For five straight weeks, a team ranked in the top two in the AP Poll has lost. Utah hopes to avoid making it six weeks in a row as they visit Arizona. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Utah-Arizona prediction and pick.
Utah comes in at a perfect 9-0 on the season, one of two teams still undefeated this year. Overall, the games have not been close. They dominated their first five games of the year, winning every game by at least 14 points. Then, they visited Colorado. Utah looked like they would cruise to another easy win, opening up a 13-0 lead in the first half. Colorado had other plans. They scored the first 17 points of the second half to take the lead. That is when Utah sprang back to life, re-took the lead, and won the game 27-24. Utah then beat a ranked Houston team 21-13, before taking care of business against Cincinnati. Last time out, they hosted BYU. Devon Dampier helped Utah build a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but BYU stormed back and led 20-14 at the end of the first half. The defense took over from there, not allowing another BYU point, as Dampier accounted for two more touchdowns in the 28-20 win.
Meanwhile, Arizona is 7-2 this year. They opened up the season with a 35-7 win over Northern Arizona, before losing to BYU on the road 28-17. The Wildcats then won five straight games before visiting Texas Tech. The Wildcats got off to a hot start in that game, leading 17-10 at the end of the first half. They would not be able to hold on, though, falling 34-26. Last time out, Arizona faced TCU. The Wildcats got out to a 10-point lead, but TCU scored two touchdowns, including a pick-six of Noah Fifita, to lead 14-10 at the end of the first half. TCU led by eight in the fourth quarter, when Fifita found Quincy Craig in the endzone with just 1:45 left in the game. Still, they failed on the two-point conversion. Arizona then recovered an onside kick, drove the field, and hit the game-winning field goal, winning the game 29-28.
Utah vs. Arizona Odds
Utah: -2.5 (-115)
Arizona: +2.5 (-105)
Over: 54.5 (-115)
Under: 54.5 (-105)
Watch Utah-Arizona LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Utah vs. Arizona Key Injuries
Utah- DT Karson Kaufusi (Doubtful), RB Wayshawn Parker (Questionable), CB Elijah Reed (Probable), LS Logan Castor (Probable)
Arizona- LB Max Harris (Out), RB Ismail Mahdi (Out), CB Swayde Griffin (Out), DL Kevin Moorer Jr. (Out), DL Ezra Funa (Out), CB Jay'Vion Cole (Questionable), TE Shane King (Questionable), S Cam Chapa (Questionable), S Malcolm Hartzog Jr. (Questionable), S Quinn Olson (Questionable)
Utah vs. Arizona Betting Trends
– The Utes have covered in eight of nine games this year, including in each of the last three games.
– Utah has covered in two of three road games this year.
– The over is 5-4 for Utah this year, including 3-0 on the road.
– Arizona is just 3-5 against the spread this year.
– The Wildcats are 0-2 against the spread when an underdog this year.
– The over has hit in five of nine games for the Wildcats this year, but just two of five times at home.
Keys to Utah vs. Arizona matchup
Article Continues BelowFor Utah, winning this game starts on the ground. The Utah ground game has been great all year. They are 21st in the nation in rushing yards per game and 13th in yards per attempt. Wayshawn Parker has led the way this year for Utah. He has run for 762 yards on 23 carries, with nine touchdowns. Still, he is not the only solid member of the running game. Quarterback Devon Dampier has been great on the ground. He has run for 481 yards and seven touchdowns this season. The running game will open the pass for Dampier, who has thrown for 2,053 yards and 20 touchdowns.
On defense, Utah needs to continue to dominate the turnover battle and in the red zone. Utah is allowing just 16.3 points per game this season, while sitting first in the nation in red zone defense. Arizona has struggled in the red zone this year, sitting 81st in red zone scoring. Meanwhile, Utah is holding opponent quarterbacks to just 51.3 percent completion, while having 13 interceptions. Noah Fifita, the Arizona quarterback, will throw interceptions under pressure, which Utah needs to take advantage of.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been great on offense this year. They are 20th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 19th in yards per game. Noah Fifita has been the primary reason for the offensive success. The senior quarterback is fifth in the nation in passing yards, with 2,794. He has also thrown 21 touchdowns, while rushing for another four. Still, he has been intercepted five times this year. Utah is 109th in the nation against the pass. If Arizona is going to get the upset in this one, Fifita will need to be the reason why.
On defense, the Wildcats need to be strong in the pass rush. The secondary is beat up, with players like Jay'Vion Cole, Malcolm Hartzog Jr., and Quinn Olson also dealing with injuries. This will lead to Arizona having to play younger players, such as Tyrese Boss and Johno Price, who have struggled at times. The best way to bail them out is to get to Dampier. Arizona is 30th in the nation in sack rate this year. Chase Kennedy is the star for the defensive pass rush with six sacks this year. Further, Dash Fifita has three sacks this year. While getting to the quarterback, they do have to keep Dampier contained, as he is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the nation.
Utah vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick
Utah is not just winning, but they have been dominant this year. They are 8-1 agaisnt the spread, and have covered by double digits three times this year. Meanwhile, Arizona has played just two ranked teams this year, and struggled in both of them. The Arizona defense is depleted and will be facing a physical run game. The Wildcats are 59th against the run this year, and with an injured group of defenders plus how Utah runs the ball, this will lead to massive games for both Wayshawn Parker and Devon Dampier. Arizona has been good at holding onto the ball this year. They are 16th in the nation in giveaways per game. Regardless, keeping the ball out of the hands of the Utah defense will be difficult. The Utes average nearly two takeaways per game, which is 12th in the nation. Both teams can score in a hurry, but with the ground game being the focus, expect Utah to bleed the clock and come out with a low-scoring victory.
Final Utah vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick: Utah -2.5 (-115) and Under 54.5 (-105)