Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips – Derby in the Gulf

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will renew hostilities almost 3000 miles from the Spanish capital. The Supercopa de Espana is back in Saudi Arabia, and these two rivals will face off in the semi-finals.

Xabi Alonso could really do with a trophy after a sticky start to his Madrid career, but Atletico have designs on the prize too. Who will win this last-four clash?

• Draw – 12/5 with 247Bet
• Second half to be higher scoring – Evens with SBK
• Gonzalo Garcia to score any time – 8/5 with bet365

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds

Find the latest Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predictions

Xabi Alonso has pulled himself back from the brink, but at the moment every game feels like a referendum on his Real Madrid tenure.

Under huge pressure last month, Alonso oversaw back-to-back La Liga victories over Alaves and Sevilla before Christmas to ensure his survival until 2026.

A 5-1 thumping of Real Betis at the weekend will have left him sitting even more comfortably. Madrid are only four points off Barcelona in top spot, so they are by no means out of the title race despite their recent struggles.

Kylian Mbappe missed Sunday’s game at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, while Madrid were also without a host of defensive players.

They nevertheless delivered a terrific showing on home turf, beating an accomplished opponent in style. Mbappe’s replacement up front, Gonzalo Garcia, scored a hat-trick on a day which will live long in the memory of the local lad.

Fellow academy graduates Raul Asencio and Fran Garcia also got their names on the scoresheet, making it the first time since 1989 that youth products had scored five goals in a Madrid match.

“What a stat,” Alonso said when that was put to him in his post-match press conference. “I think that’s very good news and shows that whoever deserves their chance will get it. When you get onto the field, you have your chance, because of your work and attitude, and I’m delighted for them. 

“It was a deserved win, at home, especially after how we ended the year. We’re calm, but have good feelings heading into the Super Cup.”

It was indeed the perfect way to start 2026. The result was the most important thing after Barcelona had beaten Espanyol a day earlier, but only an emphatic victory would have placated Alonso’s critics (for now at least). 

However, the manager knows better than anyone that he would be right back at square one were Madrid to come unstuck in the semi-finals of the Supercopa de Espana.

Atletico Madrid would love to get one over on their city rivals. They demolished the Blancos 5-2 in September and will be quietly confident of getting the better of them again on Thursday.

Diego Simeone, who recently marked his 14-year anniversary as Atletico boss, should never be written off.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting tips

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid contest the second semi-final at the Supercopa de Espana.

Penalty shoot-out required?

In October 2024, the Spanish Football Federation announced that there would no longer be extra time in the Supercopa de Espana. From that date forward, a drawn match after 90 minutes would go straight to penalties.

That rule was not needed last year as Real Madrid and Barcelona won their semi-finals pretty comfortably. But we could see a penalty shoot-out this time.

It is hard to pick a winner between these two. Madrid have picked up of late, but they remain vulnerable against good sides.

Atletico Madrid have not drawn many matches of late, but the score did finish level when they faced Real Sociedad last time out. A hard-fought stalemate could be on the cards here.

Select a draw at 12/5 with 247Bet

Cagey first half expected

As they have established themselves as Spain’s third force over the last decade or so, Atletico Madrid have had to evolve from the defence-minded, counter-attacking team they were early in Simeone’s tenure.

In big games, though, they often return to those roots, and Atletico will be in full spoiling mode against Real Madrid.

That is not to say they are incapable of outplaying their rivals. After all, Simeone’s men put five past Madrid just a few months ago.

That was on home turf, though, and it will be harder to be as dominant in Jeddah. A tight, cagey first half awaits on Thursday, but hopefully the game will open up after the interval.

Back the second half to be higher scoring at evens with SBK

Garcia can bag again

At the time of writing, it is touch and go whether Kylian Mbappe will be available for Thursday’s match.

Alonso will surely not want to risk his star player if he is not 100 per cent ready. Anyway, it would be harsh to drop Gonzalo Garcia after his hat-trick against Real Betis.

Garcia is full of youthful confidence, and his energy will be an asset against Atletico Madrid.

There is no doubt that Mbappe remains Real Madrid’s most important player, but this semi-final gives Garcia another chance to show he is a useful deputy.

Tip Gonzalo Garcia to score any time at 8/5 with bet365

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid predicted lineups

• Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko; Simeone, Gallagher, Koke, Baena; Sorloth, Alvarez.
• Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius; Garcia

Where to watch Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

• Location: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
• Date and time: Thursday 8th January, 7pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 1.

More Supercopa de Espana predictions

We have plenty more Supercopa de Espana predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

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About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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