UFC 331 Betting Splits: Where the Sharp Money Is Landing This Weekend
UFC 331 is delivering three of the widest handle-versus-bets gaps we've seen all year, and all three point in the same direction: sharp, professional money is stacking heavily on underdogs across the card while the betting public piles tickets onto the favorites.
When a fighter's share of the dollars dramatically outweighs their share of bets, that's the clearest signature of smart money working against the crowd.
Three Screaming Underdog Signals
The loudest signal on the entire card belongs to Charles Jourdain against Marlon Vera. Jourdain is the -218 favorite and holding 46% of bets, but he's carrying just 4% of the total handle. Vera, priced at +180, is pulling a staggering 96% of the money despite only 54% of tickets, a 42-point gap between his bet share and handle share. That kind of split means a relatively small number of large, informed wagers are overwhelming a much bigger pool of small public bets on the favorite, making Vera the clearest sharp play of fight week.
Almost identical in magnitude is Tai Tuivasa against Robelis Despaigne. Despaigne sits as a massive -700 favorite with 76% of bets but only 33% of the handle, while Tuivasa at +500 is drawing 67% of the money on just 24% of tickets, a 43-point gap.
Rounding out the top three is the featured lightweight clash between Mauricio Ruffy and Arman Tsarukyan, where Tsarukyan holds 74% of bets as the -340 favorite but only 34% of the handle, while Ruffy's +270 price is pulling 66% of the money on just 26% of tickets, a 40-point divergence that flags real sharp interest in the live underdog heading into fight night.
A Fourth Underdog Worth Watching
Alexandre Pantoja shows a smaller but still meaningful sharp signal in his flyweight matchup with Joshua Van. Van sits as the -135 favorite with 48% of bets but only 28% of the handle, while Pantoja at +114 is drawing 72% of the money against 52% of tickets, a 20-point gap. It's a more modest difference than the card's top three signals, but it still suggests professional bettors see value in the former champion at plus money rather than simply following the public's slight lean toward Van.
Sharp Favorites Holding Their Ground
Not every signal points to an upset. Gable Steveson stands out as a favorite backed by real money rather than just public hype, carrying 94% of the handle against Sean Sharaf despite only 82% of bets, a 12-point gap suggesting sharps are comfortable laying the enormous -2100 price. Brunno Ferreira also shows a mild sharp lean in the opposite direction, drawing 58% of the handle against Edmen Shahbazyan on just 47% of bets, an 11-point gap that favors the underdog rather than the -175 favorite.
For bettors chasing the smart money into UFC 331, Vera, Tuivasa, and Ruffy represent this week's clearest sharp underdog plays given their extreme reverse splits, while Pantoja offers secondary value and Steveson stands out as the rare heavily-favored side that sharps are still backing.
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