstoppable lob menace in Khaman Maluach, who racked up extra dunks than I might rely, and three 40% 3-point shooters within the beginning 5—Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James.
The primary argument I’ve seen in favor of Houston has to do with its expertise and defensive would possibly. In spite of everything, it is a matchup between the No. 1 KenPom offense and the No. 1 protection, and Houston’s roster is full of fourth- and fifth-year gamers who theoretically might be extra snug underneath the lights than Duke’s freshman trio of Flagg, Knueppel and Maluach.
I’ve supported this Houston crew all season, and I’d take the Cougars in another matchup—simply not this one. Duke has a smothering protection of its personal, one I belief greater than Houston’s offense.
The Duke gamers like to play protection, one thing you possibly can’t say about each freshman-heavy lineup. Whereas Duke has shot no less than 50% in all 4 match video games so far, it has additionally held three of these opponents beneath 37% from the sphere, with Arizona and Caleb Love being the one exceptions. The Blue Devils deflated a high-powered Alabama offense like a balloon; a Houston crew that has scored within the 60s every of the final two video games received’t trouble them.
Florida has had a terrific yr however wanted a miracle to get previous Texas Tech. Auburn had a bumpy end to the common season, and it feels such as you’re listening to a couple of Johni Broome harm each three video games. Each groups have the top-end expertise to win a championship nearly any season, however Duke’s depth and full rotation are nonetheless superior.
Bonus prediction: For those who’re sick of chalk, take a look at the ladies’s Remaining 4, which is rather more numerous than the lads’s—with three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2. That No. 2 belongs to UConn, which, regardless of its seeding, is the highest-rated crew on the metrics website BartTorvik.com. I like Paige Bueckers, Sarah Sturdy and the Huskies to win the title—an actual triumph for underdogs in every single place.