Aston Villa vs Arsenal predictions and betting tips – Third versus first at Villa Park

Aston Villa are in fantastic form after a thrilling victory over Brighton & Hove Albion in midweek. Arsenal were also triumphant last time out, as Mikel Arteta’s team maintained their five-point lead in top spot.

Can Villa move closer to Arsenal by picking up all three points at Villa Park, or will the league leaders march on?

• Draw – 5/2 with BetMGM
• Under 2.5 goals – 8/11 with talkSPORT BET
• Mikel Merino to score any time – 13/5 with Paddy Power

Aston Villa vs Arsenal odds

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Aston Villa vs Arsenal predictions

Arsenal may be the Premier League leaders, but they are not the division’s form team across the last 10 rounds of fixtures.

That accolade belongs to Aston Villa, who have collected 25 points from the last 30 available. Arsenal have mustered only 24 in the same period.

That marks quite the turnaround. Unai Emery’s men hit the ground trudging at the beginning of 2025/26, failing to win any of their first five games.

Three of those matches were draws, but defeats by Brentford and Crystal Palace suggested that Villa were in for a long, hard season. What is more, Emery’s team failed to even score a goal in their first 426 minutes of action.

They finally got off the mark in late September, coming from a goal down to beat Fulham 3-1. Villa have not looked back since.

Their latest success came against Brighton & Hove Albion in midweek. Two goals down after half an hour, Villa dug deep to mount a spirited comeback. They were forced to hold on nervously towards the end, but the Villans departed the Amex Stadium as 4-3 victors.

Manchester City and Chelsea have been spoken of as Arsenal’s closest challengers this season, whereas Villa have gone under the radar despite their fantastic form.

There are good reasons for that. First, Villa are not used to challenging for league titles. Second, they do not have the same strength in depth as City or Chelsea. Third, and perhaps most significant, their underlying numbers are mediocre at best.

Indeed, while Villa are third in the actual table, they rank a lowly 14th for expected goals difference. 

A positive interpretation of that discrepancy would focus on Villa’s fine finishing, but history shows that such an overperformance is unsustainable. Villa have been reliant on goals from outside the box up to now, and that is not really a viable long-term strategy.

Still, Arsenal will not relish this trip to Villa Park for the early kick-off on Saturday. They will arrive in the West Midlands without some key players, Declan Rice and Cristhian Mosquera having joined Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba on the treatment table.

Arsenal are the team to beat in the Premier League, with the bookies making them odds-on favourites for the title. But a slip-up this weekend would open the door to Manchester City, Chelsea and, yes, Aston Villa.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal betting tips

Third-placed Aston Villa will take on Premier League leaders Arsenal in Saturday’s early kick-off.

Honours even in Birmingham

Aston Villa will be well up for this game. 

A win would move them within three points of top spot, and while that does not mean they will go on to mount a sustained title tilt, it would put them in the title conversation for the time being.

Emery is an excellent manager who excels at coming up with one-off game plans in individual matches. That is why his record in European knockout football is so impressive.

But this Arsenal team is nothing if not resilient. Even without three core members of their spine, the Gunners will be competitive on Saturday.

Neither manager, you feel, would be too disappointed with a point.

Choose a draw at 5/2 with BetMGM

Tactical battle awaits

Aston Villa will look to harness the home crowd to their advantage on Saturday, so Arsenal must accept they will come under pressure for parts of this match.

Unlike previous iterations, this Arsenal side is well equipped to soak up pressure and stand up to a physical challenge.

The Gunners will also carry a threat going the other way, but this is more likely to be a low-scoring tactical battle than an open, end-to-end encounter.

Goals could be on the low end at Villa Park, with both Emery and Arteta not wanting to give too much away.

Go for under 2.5 goals at 8/11 with talkSPORT BET

Merino to continue run

If you were not familiar with Mikel Merino’s past, you would assume from his recent performances that he had played up front for his entire career.

Merino is a central midfielder by trade, but his movement, positioning and finishing suggest he has become more than a makeshift centre-forward.

Having scored against both Chelsea and Brentford in recent days, Merino looks set to continue as Arsenal’s striker against Aston Villa.

That would possibly necessitate deploying Christian Norgaard in midfield, but given Merino’s form in front of goal it would be a brave decision to use him elsewhere.

Tip Mikel Merino to score any time at 13/5 with Paddy Power

Aston Villa vs Arsenal predicted lineups

• Aston Villa expected lineup: Bizot; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans; Buendia, McGinn, Rogers; Watkins.
• Arsenal expected lineup: Raya; Timber, White, Hincapie, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Norgaard; Saka, Odegaard, Eze; Merino.

Where to watch Aston Villa vs Arsenal

• Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England.
• Date and time: Saturday 6th December, 12.30pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 1.

More Premier League predictions

We have plenty more Premier League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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