MLB free agency has begun and Tarik Skubal is already receiving the most attention. Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in the sport. He won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025. He won't win the Cy Young this year after being traded at the deadline from the Detroit Tigers to the Los Angeles Dodgers and also missing time due to injury, but Skubal still performed well while on the mound. In all likelihood, Skubal is going to set a new contract record for starting pitchers — but what might his contract look like and which team will he ultimately sign with?
Skubal is a star, but there is risk for any team that signs him. He's undoubtedly going to command a jaw-dropping annual salary. It remains to be seen how the potential of a salary cap will impact teams' future spending, but that is something to keep in mind. The deadline for a new collective bargaining agreement is not until early December, so Skubal is expected to sign his massive new contract before then.
Skubal will turn 30 years old on November 20. He did deal with an injury this past season as mentioned, but he made 26 starts nonetheless. Still, giving any deal to a pitcher who is 30 or older comes with risk. Skubal is probably going to land a deal between six-ten years. $400 million has been the popular number, but I'll say he gets even more than that.
For the contract prediction, I'll say Tarik Skubal gets eight years and $410 million.
An eight-year deal for $410 million would Skubal a new contract record for pitchers both from a financial total amount and annual salary. I've seen various predictions suggest he will get around $350 million. Perhaps that will come to fruition, but it is difficult not to imagine that a heavy bidding war will drive his final contract agreement up. $410 million over eight years is a big amount without question, but Skubal has pitched well enough to earn this type of deal.
He pitched to league leading ERAs in both 2024 (2.39) and 2025 (2.21). Skubal also struck out 228 batters and 241 hitters in each of those seasons.
The left-hander wasn't quite as dominant in 2026. Still, his performance was especially impressive considering the fact that he not only missed time due to injury, but dealt with no shortage of trade rumors before ultimately getting moved at the deadline. Skubal ended up finishing the year with a combined 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts across 26 starts between the Tigers and Dodgers.
The question is which teams will be willing to cough up the money for such a lucrative deal? Well, teams that have interest will want to strike before a new collective bargaining agreement gets put in place. Fans can expect the usual suspects to be in the mix, but there may be some surprise teams as well.
Without further ado, let's rank Tarik Skubal's top 10 potential MLB free agency suitors.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are a no-brainer at No. 1 overall. LA hasn't exactly been shy about spending big money in recent years and, at the moment, there is no salary cap. If MLB gets its way, a salary cap could be put in place by 2028. The Dodgers will surely want to spend big now and worry about a salary cap later — if it does indeed end up getting added.
Skubal was traded to the Dodgers before the deadline in August. He pitched to a 2.61 ERA across 10 outings with LA. He also turned in a 2.45 ERA in his two postseason starts. After spending the first portion of his big league career in Detroit, the move to a big market clearly didn't faze him.
It seemed as if Skubal enjoyed his time with the Dodgers. Of course, only he knows how he truly feels, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him return. Money is no object for the Dodgers, so they will have an advantage if Skubal has interest in a reunion.
2. New York Mets
Speaking of money not being an object for a team, the Mets are rumored to be a destination for Skubal. The Dodgers and Mets are both two of the biggest spenders in the game. The difference is that LA's spending often translates to success, while New York has been inconsistent at best.
Bringing in a superstar such as Tarik Skubal would tell fans that the Mets want to compete with the best teams in the National League. It would give New York a true ace for years to come.
Now is the time to go all in for the Mets. They have not won the World Series since 1986. Owner Steve Cohen is giving the front office no shortage of money to spend. If New York brings in the right players, this ball club will be capable of snapping its World Series drought.
Barring unexpected circumstances, it seems likely that New York will at least inquire about Skubal.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will be a team to watch in the Skubal sweepstakes. They already have respectable pitching, but adding Skubal to their Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler-led rotation would give them an elite pitching staff.
The Phillies have been linked to a potential Skubal pursuit. They play in a big market and have displayed a willingness to dish out large deals in the past.
Much has been said about Philadelphia's current championship window closing soon as many of their stars either get older or will enter free agency fairly soon. Signing Skubal would not only boost their current championship window, but it would give Philadelphia a superstar to build around for years to come.
4. New York Yankees
Interestingly, the Yankees have not been mentioned as a Skubal suitor as much as some of the aforementioned ball clubs in this story. The Yankees have money to spend, though, and their fanbase is desperate for its first championship since 2009.
New York's strength is currently its rotation. The offense is what struggled this past season. The argument for signing Skubal would be that the Yankees are going all in on pitching. They don't necessarily have to spend big on position players. Instead, bringing in a few more respectable hitters to add balance to the lineup alongside Aaron Judge, Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger would suffice.
Going in that direction would allow the Yankees to go all in on a Tarik Skubal free agency pursuit. Still, this doesn't feel like the Yankees of 20 years ago who would have been at the top of this list.
5. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have been often discussed as a possible suitor for Skubal. Chicago dealt with pitching uncertainty throughout the '26 campaign. Yet, the ball club still reached the postseason before losing in the National League Wild Card round.
Offensively, Chicago has Pete Crow-Armstrong — who is expected to win the NL MVP — leading the charge. Why not go out and get one of the best starting pitchers in the sport as well?
A team led by Skubal and PCA is going to have a tremendous opportunity to compete for a long time. Baseball is a full team sport and obviously requires more than only star players (the Los Angeles Angels have learned that the hard way) but the Cubs happen to have a strong overall roster.
Adding Skubal would help them transition from a fairly strong postseason contender to a dangerous World Series contender.
6. Detroit Tigers
If Skubal hadn't previously pitched for the Tigers, Detroit probably wouldn't be on this list. He began his career in Detroit, however. Skubal won his two Cy Young Awards with the American League Central ball club. He's expressed a fondness for the team.
A reunion with the Tigers cannot be overlooked. Would the Tigers be able to dish out enough money to satisfy the superstar southpaw? Could Skubal consider taking a discount to pitch for the team? Only time will tell, but it wouldn't be completely shocking to see the Tigers challenge the big market teams in the Tarik Skubal MLB free agency sweepstakes.
It's not necessarily expected to occur. The Tigers deserve to be in the conversation, however.
7. San Diego Padres
The Padres are not always thought of as a big market team, yet they have consistently been linked to big names in recent years. San Diego isn't afraid to spend money. General manager AJ Preller likes to add stars to his baseball team.
The idea of pitching at one of baseball's most beautiful stadiums in Southern California for the rest of his career may appeal to Skubal. Plus, the Padres are a legitimate contender. They reached the NLDS this past season before losing to the eventual champion Milwaukee Brewers.
The Padres already have multiple large deals on their payroll, so it is uncertain how willing they would be to give out a $400 million contract this offseason. It's difficult to count San Diego out, however.
Signing Skubal may especially appeal to the Padres since it would mean the Dodgers would lose their best pitcher. Signing Skubal presents an opportunity to hurt the Dodgers while upgrading their own roster — which would be crucial when it comes to the NL West race.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are another team that simply cannot be overlooked in the Skubal sweepstakes. A few years ago, they were among the biggest challengers to the Dodgers for Shohei Ohtani in MLB free agency. Ohtani, of course, signed a $700 million contract with LA, but Toronto was seemingly in the conversation until the very end.
Could that happen once again with Skubal? Toronto may have additional motivation to take a chance on a big name pitcher again this offseason after things worked out well with Dylan Cease last year. Overall, it was a challenging campaign for the Jays, but Skubal would surely help them return to the postseason picture.
The Blue Jays have other questions to answer on their roster, though. Skubal would not solve all of their problems, but he would help to say the least.
9. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox play in one of baseball's biggest markets, yet they have not been linked to Skubal all that consistently. Boston reached the postseason in 2026 but was defeated in the AL Wild Card round by the Yankees. Still, it feels as if the Sox are close to emerging as a World Series contender.
Sonny Gray is now a free agent so starting pitching is a need for Boston. Perhaps they'd rather spend a lucrative amount of money on multiple free agents this offseason as opposed to just one superstar. Signing Freddy Peralta and a couple of hitters could be a route they take.
Given the market and the clear desire to win, however, the Red Sox should not be forgotten about. All it takes is the desire to pursue him. If they develop that desire, Boston is capable of challenging just about any team in free agency.
10. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox won't be the first team that people think of when it comes to the conversation of Tarik Skubal's landing destinations. So, why are they even in the mix here?
The White Sox have been discussed as a possible dark horse suitor. Chicago is fresh off a season that saw them clinch an AL Wild Card spot after winning 84 games. Despite losing in the ALCS to the Cleveland Guardians, it was still a successful campaign for Chicago given how much the team had struggled in previous years.
Article Continues BelowPitching is the White Sox's biggest need. Although they play in the AL Central, Chicago is not the smallest market. The White Sox have some money to spend.
Look, are the Sox realistically going to challenge free agency juggernauts such as the Dodgers and the Mets for Skubal? It seems unlikely, but anything is possible. For Skubal, his familiarity with the AL Central could make Chicago an appealing destination.
The White Sox will want to take the next step forward. Reaching the postseason was an impressive feat for them, but 84 wins is nothing to write home about. Skubal would surely help them increase that total next year.
The top contenders
Tarik Skubal is the best available free agent this offseason. He's one of the best pitching free agents in recent memory. Skubal features the kind of talent that can completely change the dynamic of a team. When he's on top of his game, Skubal is almost unhittable.
You are going to hear the Dodgers linked to him until Skubal puts pen to paper on his next contract. LA is understandably going to be considered a serious suitor.
However, the Mets and Phillies both have strong desires to build a championship roster right now. There is pressure on both ball clubs to overtake the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Money isn't an issue for either team, and they seemingly have reason to go all in on free agency this offseason.
The true dark horse
The Tigers are perhaps the most interesting team in this conversation. They struggled last year. It is unclear how close they are to contending once again. Yet, a Skubal pursuit remains realistic. I don't expect him to return to Detroit, but if the Tigers can offer a lucrative enough deal then it could happen.
The true dark horse, in my opinion, are the Padres. San Diego has been so close to reaching the Fall Classic over the years. Yet, the Padres have yet to win a World Series in their franchise history.
When you factor in current talent on the roster, a lack of franchise championships, and a clear desire to challenge the Dodgers, a Skubal pursuit seems extremely logical for San Diego.
From Skubal's standpoint, signing a contract with a California team would make sense. He was born in California and grew up in Arizona. It's difficult to imagine the Diamondbacks pursuing him, but signing with a California ball club would allow him to be close to Arizona. Also, it's quite difficult to beat the weather in San Diego.
Final prediction
I'd love to predict that the Padres will sign Skubal. It would add more competitive balance to the NL West while giving San Diego its best opportunity to win the World Series in 2027. Honestly, I'm tempted to just write Padres here and move forward. But, I have to be realistic.
The element of signing with a California team holds true for the Dodgers as well. Skubal already has familiarity with the Dodgers. LA is poised to make championship runs for years to come. The franchise has a proven track record of winning.
My prediction is that Tarik Skubal will sign his eight year, $410 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers just days before the CBA deadline in early December. And yes, his contract will surely impact discussions around a salary cap. However, it will not matter for Skubal since he will have signed his deal before any new rules come into play.
If the Dodgers end up not signing Tarik Skubal, however, I'll give the nod to the Padres. Of course, the Mets and Phillies remain strong suitors. The Padres may be just No. 7 overall on the aforementioned list of suitors, but they are a dark horse that should be taken seriously.