Trade grades for Jaguars-Falcons deal for Jessie Bates

The NFL trade deadline is just over 24 hours away.

And Monday morning delivered the latest big deal as teams try and improve ahead of the push for the playoffs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a move to shore up the back of the secondary, pulling off a trade for safety Jessie Bates III of the Atlanta Falcons. Here are the full terms of the deal:

Let’s hand out some grades.

The Jaguars look like one of the NFL’s elite teams.

Heading into Week 10, Jacksonville sits at 6-2, three games ahead of the Houston Texans in the AFC South. The Jaguars are a likely playoff team, and have some metrics to back up their elite status. Jacksonville is tops in the NFL with a point differential of +108, and when you look at “Team Tiers,” which examines both offenses and defenses through the lens of Expected Points Added, the Jaguars are on par with the San Francisco 49ers at the head of the pack:

So it is probably no surprise that general manager James Gladstone is going to be aggressive ahead of the NFL trade deadline. With the Jaguars in a clear window to contend, making a move like this makes a good deal of sense. And word out of Jacksonville in recent days held that the Jaguars were looking for “defensive playmakers,” and Bates certainly fits that description.

And with Atlanta paying most of the contract, that helps put this deal in a more favorable light for Jacksonville.

What brings the grade down a bit is the contract situation. Bates is in the final year of his contract, and is set to be an unrestricted free agent in 2027. This could mean he is a one-year rental for the Jaguars, which has to factor into the equation. Now, if Jacksonville were to sign him to a new deal, that would certainly bump the grade up a bit, but the contact has to play a role in the equation here.

Jaguars grade: B (which can improve with some extra credit, i.e., signing Bates to an extension).

On the one hand, it is something of a head-scratcher to see Atlanta trade away a key defensive player, given the fact that the Falcons are still in the thick of things in the NFC South playoff race.

If the NFC South playoff race could be described as such.

Atlanta sits at 3-6, at the bottom of the division. But they are not far behind the first-place Carolina Panthers (who clock in at 3-5) and with a win over the Panthers already this season, there is a case that Atlanta should be buying rather than selling.

But with Bates set to hit free agency, this might be the best opportunity to get something for him beyond a compensatory selection, and a second-round pick in 2027 and a fifth-round pick in 2028 is a nice little return. And there is also a chance that the Falcons would not get a compensatory pick, given the fact that Atlanta is set to have over $100 million in cap space next free agency cycle. If the Falcons are active enough in free agency, that would cancel out any compensatory selections, so getting picks now in hand is also a solid bit of business.

ESPN predicted over the weekend that a trade for Bates would cost a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick, so it seems Atlanta improved on that scenario as well.

Falcons grade: B+