The first two weeks of the college football regular season have brought plenty of chaos and surprises, and the projected College Football Playoff picture has already been shaken up in a major way.
In Week 2, two more playoff contenders fell by the wayside in shocking losses. Oregon, one week after surviving an upset scare from Boise State, laid an egg in Stillwater against Oklahoma State in a 39-31 loss that has the chance to stand as one of the biggest upsets of the season.
Earlier in the morning, Oklahoma walked into the Big House to play against a Michigan team that looked awful in Week 1. John Mateer and the Sooners looked even worse and could barely move the ball at all in a 17-10 loss that left a ton of questions in its wake.
Ohio State also fell to Texas in Week 2, blowing a 20-point lead in the process, but there was little from that game to suggest that the Buckeyes won't still be among the country's elite teams.
As the season goes on, more questions will continue to arise surrounding a lot of these contenders. For now, here's a go at projecting what the CFP will look like at the end of the year.
1. Texas (13-0, SEC Champion)
Texas was getting its butt kicked for the first three quarters against Ohio State, but there was still some pretty flukey stuff holding the offense back early on. Raleek Brown fumbled deep in Texas territory on the first series of the game. Cam Coleman dropped an explosive play that ended up being an interception. Ryan Wingo had a touchdown go through his hands.
Overall, this Longhorns team proved a few things in this win over Ohio State. Number one, the offensive line looks improved from a season ago, and Steve Sarkisian has two explosive running backs that he can lean on. Number two, Arch Manning is still improving and should continue getting better throughout the season. Finally, this is a talented and scrappy secondary that is able to complement Colin Simmons and this pass rush. Texas is going to be tough to beat, especially with the confidence it will gain from this win.
2. Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten Champion)
Are there some things to be concerned about from Ohio State's collapse on Saturday? Sure. Arthur Smith got a bit conservative, Julian Sayin was up and down, and the pass rush didn't have as much of an impact in the fourth quarter as you would like to see.
None of that takes away from the fact that this will be an extremely well-schemed defense and an offense that is overwhelmingly talented at the skill positions. For the most part, Smith had a lot of easy buttons for Sayin and kept Jeremiah Smith involved in the offense. This Buckeyes team should be just fine despite the sour taste from this loss.
3. Notre Dame (11-1)
Notre Dame is going to keep chugging along here as the Irish continue to roll through an easy schedule during the first six weeks. At the moment, we still have them beating Miami (FL) and losing on the road to BYU. CJ Carr has looked good so far, and the Irish defense is talented enough to completely overwhelm most of the teams that it plays.
4. LSU (11-2, SEC runner-up)
LSU has been one of the biggest risers early in this season. Sam Leavitt threw three picks on Saturday against Louisiana Tech, but the Tigers were still so impressive in Week 1 against Clemson that they are more than capable of rolling through a lot of this schedule. While it's hard to get a full gauge on where Lane Kiffin and company are at in year one, a Week 3 trip to Oxford and a reunion with Ole Miss will be very telling. Bring your hard hats!
5. Georgia (11-1)
Georgia hasn't been tested yet, so it's hard to get a feel for just how much Gunner Stockton and this offense have developed since last season. Still, Kirby Smart and company have taken care of business so far in 2026, which is all they can do up to this point. Saturday's game against Arkansas likely won't provide any more clarity, but a Week 4 tilt with Oklahoma will be telling as the annual clash with Alabama looms.
6. Miami (FL) (12-1, ACC Champion)
Miami might very well be the best team in the country, and Darian Mensah might be the best quarterback in the country. He is, after all, our preseason Heisman pick and has done nothing to knock himself off of that perch. Is there any way to confirm any of those things after Mario Cristobal and company beat Stanford and Florida A&M by a combined 109 points? Probably not.
With Clemson looking like it might be in the gutter and Florida State spiraling once again, Miami's first real test might not come until Oct. 24 against Pitt⦠at the earliest. Until then, let's just enjoy Mensah and Malachi Toney shredding the overmatched defenses across from them.
7. Indiana (11-2, Big Ten runner-up)
Indiana, as has become tradition under Curt Cignetti, is getting its tune-ups in before Big Ten play gets underway. Josh Hoover looks good and has reeled in some of the recklessness from his TCU tape, but he also hasn't played any defenses that have been any match for the Hoosiers yet. Keep an eye out for Charlie Becker, who emerged late last season and has been on a tear to start 2026.
8. Texas Tech (12-1, Big 12 Champion)
Texas Tech looked pretty bad, to be quite honest, in a win over Oregon State on Saturday, but weird things happen in night games in Corvallis. The Red Raiders have a quite fortunate schedule, where it's two most difficult games (against Houston and Arizona State) are both at home, and they don't play BYU or Utah. Even in Lubbock, expect the Cougars to pose a significant challenge on Friday night.
9. USC (10-2)
USC has looked really good on offense and pretty shaky on defense so far this season, which was to be expected to a degree. Jayden Maiava has been surgical against lesser competition so far, and he is more than capable of keeping that up when Big Ten play starts. With Oregon looking shaky, USC finds the extra win it needed in our projection to get into the field as an at-large.
10. Alabama (10-2)
Alabama had a rough first half on Saturday against Kentucky, but the Tide regrouped and ran the Wildcats off the field after the break. Keelon Russell clearly gives the offense a ton of potential, especially if his talent continues to overcome some of the inconsistencies in his game as a young player. This Alabama defense has also shown the talent to be a very good unit in the SEC.
11. BYU (11-1)
BYU was impressive in a win over what should be a good Arizona team on Saturday, and it did it in BYU fashion. Kalani Sitake and company were methodical, they ran the football at will, and Bear Bachmeier took care of the ball and was hyper-efficient. That should be good enough to get BYU through most of a schedule that doesn't include Texas Tech or Houston, but does bring Notre Dame down to Provo.
12. Boise State (12-1, Pac-12 Champion)
Boise State responded to a strong performance against Oregon in Week 1 with a convincing home win against a good Memphis team in Week 2. Those are arguably the two best teams on the Broncos' schedule this season as they enter the new-look Pac-12. With an experienced quarterback and a group up front that has shown it can hold up, Boise State is the favorite to make it in as the Group of Five representative.
Next Out:ÃÂ Ole Miss (9-3), Houston (11-2, Big 12 runner-up), Utah (11-1), Oregon (9-3), SMU (10-2)
First round predictions
No. 5 Georgia defeats No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 11 BYU
No. 7 Indiana defeats No. 10 Alabama
No. 9 USC defeats No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal predictions
No. 1 Texas defeats No. 9 USC
No. 2 Ohio State defeats No. 7 Indiana
No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 3 Notre Dame
No. 5 Georgia defeats No. 4 LSU
Semifinal predictions
No. 1 Texas defeats No. 5 Georgia
No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 2 Ohio State
National championship
No. 6 Miami (FL) defeats No. 1 Texas