The first College Football Playoff rankings took a lot of people by surprise heading into Week 10, but it left some teams with massive opportunities to make a statement on the biggest Saturday of the year.
Some of the committee's more surprising rankings were proven to be correct. Alabama, which many thought was ranked too high at No. 5, dominated No. 14 LSU, a ranking many thought was too low, in Death Valley. The Crimson Tide's 31-13 win cemented that, even with two losses, that this Alabama team is one of the best in the nation and a contender to win a national championship.
Elsewhere on Saturday, some under-ranked teams made massive statements to the committee. Notre Dame, which was ranked No. 11 a week ago, jumped out to a big lead against No. 1 Miami before hanging on in the fourth quarter to cement itself as a CFP team. Tennessee, which entered at No. 13, dominated No. 6 Kentucky 34-6 and is firmly in the mix for one of the final 12 spots as a result.
On the less impressive front, Ohio State is all but eliminated from CFP contention after a 41-28 loss to Oregon at home. Missouri is also probably out after a loss to Texas, and Ole Miss is facing a steep climb after a complete no-show in a 42-7 loss to Georgia at home.
Who is in and who is out heading into Week 11? We simmed through the rest of the season to find out.
1. Georgia (12-1, SEC Champion)
Through 10 weeks, Georgia is without a doubt the best team in college football. Will it stay that way? Do you have to pick the Bulldogs to win the national championship? Are they guaranteed to continue rolling everyone like they did against Ole Miss in Oxford on Saturday night? Not necessarily, but at the moment, there isn't a convincing case for anybody else. Kirby Smart has his guys playing extremely hungry football after the loss to Auburn, and they are the favorites in the SEC at the moment.
2. Indiana (12-1, Big Ten Champion)
Indiana had the week off, which was much needed for Curt Cignetti and company to fix an offense that has been pretty bad over the last few games. It is also a chance for Josh Hoover to get healthy after he was banged up and then benched for Grant Wilson against Minnesota. Who the Hoosiers will start at quarterback in Week 11 against USC remains to be seen, but Indiana still has an inside track to the Big 10 Championship Game with three weeks to go.
3. Utah (12-1, Big 12 Champion)
Utah was one of the biggest winners of Week 10. The Utes survived a pretty sleepy second quarter to beat BYU 28-20 and remain undefeated this season. Now, only Texas Tech has one loss in the Big 12, while Utah is unbeaten. That essentially guarantees Utah a shot in the Big 12 Championship Game in December, and it might take two losses before then for them to be out of the CFP picture. Morgan Scalley and the Utes will very likely be playing into late December.
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
Notre Dame absolutely had to win on Saturday night against Miami to avoid a dreaded repeat of last year's discourse and result, and it got the job done on Saturday. Now, the Irish are sitting pretty with just one loss and should be close to the top five in the next CFP rankings. Notre Dame has one tough test left on its schedule, against SMU in Week 12, but the Mustangs' defense shouldn't be able to keep up with C.J. Carr and company if the Irish offense is clicking. Marcus Freeman's squad has 11-1 written all over it and should be in contention for a top-four seed.
5. Miami (FL) (12-1, ACC Champion)
Miami fell to Notre Dame in its first game without Malachi Toney, but it felt like Darian Mensah and company finally started to find some answers in the second half without their superstar wide receiver. If they can keep that going through the rest of the season, they should be fine to roll through the rest of the ACC and take down likely Wake Forest or SMU in the conference title game. If the Hurricanes will need Toney back in January if they still want to win a national championship, and that seems to be the likely outcome at the moment. We're still taking them to win it all in the end.
6. Tennessee (10-3, SEC Runner-Up)
If one were to list all of the units they don't want to see in a one-game playoff scenario, the list wouldn't be very long before the Tennessee defense gets mentioned. Jim Knowles and company completely stifled a very good Kentucky offense on Saturday, and have done the same to both Texas and Alabama earlier in the year. The offense is a work in progress, but it has an identity with the running game. The Vols have a real chance to win an SEC Championship this season and should be in the final 12.
7. Alabama (10-2)
Alabama had one of the most impressive wins of the weekend, going to Death Valley and running away with the game in the second half against LSU. Keelon Russell is already one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Kane Wommack coached circles around Lane Kiffin in Week 10. The Tide have a light schedule for the rest of the season and should find itself at 10-2, safely in the field. Now, Kalen DeBoer's squad will hope for some help around the SEC to get into the conference title game.
8. UCLA (12-1, Big Ten Runner-Up)
UCLA survived a tricky road test on Saturday against Minnesota thanks to more opportunistic, complementary play and a barrage of explosive passes from Ty Dieffenbach. Now, the coast is clear for the Bruins to get to 11-0 before a meeting with USC to close the regular season. Win or lose in that game, Bob Chesney and company should find themselves in the CFP in his first season as head coach, and they will likely get a shot at a Big Ten title with Ohio State's season falling apart.
9. Texas (9-3)
Texas isn't ever all that impressive for 60 minutes on these college football Saturdays, but they continue to beat good football teams at the end of most of them. Arch Manning looked more comfortable in Week 10 on the road against Missouri, and the Longhorns receivers stepped up with Cam Coleman out. Raleek Brown looks like a man possessed while filling in for the injured Hollywood Smothers, and this Texas defense is still one of the best in the nation.
Texas also has arguably the best collection of wins in the entire country, with home victories over a healthy Ohio State and Ole Miss to go alongside road wins at Tennessee and Missouri. If there ends up being a conglomerate of three-loss teams for the committee to sort through, Texas will be at the top of the pile.
10. BYU (10-2)
BYU lost to Utah on Saturday, putting its Big 12 Championship hopes in serious peril. But Kalani Sitake and company still have that valuable Notre Dame win to lean on, and there is a clear path to 10-2 for the Cougars. If they get there, it will be hard for the committee to leave out a team with two losses and one of the best non-conference wins in the sport.
11. Kentucky (9-3)
This final at-large spot could have gone about seven different ways. In this week's simulation, Iowa is 10-2 but doesn't have a signature win. Ole Miss would be 9-3, but is in the same situation as its win over LSU continues to lose value. Texas Tech, Houston and Wake Forest all lack the big-time wins to get them in over Will Stein and Kentucky.
The Wildcats don't have any earth-shaking results on their schedule either, but a road win over South Carolina continues to age better and better as the Gamecocks hang around in the CFP race. That, combined with the win over LSU and a couple of tough wins away from Lexington, earns them the nod here.
12. Boise State (12-1, Pac-12 Champion)
Boise State, even without Maddux Madsen, hung 64 points on a Colorado State defense that is just a complete mess at the moment to get to 8-1 on the season. The Broncos will now host College GameDay in Week 11 when Jesse Legree and Oregon State come to town, but the Beavers are slumping and shouldn't be able to keep up with the Broncos. However, some recent defensive issues could be the downfall of Boise State's CFP push.
Next out: Iowa (10-2), Ole Miss (9-3), Oregon (9-3), Houston (10-3, Big 12 Runner-Up), Texas Tech (10-2), Wake Forest (10-3, ACC Runner-Up)
First Round Predictions
No. 5 Miami (FL) defeats No. 12 Boise State
Article Continues BelowNo. 6 Tennessee defeats No. 11 Kentucky
No. 7 Alabama defeats No. 10 BYU
No. 9 Texas defeats No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal predictions
No. 1 Georgia defeats No. 9 Texas
No. 7 Alabama defeats No. 2 Indiana
No. 6 Tennessee defeats No. 3 Utah
No. 5 Miami (FL) defeats No. 4 Notre Dame
Semifinal Predictions
No. 5 Miami (FL) defeats No. 1 Georgia
No. 7 Alabama defeats No. 6 Tennessee
National Championship
No. 5 Miami (FL) defeats No. 7 Alabama