Week 9 Best And Worst WR, TE Matchups: DeMario Douglas, Adonai Mitchell get downgrades

It’s always a popular question — or string of questions — during my Friday live streams on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which outside (boundary) wideouts are in good spots?

While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing if a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a tiebreaker for your most vexing start-sit decisions.

This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers operating from the slot and those lining up primarily on the boundary. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to pinpoint the most appealing (and unappealing) weekly matchups, and what they might mean for your weekly start-sit decisions.

Slot Matchups

Fantasy Points Data

Browns vs. Saints

Shedeur Sanders, who will get the start this week with Deshaun Watson in the league’s concussion protocol, is functionally the same as Watson, per the spreadsheets. Last year Sanders was just about as inaccurate and check-down happy as Watson. I don’t anticipate much changing for Cleveland pass catchers in Week 9 unless Sanders collapses. I guess that’s always in the range of outcomes.

The Saints are an increasingly good matchup for slot guys. Here that will include both Harold Fannin (40 percent slot rate) and KC Concepcion (66 percent slot rate). No team allows a higher completion rate over expected on throws to the slot, and ten defenses allow a higher EPA per pass to the slot. Since Week 5, the Saints have given up 28.5 expected fantasy points per game to slot pass catchers, the fourth highest mark in the league over that span.

Look for Fannin, who saw a target on 27 percent of his routes in 2025 with Sanders at QB, to continue his hot play. Fannin over the past two weeks ranks fourth in expected fantasy points per game among tight ends. He’s cooking.

Cowboys vs. Colts

Ryan Flournoy could be an interesting flex play against a Colts secondary that has bled fantasy production to slot pass catchers through Week 8. Indy gives up the league’s eighth highest EPA per pass attempt to the slot, and a mere three defenses have allowed more receiving yards on slot targets in 2026.

Flournoy runs about half his routes from the slot. Over his past four games he’s seen a target on 18 percent of his routes. That’s not half bad considering Flournoy has to compete for footballs with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Colts vs. Cowboys

On the other side of this game we have Josh Downs running from the slot at a 70 percent rate and facing off against a Dallas secondary giving up the fifth highest EPA on target pass attempts (and being targeted via the slot at a high rate, as you can see in the chart above).

The problem for Downs is that Keenan Allen -- our millennial king -- has asserted himself as the clear WR1 in the Indy offense. Allen is seeing a target on 28 percent of his routes; Downs is at 18 percent on the season. Downs is in a good spot though: Only three defenses allow more expected fantasy points per game on slot throws than the Cowboys, and no team has allowed more receiving yards to slot pass catchers.

Patriots vs. Packers

DeMario Douglas has been somewhat fun for fantasy managers with A.J. Brown sidelined. That probably ends this week against a Green Bay secondary giving up the NFL’s lowest adjusted yards per attempt to slot receivers.

The Seahawks and Vikings are the only two defenses allowing a lower expected fantasy points per game to slot guys. The Packers have given up just 350 yards on slot throws all season. That’s … pretty low. Be careful with Pop Douglas this week.

Boundary Matchups

Fantasy Points Data

Lions vs. Dolphins

Jameson Williams is once again in a great situation as the Lions take on a Miami secondary allowing the highest rate of fantasy points per target to receivers lined up on the boundary.

Jamo has been hot lately, and the air yards should continue apace against the Dolphins barring some kind of weird game script (which could happen in such a potentially lopsided affair). The Dolphins this season have given up the seventh highest EPA per pass attempt on boundary throws. Even if Jamo doesn’t see a bunch of looks here, he could easily make your day fantasy-wise.

Jets vs. Chiefs

Kansas City’s secondary has been nails all season. Maybe you know that if you got cute at some point and started a wideout against the Chiefs. That, from my experience, has not been fun.

So this is my warning not to get too excited and chase Adonai Mitchell‘s Week 7 explosion against the down-bad Raiders. The Chiefs this season give up by far the lowest EPA per pass attempt to the boundary. Only four defenses allow a lower rate of fantasy points per boundary target. There’s no question the KC secondary shuts down boundary wideouts (as well as slot guys, to a slightly lesser extent). Mitchell is going to have to make the most of his air yards if he’s going to get by as a WR3 this week.

Bucs vs. Bears

The following analysis presumes, of course, that the Bucs will throw more than a few passes this week and maybe even complete one against Chicago. We can’t assume anything.

The Bears defense has proven vulnerable to outside receivers this year. No defense, in fact, has allowed a higher fantasy points per target to boundary pass catchers through Week 8. Chicago allows the eighth highest EPA per pass on boundary throws. While they’re stingy against the slot, teams have found success on the outside.

That should benefit Ted Hurst here, especially if Emeka Egbuka remains sidelined. The speedy Hurst has seen a 29 percent air yards share on the season as the Bucs’ main downfield threat. Hurst has a fairly high 64 percent prayer yards rate on the season — meaning unconverted air yards — so a little positive regression is not out of the question in Week 9.