Australia vs England 4th Test predictions and betting tips – Can England end their winless run?

The Ashes are over as a contest, but there is still plenty to play for when Australia and England line up for the Boxing Day Test at the MCG. 

The hosts seek to extend an 18-match unbeaten home run over England, while the visitors are playing for not just pride, but for some, their international futures.

• England to win 4th Test – 11/5 with Midnite
• Scott Boland over 4.5 match wickets – 4/6 with bet365
• Josh Tongue to be top England bowler – 11/4 with Betfred

Australia vs England odds

Find the latest Australia vs England betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended bookmakers and are subject to change.

Australia vs England 4th Test predictions

Australia are 3-0 up with just two matches to go. What was supposed to be one of the most fiercely competitive Ashes series for years was settled in just 11 days.

After disastrous performances in the 1st and 2nd Tests, an improved England crashed to an 82-run defeat in Adelaide last week. 

It was a far more mature performance from the tourists, but plenty of the flaws that have dogged this tour were still on show as England failed to capitalise on any sniff of an opening that came their way. 

Attention now turns to the 4th Test, and with the Urn already gone, England are in a position to make changes. The problem? They have very few options. 

England have Ben Duckett and Ollie Pope in desperate form. There is only one real option to change in the batting, and that is to bring in Jacob Bethell. 

The most likely scenario is Bethell will come in for Pope, but the 22-year-old has barely played any competitive cricket over the past 12 months and it’s a huge ask for him to step in and make an immediate impact.  

One other option is to move Will Jacks up the order and play another bowler, but that is unlikely. The reality is that England’s lack of batting cover has really been shown up. 

Brydon Carse could be at risk in the bowling department. He may be England’s top wicket taker, but he’s been very erratic and his wickets have cost a lot of runs. Jofra Archer may also be given a rest after playing in all three matches. 

Australia will again be without skipper Pat Cummins. With the Ashes won, Cummins has decided he can skip the last two matches and focus on rehab for his back injury at a more pedestrian pace. 

Nathan Lyon is also out, with the spinner leaving the Adelaide Oval on crutches and out for the remainder of the series. 

Along with Josh Hazlewood’s injury, this means England will play the remaining two matches against an Australia team without three quarters of their first-choice bowling lineup. 

Assuming he’s recovered from his vertigo, Steve Smith will return to the team and captain the side for the remainder of the series. The returning Smith means the Aussies will now have a decision to make after Usman Khawaja, Smith’s last-minute replacement, scored 122 runs at Adelaide. 

If the veteran does retain his place, the hosts are going to have to rejig their batting. Especially if coach Andrew McDonald gets his wish, and Adelaide Player of the Match Alex Carey retains the No.6 position in the batting lineup.  

Beau Webster is an option to play at No.7, with the Aussies possibly reluctant to relegate Cameron Green down from his No.5 position. The chances are the allrounder will lose his position in the team to give Webster a go. 

Plenty of chopping and changing by the hosts could play into England’s hands. 

Australia vs England 4th Test betting tips

There is likely to be over 90,000 at the MCG on Boxing Day, with the majority looking to roar their team on to a fourth successive win over England. It is set to be a spectacular occasion. Our Australia vs England 4th Test betting tips follow:

England to end 18-match winless run in Oz

Any regular readers of my Ashes predictions will know that I’ve tipped Australia to win all three Tests to date. However, I’m changing tactics for this match. 

Not because England has all of a sudden become a great team. But more because the Aussies are without Cummins, Hazlewood and Lyon, and this makes a bet on the home team at 8/15 look very risky.  

There is also the prospect of poor weather, which could bring the draw into the equation. But rain and damper conditions will also bring the bowlers into play, and let’s be honest, they’ve outshone the majority of the batters (with both bat and ball) throughout the majority of this series.

Some of the England players are playing for their futures and all will surely feel they owe Ben Stokes a performance. 

Taking all things into consideration, an England win looks like the better value bet this week.

Bet on England to win the 4th Test at 11/5 with Midnite

Boland to cash in on home knowledge again

Scott Boland produced match figures of 7/55 the last time he faced England on his home ground four years ago. This includes his memorable second innings spell of six wickets for seven runs in just four overs.

Boland is 15/4 to be Australia’s top wicket taker in the match. However, this is a competitive market, especially when he’s up against Mitchell Starc who has ripped England apart in this series.

Instead of picking out who will be Australia’s top bowler, we are instead backing Scotty Boland to pick up five or more wickets in the Test match. 

He picked up four in the 1st Test, three in the 2nd and four in the 3rd. We’re backing him to produce his best performance of the series at his home venue.

Back Scott Boland to take over 4.5 wickets in the match at 4/6 with bet365

Tongue to build on positive start

Josh Tongue picked up five wickets for England in his first match of the series in Adelaide. This included an impressive 4/70 in Australia’s second innings.

The wicket at the MCG is more likely to suit the bowlers, and with Tongue now having a game under his belt, he may well turn in an even better performance in Melbourne. 

There are doubts about Brydon Carse keeping his place, and Jofra Archer may well be rested for this match. Tongue looks the best value bet to be the top England bowler in the match.

Back Josh Tongue to be top England bowler in match at 11/4 with Betfred

Australia vs England 4th Test predicted lineups

• Australia expected lineup: Travis Head, Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (Captain), Usman Khawaja, Alex Carey, Beau Webster, Mitchell Starc, Michael Neser, Scott Boland, Todd Murphy.
• England expected lineup: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (Captain), Jamie Smith, Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson, Jofra Archer, Josh Tongue.

How to watch Australia vs England 4th Test

• Location: MCG, Melbourne, Australia.
• Time: 11.30pm on Thursday, December 25th, 2025
• Where to watch: Live on TNT Sports 1.

About the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)

Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 18+. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Remember to gamble responsibly

A responsible gambler is someone who:

• Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
• Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
• Never chase their losses
• Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed
• Gamcare – www.gamcare.org.uk
• GambleAware – www.gambleaware.org

Find our detailed guide on responsible gambling practices here.

For help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or go to www.gamstop.co.uk to be excluded from all UK-regulated gambling websites.