The USC Trojans look for a second straight upset on the road, this time as they visit Indiana. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a USC-Indiana prediction and pick.
USC enters the game at 7-2 on the season. After a strong 4-0 start, the Trojans hosted Oregon. The Ducks built a lead in the game, but USC stormed back, tying the game on a Tanook Hines touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. With Dante Moore knocked out of the game for Oregon, Dylan Raiola took over and led Oregon to two fourth-quarter touchdown drives in the Ducks' 41-27 win. USC struggled a week later against Washington before besting Penn State on the road. They then visited Wisconsin. The offense was nearly completely shut down, scoring just seven points in the 24-7 loss. Last time out, they got their season back on track, with a 30-18 win over Ohio State. USC was off last weekend.
Meanwhile, Indiana is 8-1 this year. It has not been an easy path to eight wins. After a 3-0 start, Indiana hosted Northwestern on a Friday night. The Wildcats kept the game close, but Indiana came away with a 29-23 win. Two weeks later, after defeating Rutgers, Indiana needed two Nick Marsh touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat Nebraska 20-17. Then came their first loss of the season, falling to Ohio State, who had Julian Sayin at the time, 19-15. In their last two games, against Michigan and Minnesota, Indiana has needed overtime to win both games. Like USC, Indiana was off last week.
This will be just the fifth time that Indiana and USC have met. USC has won all four previous meetings, but the last time the two faced off was in 1982.
USC vs. Indiana Odds
USC: +8.5 (-110)
Indiana: -8.5 (-110)
Over: 50.5 (-110)
Under: 50.5 (-110)
Watch USC-Indiana LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)USC vs. Indiana Key Injuries
USC- WR Terrell Anderson (Out), WR Corey Simms (Out), S Kendarius Reddick (Out), S Trestin Castro (Out), LB Taylor “Taybo” Johnson (Out), LB Roman Marchetti (Out), OL Kilian O'Connor (Out), OL Hayden Treter (Out), TE Walter Matthews (Questionable)
Indiana- RB Turbo Richard (Out), DL Kellan Wyatt (Out), OL Joe Brunner (Out), LB Rolijah Hardy (Questionable), DB A.J. Harris (Probable)
USC vs. Indiana Betting Trends
– The Trojans have covered in just three of nine games this year, but have covered in two of the last three.
– USC has covered in one of three road games this year.
– The under is 5-4 for USC this year, and has his in four straight games.
– Indiana is just 1-8 against the spread this year.
– The Hoosiers are 0-6 against the spread at home this year
– The under has hit in six of nine games for Indiana this year, but just once at home.
Article Continues BelowKeys to USC vs. Indiana matchup
For USC, the offense has to find space. Indiana has been great against the run this year, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry and the sixth-fewest yards on the ground pr game. One of the biggest weapons for USC is King Miller. He has run for 680 yards and five touchdowns. Still, with the defensive front of Indiana, running the ball may not be as easy. This means Lincoln Riley needs to get creative on how to get Miller the ball in space and allow him to make big plays. Meanwhile, Trent Mosley and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt have both been great on the outside. Mosley has 32 receptions for 512 yards and six touchdowns, while Dixon-Wyatt has 32 receptions for 443 yards and four scores. If USC does not have to worry about Miller out of the backfield, they can add pressure on the wide receivers, shutting down the USC offense.
On defense, USC has to put Indiana in obvious passing situations. USC has not been great against the pass this year, sitting 66th in the nation, but they have an opprotunity here. Josh Hoover has been inconsistent as of late. In his last two games, he has completed just 16 of 37 passes for 200 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. If they know that Indiana is going to be in passing situations, it will also help cover Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. The duo has been great, hauling in a total of 88 receptions and 17 touchdowns. If USC can shut down those two, the next best receiver is Shazz Preston, who has 12 receptions for 177 yards.
For Indiana, it starts with establishing the running game. While Indiana is 41st in running yards per game this year, they have a solid two-headed attack in the backfield. Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. have been phenomenal this year. Richard has run the ball 113 times for 745 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Beebe has run for 715 yards on 134 carries, with four scores on his own. Indiana will not have Richard in this game, which means the pressure is going to fall to Beebe to get the ground game going. If Indiana can establish the running game, it will take pressure off of Hoover and also allow him time to get the ball to his big play receivers.
On defense, the Hoosiers need to get to Jayden Maiava. Maiava has been solid this year, passing for 2,524 yards and 20 touchdowns. Still, he is not a mobile threat and has thrown five interceptions. If the Hoosiers can get pressure on Maiava, they may be able to force some turnovers. Indiana is tenth in the nation in sack rate this year. This is led by Tobi Osunsanmi. The defensive lineman has ten sacks already this year. Meanwhile, Mario Landino and Stephen Daley each have five sacks this season.
USC vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick
Indiana has not been good since the loss to Ohio State. The offense has stalled out as of late, averaging just 14.3 points per game. Josh Hoover has struggled, and Indiana's run game has slowed down. With Richard out of the lineup, it could slow even more. Meanwhile, USC is playing great on defense. They held Ohio State to just 18 points last week, and since week six, they are ranked 19th in defensive explosiveness. Indiana has covered just one time this year, and there is no reason to expect that to change. Still, with the USC defense performing better and Indiana having an elite defense, the best play in this game is going to be on the total, as it will be a low-scoring contest.
Final USC vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick: USC +8.5 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-110)