UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan and Best Bets

The ghosts, ghouls, and goblins will all be out at the Meta Apex this Halloween night, as UFC Vegas 123 takes place during the celebration of All Hallows’ Eve.

Lightweights will be in action in the main event of the evening, as former title challenger Renato Moicano squares up with rising contender Tom Nolan.

Moicano has won five of his last seven and seven of his last ten fights. He comes into this bout off a submission of Chris Duncan this past April, a fight that broke a two-fight skid for him.

Nolan enters this fight 11-1 in professional MMA, including five wins in a row since dropping his UFC debut. Nolan last fought in June, defeating Fares Ziam.

The co-main event will be a welterweight clash between Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith.

Brown had been on a winning streak since 2021, winning seven of his eight fights between UFC 261 and UFC 302. Since then, however, he’s lost three of his last four, most recently losing to Kevin Holland at UFC 327.

Smith is 13-0, including a 4-0 record since joining the UFC off a Dana White’s Contender Series win in 2024. He enters this fight off a 92-second finish of Bruce Whitehead just a few weeks ago at UFC 332.

The rest of the UFC Vegas 123 main card includes Ode’ Osbourne vs. Cody Durden, Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos, and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov.

RENATO MOICANO VS TOM NOLAN

“Money” Moicano is particularly dangerous when it comes to grappling exchanges. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, Moicano is strong with his control on the ground, using positioning and submission attempts to dictate the pace there. Moicano additionally will mix in technical striking to help set up his takedown attempts. Nolan, meanwhile, is a highly athletic individual who has plenty of striking volume and aggression, looking to push the pace on his opponents. Nolan will have a three-inch height advantage in this one.

Nolan is younger, quicker, and has the striking pressure that can (and has) caused issues for opponents. He’ll, however, need to bring his A-game when taking on a more experienced Moicano, who has not only fought better competition and more competition, but also has experience in five-round main events.

BET: Moicano to win (Moneyline) (-118)

JEAN-PAUL LEBOSNOYANI VS FARMAN HASANOV

Lebosnoyani has been tested twice this year after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last year. He’s passed both tests so far, going the distance and earning decision wins over both Phil Rowe and Seokhyeon Ko. Lebosnoyani brings plenty of pressure to his opponents, and he’s dangerous on the ground as an excellent submission artist. But don’t get caught off guard; Lebosnoyani has the ability to finish things with his fists, too.

Hasanov is 6-0 and made his UFC debut in Baku this past summer, completely dominating Eric Nolan on the ground with nearly 12 minutes of control time, thanks to 17 successful takedowns. So we may be in for pressure vs. pressure in this matchup, and this fight may come down to if Lebosnoyani is able to fend off Hasanov’s early takedown attempts.

BET: Lebosnoyani -5.5 Alternate Point Spread (-160)

RODRIGO SEZINANDO VS THEODOR BERGGREN

The 8-2 Sezinando makes his second UFC appearance during the UFC Vegas 123 prelims, marking his first appearance since being stopped by Daniil Donchenko in the finale of The Ultimate Fighter season 33 last year. A champion on the regional scene, Sezinando is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with power in his hands. With four KO/TKOs and three submissions in his eight pro victories so far, Sezinando is a dangerous developing all-rounder. Berggren, meanwhile, is 8-4 and was stopped in his June UFC debut by the aforementioned Donchenko. He’s also a finisher, having won all of his victories thus far before the final horn.

Sezinando is the better-packaged fighter, but questions of ring rust will be there. He’ll also have to deal with Berggren’s reach advantage. Sezinando will have to use his grappling abilities and his own pressure to back up Berggren and spoil his edge, while Bergreen needs to get in the pocket and let Sezinando feel his power.

BET: Sezinando via KO/TKO or submission (Double Chance play) (DraftKings: +110)