World Series Predictions: 3 Best Bets for Brewers vs. Rays

The Fall Classic begins Friday night, featuring a matchup many people didn’t predict, but probably should have.

If you weren’t paying close attention, reading "Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays" on the World Series marquee might make you think something weird happened this postseason. In reality, the Brewers and Rays were the best teams in their respective leagues all year, and this so-called small-market summit is actually pretty chalky.

But will that trend hold through this best-of-seven championship? Or will the wise wagerer back some unforeseen twists? remain that way once the best-of-seven championship begins? Or are there some shocks worth betting on?

No one knows for sure, but read on for how the series might play out and how you should bet on it with our top three World Series futures bets.

Total Number of Games: Seven (+225)

Since MLB implemented league championship series in 1969, the World Series has gone the distance 18 of 56 times, a 32.1% rate, slightly higher than the implied 30.8% probability that +225 odds convey.

And when you think of the kind of series you’d expect could go seven games, a meeting of each league's best regular season performer fits the description.

Oddsmakers are leaning more decisively in Milwaukee’s favor. And yes, the Brewers did post baseball’s best record this season before sweeping a far more expensive LA Dodgers squad in the NLCS.

But after that sweep, Milwaukee has had to sit for a full week, an eternity in a sport where playing every day is the norm. If you believe the Brewers are two games better than the Rays in neutral conditions, you should probably give the Rays an extra game based on being less rusty heading into Game 1.

Which leads us to our next wager…

Game 1/Series Double: Rays/Brewers (+450)

The paradox of the baseball postseason is that the Brewers are effectively punished for their NLCS excellence. Add a pretty even pitching matchup of Jacob Misiorowski against Drew Rasmussen, and you should like the Rays’ Game 1 chances.

At the same time, the Brewers have every opportunity to let their quality eventually overtake a less complete Tampa Bay squad.

We’ve already seen this pattern play out a couple of times this postseason. In the ALDS, it took the rested Cleveland Guardians two games to wake up against the Chicago White Sox before rallying to a 3-2 series victory. Then the opposite occurred in the ALCS, where the Rays looked rusty in Game 1 before winning three in a row to complete a 4-2 series win.

World Series MVP: Jake Bauers (+1300, DraftKings)

The 31-year-old Bauers is a career journeyman finally enjoying the rewards of a breakout season, and there’s no evidence the big stage will somehow get the better of him.

Bauers already has the second-most RBIs of postseason players whose teams are still alive, one behind Brewers teammate Jackson Churio. And Bauers has something Churio does not: a respectable .819 OPS against Rasmussen, who is likely to make at least two starts and maybe even pitch in a third game as the Rays' ace.

Throw in a career .941 OPS in 16 postseason games across three years, and maybe Bauers is just the kind of player who excels in these moments. There’s a hint of Steve Pearce, who was the same age when he finally broke out as a reputable MLB hitter with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014 before winning the 2018 World Series MVP with the Boston Red Sox.