While the Pittsburgh Steelers try to sort through the ramifications of their recent trade, the Cleveland Browns are trying to figure out how to deal with facing Aaron Rodgers. It should be another unpredictable Thursday Night Football division matchup. And here is the fantasy football Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em for the Steelers and the Browns.
It’s hard to know if the defenses will be in charge in this game. But that’s what the Browns need to have a shot. It's unlikely they will score a ton of points against the Steelers’ defense.
Start ‘em: RB Jaylen Warren, Steelers
It’s all about workload here. With Rico Dowdle unlikely to go, Warren should get a full plate of ground work. And he should also get plenty of attention through the air.
Without Dowdle against the Bengals, Warren played 56 offensive snaps. That’s a 91.5% snap share, which is huge in the NFL these days. He had 17 carries for a career-high 127 rushing yards. Also, he caught all three of his targets for 49 yards.
Could this be a similar workload against the Browns? It’s possible, but it’s reasonable to temper expectations. Sometimes teams back off heavy Thursday usage for players who got a lot of work four days earlier. But the Steelers don’t have good options.
Warren has been surprisingly good this season. He ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per carry after contact. That’s a stat that matters.
And he has a good matchup against the Browns. They are allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game. So if Warren gets the bulk of the rushing attempts and the Steelers stick with the run, he should have a great chance to reach triple digits tonight.
Another stat to consider: The Browns have given up 13 runs of at least 10 yards through three games. The splash plays are available. The Steelers understand what they have in Warren, according to The Athletic.
“What a tough guy,” Rodgers said. “I’ve always had respect for him, playing against him, and then being his teammate now for a little more than a season. He is one of the toughest guys I’ve ever played with. And I just can’t say enough about his energy and the way he runs the football and the way he cares about his teammates.”
Warren has a great work ethic, too.
“This guy in practice, we could be faking a handoff,” offensive coordinator Brian Angelico said, “Aaron spits out a pass out to the flat or something, and Jaylen is literally sprinting 40 yards downfield to follow the ball. He just works every day.”
Get Warren in your starting lineup against the Browns.
Start ‘em: WR DK Metcalf, Steelers
If you look only at what Metcalf has accomplished this season, you might be hesitant to start him. He has 4, 4, and 3 catches in three games despite getting 24 total targets.
However, Rodgers found him in the end zone against the Bengals. And that could be the start of a better trend for Metcalf. The talent is there. He just needs a better connection with Rodgers.
Of course, you have to be concerned whether Rodgers will keep chucking targets in Metcalf’s direction. Metcalf already has three drops this season. But Rodgers and other recognize that while Metcalf hasn’t lived up to expectations, he is needed, according to the Richard Sherman podcast via steelersdepot.com.
“One negative thing that I have about the Pittsburgh Steelers is DK Metcalf,” Sherman said. “They need him to show up in a bigger way. They paid him a lot of money. He has not looked the same since last year. If they can get DK Metcalf going, if they can get him to really start buying in, I think they got a really great chance to win the (AFC) North.”
Article Continues BelowAnd that’s motivation for the Steelers to keep peppering Metcalf with targets.
Sit ‘em: WR KC Concepcion, Browns
After a nine-target, two-catch performance against the Panthers, Concepcion is no longer a viable fantasy weapon. And since the Steelers have a decent defense, it’s an even stronger pass on him for this week.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Browns are trying to work through the issues, according to the Browns’ YouTube page via heavy.com.
“It’s just, again, there’s different looks,” Watson said. “At the same time, these guys are rookies, KC and (Denzel) Boston. Especially playing any receiver, or any person that knows that playing in the slot in the NFL is a lot. It’s a lot of different moving parts, a lot of different coverages. They can match. They can zone off. You got linebackers, defenders. So, it takes some time to be able to recognize all the different coverages and things that defenses can do.
“And it’s week to week. Every team is different. You’re not going to get the same that you did in Tampa versus Carolina, same thing moving forward on Thursday night. So, that’s just kind of, the more reps, the more experience that we get playing with each other and seeing the same thing, it’ll get better for sure.”
Sit ‘em: RB Quinshon Judkins, Browns
It’s more matchup than anything else. Judkins carried 18 times for 70 yards last week against the Panthers. But it’s hard to see the success continuing this week. He has gotten plenty of workload this season, but hasn’t been the most efficient running back.
Judkins hasn’t averaged more than four yards per carry in a game in almost a full year. Over the last 12 games, his average per carry is 2.9. And the Browns aren’t exactly going scorched earth on opposing defenses while trying to run the ball.
And that’s why Judkins is a “sell high” candidate, according to fantasylife.com.
“Below-average (at best) offense aside, Judkins simply doesn't look like the same explosive running back we saw in his rookie year before his knee injury,” Joe Metz wrote. “He's averaged only 3.0 yards per rush this season and has yet to break a run longer than 11 yards. He's still dominating the rushing work (71% of team attempts) with 100% of the attempts inside the five-yard line, but they simply haven't amounted to anything of value.
“Raheim Sanders has stepped up as a thorn in Judkins' side with Dylan Sampson sidelined (36% routes and 12% target share, tied with Judkins), capping his pass-game ceiling in an offense that will still face plenty of negative game script.”